Determinants of Public Support for the European Union Membership in Türkiye in 2025

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 43, 269 - 284, 26.12.2025

Adviye Damla Ünlü Bektaş

https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2025.43.1832195

https://izlik.org/JA64CF92XT

Öz

This study examines the contemporary determinants of public support for Türkiye’s membership of the European Union (EU) based on original micro-level survey data from 2025. While most existing studies rely on pre-2015 datasets, this article focuses on the post-stagnation and de-Europeanization period and offers a reassessment of public support for EU membership in Türkiye. The research draws on data from the KONDA Barometer Survey conducted with 2,106 respondents in 29 provinces across Türkiye and employs a binary logistic regression model to analyse the effects of economic expectations, identity (lifestyle), demographic characteristics, and political attitudes on support for EU membership within a single integrative framework. The findings reveal that, as of 2025, support for EU membership in Türkiye is shaped predominantly by identity-based cleavages and political positioning more strongly than by economic considerations alone. In particular, support is particularly high among individuals who define their lifestyle as “modern” and among voters of the CHP and the DEM Party. Women and younger cohorts display relatively higher levels of support, whereas support is comparatively lower in metropolitan areas. These patterns indicate that public attitudes towards EU membership have become increasingly embedded in domestic political polarisation and value-based identity divisions. The findings have important implications for understanding the future trajectory of EU-Türkiye relations, emphasising the central role of domestic political and societal dynamics in shaping contemporary public support for European integration.

Anahtar Kelimeler

European Union , EU Enlargement , Public Opinion , Türkiye

Kaynakça

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