Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volume in BRICS and G7 Countries: Panel Data Analysis

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 41, 1 - 12, 26.12.2024

Zeynep Morçiçek

https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2024.41.1308676

Öz

In line with the advancements in the international monetary system from the 1870s to the present day, countries have adopted both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. Under the fixed exchange rate regime, countries preferred to realize devaluation by devaluing their currencies to gain a competitive advantage and reach the desired commercial position, especially in the 1930s. However, this situation caused the trading partner countries to resort to retaliatory monetary and trade policies afterward. Thus, countries entered a competitive devaluation cycle one after another. Furthermore, it is known that countries make various interventions in the foreign exchange market to gain a competitive advantage under the flexible exchange rate regime applied under today’s conditions. Especially after the global financial crisis, countries accusing each other of exchange rate manipulation brought these debates back to today’s agenda. The present study examined the exchange rate volatility of both developed (G7) and developing (BRICS) countries and its effect on export volume by panel data analysis. In the analysis, the exchange rate volatility of countries was accepted as the main determining variable on export volume. Whereas empirical findings confirmed the effect of exchange rate volatility on export volume in BRICS countries, it was found that exchange rate volatility has no effect on export volume in G7 countries. Moreover, since the effect of exchange rate volatility on export volume in BRICS countries is negative, it was understood that exchange rate volatility causes a trade contraction effect. However, a similar conclusion could not be reached for G7 countries. In this regard, our study is important in that exchange rate volatility affects developed and developing countries in different ways and this difference needs to be revealed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange Rate Regimes, Exchange Rate Volatility, Export Volume, International Trade, Panel Data Analysis

BRICS ve G7 Ülkelerinde Döviz Kuru Oynaklığının İhracat Hacmi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

1870’li yıllardan günümüze kadar uluslararası para sisteminde yaşanan gelişmeler doğrultusunda ülkeler hem sabit hem de esnek döviz kuru rejimlerini benimsemiştir. Sabit döviz kuru rejimi altında, özellikle 1930’lu yıllarda ülkeler rekabet üstünlüğü yakalamak ve ticari anlamda arzu edilen konuma ulaşmak adına para birimlerinin değerini düşürerek devalüasyon yapmayı tercih etmişlerdir. Ancak, bu durum ticari partner ülkelerinin de ardından misillemeci para ve ticaret politikalarına başvurmalarına yol açmıştır. Böylece, ülkeler birbiri ardına rekabetçi devalüasyon döngüsüne girmişlerdir. Bunun yanı sıra, günümüz koşullarında uygulanan esnek döviz kuru rejimi altında ülkelerin rekabet avantajı elde etmek uğruna döviz piyasasına çeşitli müdahalelerde bulunduğu bilinmektedir. Özellikle, küresel finans krizinden sonra ülkelerin birbirlerini kur manipülasyonuyla suçlaması günümüz sahnesine bu tartışmaları tekrardan çıkarmıştır. Bu çalışmada, hem gelişmiş (G7) hem de gelişmekte olan (BRICS) ülkelerin döviz kuru oynaklığı ve bunun ihracat hacmi üzerindeki etkisi panel veri analizi ile incelenmektedir. Analizde ülkelerin döviz kuru oynaklıkları, ihracat hacmi üzerinde esas belirleyici değişken olarak ele alınmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, BRICS ülkelerinde döviz kuru oynaklığının ihracat hacmi üzerindeki etkisini doğrularken, G7 ülkelerinde döviz kuru oynaklığının ihracat hacmi üzerinde etkisi bulunmamıştır. Ayrıca, BRICS ülkelerinde döviz kuru oynaklığının ihracat hacmi üzerindeki etkisi negatif olduğundan döviz kuru oynaklığının ticaret daraltıcı bir etkiye yol açtığı anlaşılmıştır. Ancak G7 için benzer bir sonuca varılamamıştır. Bu kapsamda, çalışmamız döviz kuru oynaklığının gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeleri farklı yönlerde etkilemesi ve bu ayrımın ortaya konması adına önem taşımaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz Kuru Rejimleri, Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı, İhracat Hacmi, Uluslararası Ticaret, Panel Veri Analizi

Teşekkür

İlginiz için teşekkür ederim.

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