ODKA Ülkelerinin Savunma Harcama Yakınsaması: Çok Kırılmalı Fourier Panel Birim Kök Testinden Kanıtlar

Yıl 2023, , 183 - 199, 27.12.2023

İbrahim Sezer Belliler

https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1190962

Öz

Bölgesel çatışmaların bile küresel ölçekte siyasi ve askeri krizlere yol açtığı günümüzde, ülkelerin savunma harcamaları bütçe içindeki önemini giderek arttırmaktadır. Dahil oldukları politik, askeri örgütlere veya komşularına göre savunma harcamalarını şekillendiren ülkelerin bu noktada yakınsama davranışı göstermesi beklenmektedir. Bu çalışma 1977-2021 yılları arasında 12 ODKA ülkesinin (Cezayir, Bahreyn, Mısır, İran, İsrail, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Fas, Umman, Suudi Arabistan, Tunus, Türkiye) savunma harcama yüklerini ele almaktadır. Breusch-Pagan (1980), Pesaran (2004) Scaled LM, Pesaran CD (2004), Baltagi, Feng ve Kao (2012) testlerinin tamamı yatay kesit bağımlılığın olmadığını ifade eden temel hipotezi reddetmiştir. Yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan birim kök testlerinin kullanılması bu bağlamda daha doğru olacaktır. Savunma harcama yüklerinin yakınsama analizinin gerçekleştirilebilmesi için Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı ve birimler arası heterojenliği dikkate alan Bahmani-Oskooee(2014)’nin Çok Kırılmalı Fourier Panel Birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Araştırma bulgularına göre bazı ODKA ülkelerin yakınsama davranışı göstermediği alternatif hipotez reddedilememiştir. Bahreyn, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Suudi Arabistan ve Türkiye ODKA ortalamasına yakınsama davranışı göstermiştir. Amerika ve İsrail’in savunma harcama ortalamasına yakınsama gösteren ülkeler ise Bahreyn, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Suudi Arabistan ve Türkiye olarak bulunmuştur. Türkiye’nin NATO üyesi olması sebebiyle ABD’ye yakınsama davranışı göstermesi beklentilere uygunluk göstermektedir. Türkiye ve Suudi Arabistan’ın bölge içindeki ağırlığını arttırmak istemesi de ABD ve İsrail’e yakınsamasını açıklamaktadır. Bölgede gerçekleşen Körfez savaşı ve Arap Baharı gibi olaylar ani kırılma tarihlerinde tespit edilmiştir. Herbir ülke için eklenen fourier terimlerine uygulanan F testine göre sonuçlar istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur. Sonuç olarak elde edilen bulguların bölge içinde bulunan ülkelerin savunma harcama yüklerinin nasıl şekillendirdiklerinin açıklanabilmesi açısından önem arz etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Askeri Harcamalar, Yakınsama Hipotezi, Fourier Panel Birim Kök Testi

Convergence of Military Expenditures in MENA Countries: Evidences from a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test with Multiple Breaks

Öz

Nowadays, even regional conflicts can lead to political and military crises on a global scale, and military expenditures have become more important in countries’ budgets. Countries that shape their military spending according to the political and military organizations of which they are a part are expected along with their neighbors to exhibit convergent behavior in this regard. This study examines the military expenditures of 12 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries (i.e., Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Turkey) from 1977-2021. The null hypothesis stating no cross-sectional dependence to exist has been rejected by all of the Breusch-Pagan (1980), the scaled Lagrange multiplier (LM) Pesaran and Pesaran’s cross-sectional dependency (CD; 2004), and also LM (2012) tests. In this context, using unit root tests that take into account cross-sectional dependence would be more accurate. Bahmani-Oskooee et al.’s (2014) Fourier panel unit root test with multiple breaks, which takes into account cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity between units, was used to perform the convergence analysis of military burdens. According to the research findings, the alternative hypothesis that some MENA countries did not imply convergent behavior could not be rejected. The military expenditures of Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey were found to converge with the MENA mean and the military expendituresof the United States and Israel. Due to being a NATO member, Turkey’s behavior is expected to converge with the United States. Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s motivation for enhancing their weight in the region also explains their convergence with the US and Israel. Events such as the Gulf War and the Arab Spring that took place in the region stand out with regard to sudden break dates. The findings were determined to be statistically significant in accordance with the F test performed on the Fourier terms added for each country. In conclusion, the findings are significant for understanding how the military expenditures of MENA countries are formed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Military expenditures, convergence hypothesis, Fourier panel unit root

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