Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Ticari Açıklık, Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Bir Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Yıl 2019, Sayı: 31, 1 - 16, 31.12.2019

Mehmet Zeki Ak Veysel İnal

Öz

Öz 1980’lerin başından günümüze pek çok gelişmekte olan ülke, kapalı ekonomi modelini terk ederek, dışa açık büyüme modelini benimsemiştir. Dışa dönük büyüme modelinin amacı “ulusal ekonominin dünya ekonomisi ile bütünleşme derecesini mutlak olarak arttırmak” olmuştur. Şöyle de söylenebilir: Ekonominin büyüme hızının yüksek ve kalıcı olması için yapılması gereken uluslararası mal ve hizmet ticareti ile sermaye akımlarını serbest bırakmaktır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin tarihsel deneyimleri yeni büyüme modelinin ekonomiyi daha kırılgan ve uluslararası konjonktüre daha bağımlı hale getirdiğini göstermiştir. Bu çalışma ticari açıklık, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkileri 15 yükselen piyasa ekonomisine için 2002-2016 dönemi verilerini kullanılarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada, seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin anlaşılması için Dumitrescu Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi ve ülke özelinde sonuçlar elde etmeye olanak sağlayan Kónya (2006) panel nedensellik testleri tercih edilmiştir. Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre, seçili ülkeler için ele alınan dönemde ticari açıklık, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığını göstermektedir. Kónya (2006) nedensellik testine ait ülke özelindeki nedensellik sonuçları ise Kolombiya, Malezya, Filipinler, Rusya ve Türkiye’de finansal gelişmeden ekonomik büyümeye doğru nedenselliğin olduğunu göstermektedir. Elde edilen diğer bulgular değişkenler arasında nedenselliğin olmadığı yönündedir. Bu sonuçlara göre, ekonomik büyümenin, ticari açıklığın ve finansal gelişimin birbirinden bağımsız olarak geliştiğini söylenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ticari açıklık, Finansal gelişme, Ekonomik büyüme, Panel nedensellik analizi

Destekleyen Kurum

Yazarlar bu çalışma için finansal destek almamışlardır.

Trade Openness, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies: A Panel Causality Analysis

Öz

Since the early 1980s, many developing countries have abandoned the closed economy model and adopted the open growth model. The aim of the outward growth model was to “increase the degree of integration of the national economy with the world economy in absolute terms”. It can also be said that it keeps the growth rate of the economy high and permanent, and releases international trade in goods and services and capital flows. The historical experience of developing countries has shown that the new growth model makes the economy more fragile and more dependent on the international conjuncture. This study aims to examine the relationships between trade openness, financial development and economic growth by using data from 2002 to 2016 for 15 emerging market economies. In order to understand the causality relationship between the series, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test and Kónya (2006) panel causality tests, which enable obtaining country-specific results, were preferred. According to the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test results, there is no causal relationship between commercial openness, financial development and economic growth in the period considered for selected countries. The Kónya (2006) causality test results in the specific countries of Colombia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey show that financial development shows that a country’s economic growth causality. According to the Kónya (2006) causality test in Colombia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey, there is a causality from financial development to economic growth. Other findings suggest that there is no causality between the variables. According to these results, it can be said that economic growth, trade deficit and financial development develop independently of each other.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Trade openness, Financial development, Economic growth, Panel causality analysis

Kaynakça

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