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Trade Balance, Real Exchange Rate and Trade Policy Uncertainty in Türkiye: Evidence from the SVAR Approach

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 40, 63 - 75, 26.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2024.40.1354907

Öz

In recent years, the trade wars, the global economic crisis and protectionist policies have created a climate of trade policy uncertainty in the world economy. The increased uncertainty had important impacts on economic variables, in particular on foreign trade and exchange rates. As a result, the attention of researchers and policy makers has been focused on this area. Also, it is a well-known fact that uncertainties have a greater impact on developing countries with economies that are more vulnerable to shocks and risks. From all of these facts, the aim of this study is to investigate the relationships between exchange rate, trade balance and trade policy uncertainty by using structural VAR (SVAR) analysis for the 1960:Q1-2020:Q4 period in Türkiye. The results show that there exists a significant relationship between trade policy uncertainty, the trade balance and the exchange rate in the long term. The response of trade policy uncertainty to shocks to the trade balance and to the exchange rate is statistically significant and negative. The response of the exchange rate to trade balance shocks is statistically significant and positive. An increase in the trade balance increases the exchange rate and reduces trade policy uncertainty.

Kaynakça

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Yıl 2024, Sayı: 40, 63 - 75, 26.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2024.40.1354907

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2020). 60 years of uncertainty: Our new index provides novel insights into an amorphous concept. Finance & Development, March 2020, 58-60. google scholar
  • Akbostanci, E. (2004). Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 40(5), 57-73. google scholar
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  • Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A., & Raffo, A. (2019). Does trade policy uncertainty affect global economic activity?. FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 4, 2019, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2445. google scholar
  • CBRT. (2023). Electronic Data Delivery System. https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/ (Accessed 15 January 2022). google scholar
  • Çekin, S. E., & Nuroğlu, E. (2020). Ticaret savaşlarının uluslararası ticaret ve reel ekonomiye etkisi. UİİİD-IJEAS, 27, 73-90. google scholar
  • Ceyhan, T., & Gürsoy, S. (2021). The J-curve hypothesis: An analysis for Turkey. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 12(3), 1169-1181. google scholar
  • Chen, J., Huang, Y., Ren, X., & Qu, J. (2022). Time-varying spillovers between trade policy uncertainty and precious metal markets: Evidence from China-US trade conflict. Resources Policy, 76, 102577. google scholar
  • Cooley, T. F., & Leroy, S. F. (1985). A theoretical macroeconometrics: A critique. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(3), 283-308. google scholar
  • Crowley, M., Meng, N., & Song, H. (2018). Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms. Journal of International Economics, 114, 96-115. google scholar
  • Demirtaş, G. (2014). Türkiye ve Almanya arasındaki dış ticaret dengesinin sınır testi yaklaşımıyla incelenmesi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 43, 83-106. google scholar
  • Durusoy, Ö. T., & Tokatlıoğlu, İ. (1997). Devalüasyon ve J-eğrisi. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 8(24-25), 65-79. google scholar
  • Enders, W. (2010). Applied econometric time series. Wiley, UK. google scholar
  • Facchini, G., Liu, M. Y., Mayda, A. M., & Zhou, M. (2019). China’s “Great Migration”: The impact of the reduction in trade policy uncertainty. Journal of International Economics, 120, 126-144. google scholar
  • Federal Reserve Economic (FRED). (2023). Trade Policy Uncertainty Index. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EPUTRADE. (Accessed 15 January 2022). google scholar
  • Furceri, D., Hannan, S.A., Ostry, J.D., & Rose, A.K. (2020). Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries. Journal of Policy Modelling. 42, 850-859. google scholar
  • Göçer, İ., & Elmas, B. (2013). Genişletilmiş Marshall-Lerner koşulu çerçevesinde reel döviz kuru değişimlerinin Türkiye’nin dış ticaret performansına etkileri: Çoklu yapısal kırılmalı zaman serisi analizi. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 7(1), 137-157. google scholar
  • Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2016). Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies, 29, 523-564. google scholar
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Toplam 90 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonometri (Diğer)
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALESI
Yazarlar

Fatma Ünlü 0000-0003-1822-9965

Yayımlanma Tarihi 26 Haziran 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 4 Eylül 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Sayı: 40

Kaynak Göster

APA Ünlü, F. (2024). Trade Balance, Real Exchange Rate and Trade Policy Uncertainty in Türkiye: Evidence from the SVAR Approach. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics(40), 63-75. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2024.40.1354907