YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI VE ADAPTİF NÖROBULANIK SİSTEMLER İLE 3. İSTANBUL HAVALİMANI TALEP TAHMİNİ VE TÜRK HAVA YOLLARI İÇ HAT FİLO OPTİMİZASYONU

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 2, 141 - 156, 31.10.2019

Metehan Atay , Yunus Eroğlu , Serap Ulusam Seçkiner

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, İstanbul Atatürk Havalimanı’na
ikame olarak inşa edilen 3. İstanbul havalimanının gelecek yıllardaki yolcu ve
yük talebini, İstanbul Atatürk Havalimanının geçmiş dönem verileri ile Yapay
Sinir Ağları (YSA) ve Adaptif Ağ Tabanlı Bulanık Mantık Çıkarım Sistemi (ANFIS)
yöntemleri kullanılarak tahmin etmek, muhtemel kapasiteye ışık tutmak ve ön
görülen operasyon hacmini gerçekleştirebilmek adına muhtemel uçak filosunu
finansal ve fiziksel kısıtlar kullanılarak senaryolar altında
planlayabilmektir. Çalışmanın verileri Türk İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) tarafından
derlenmiş olup normalizasyon sürecine tabi tutulmuştur. Hata ölçüm metodu
olarak Kare Kök Ortalama Hata (RMSE) ve Hata Kareleri Toplamı (SSE) karşılaştırmalı
olarak kullanılmış ve performansları değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları
3. Havalimanının önümüzdeki senelerdeki tahmini yolcu ve yük değerlerinin yanında
muhtemel talebe karşılık verip veremeyeceği ve havalimanının performans
karakteristiği hakkında önemli bilgiler içermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yapay Sinir Ağı, Bulanık Mantık, Tahminleme, Filo Planlama

Kaynakça

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