Algeria’s Path to Sustainable Economic Development: Is it on Track or Not?

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 40, 76 - 97, 26.06.2024

Bouazza Elamine Zemrı , Sidi Mohamed Boumediene Khetib

https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2024.40.1361258

Öz

In today’s world, achieving sustainable economic development is a critical challenge for all nations. Their approach to progress is an attempt to harmonize economic growth with environmental protection and social well-being, ensuring that the needs of the present are met without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own. This study focuses on Algeria, a nation striving to transition towards a more sustainable economic model. While the country has implemented various strategies aimed at economic diversification, renewable energy adoption, and foreign investment engagement, a comprehensive assessment of their effectiveness and future impact remains lacking. This study aims to fill this gap by providing a holistic analysis of Algeria’s progress towards sustainable economic development. It goes beyond traditional single-factor assessments by employing a comprehensive framework and utilizing the ARIMA model and Box-Jenkins methodology to forecast the key indicators of GDP per capita, CO2 emissions per capita, and unemployment rate. The results of the analysis reveal a mixed outlook. While the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model predicts promising economic development, the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model raises concerns about rising CO2 emissions, and the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model indicates a persistently high unemployment rate. These projections suggest that while Algeria is making strides towards improving the economy, significant challenges remain in achieving environmental sustainability and social inclusion.

JEL Classification : C22 , C32 , Q56 , O55

Anahtar Kelimeler

ARIMA model, Algeria, Box-Jenkins method, forecast, sustainable economic development.

Kaynakça

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