NÜFUS BÜYÜME PROJEKSİYONU İLE BÜTÜNLEŞİK SİMÜLASYON TABANLI POLİKLİNİK KAPASİTE YÖNETİMİ

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 3, 420 - 438, 31.12.2020

Muhammed Ordu Eren Demir Chris Tofallis

https://doi.org/10.46465/endustrimuhendisligi.767201

Öz

Hastanelerdeki insan kaynakları ve bütçe gibi kısıtlı kaynaklar, artan hastane taleplerini karşılamak için yetersiz kalabilmekte ve bu durum hastanelerdeki sağlık hizmeti sağlayıcıları için yoğun iş yüküne neden olabilmektedir. Travma ve ortopedi poliklinikleri İngiltere’deki hastanelerde en yüksek hasta aktivitesine ve takipli tedavi sayısına sahiptir. Bu çalışma, tam teşekküllü bir İngiliz hastanesinde travma ve ortopedi polikliniğinin projeksiyonu için klinik kullanım oranlarının hesaplanmasında Ulusal İstatistik Ofisi ile entegre simülasyon tabanlı bir karar destek sisteminin geliştirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Hastanenin hizmet verdiği yerleşim bölgesinin yıllar itibari ile büyüme projeksiyonları göz önünde bulundurularak, hastanenin gelecekteki üç yıllık talebi ele alınmıştır. Senaryo analizinde, klinik kullanım oranını etkileyen üç parametre (Talep, klinik zaman dilimi ve hasta takip sayısı) içeren deneysel bir analiz dikkate alınmıştır. En düşük, ortalama ve en yüksek olmak üzere üç farklı klinik kullanım oranları, öngörülen her bir yıl için toplam 8 deneyden oluşan senaryo analizi yoluyla travma ve ortopedi polikliniği için hesaplanmıştır. Bu çalışma da ayrıca tedavi süreleri ve doktorların yıllık tam zamanlı çalışma süreleri dikkate alınarak öngörülen her bir yıl için ihtiyaç duyulan doktor sayıları belirlenmiştir. Geliştirilen bu karar destek sistemi, klinik kullanım oranlarının polikliniklerde daha iyi anlaşılması ve gelecekte ihtiyaç duyulacak personel, yeterli bütçe ve ekipman gibi kaynak ihtiyaçlarının önceden tespit edilmesi ve daha iyi kaynak planlamalarının yapılabilmesi için hastane yönetimine bir öngörü sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kapasite Yönetimi, Simülasyon, Travma ve ortopedi polikliniği, Klinik kullanımı, Nüfus büyüme oranı

SIMULATION-BASED OUTPATIENT CLINIC CAPACITY MANAGEMENT INTEGRATED WITH POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTION

Öz

Limited resources (i.e. human resources and budget) in hospitals may be inadequate to meet increasing demand and this causes intense workload for healthcare providers in hospitals. Trauma and orthopedics outpatient clinics involve the highest patient activity and number of follow-up treatments in hospitals in England. This study aims to develop a simulation-based decision support system integrated with the Office for National Statistics in order to calculate clinic utilization rates of a trauma and orthopedics outpatient clinic for projection in England. The future 3-year demand of the hospital was tackled by considering growth projections of the region where the hospital serves. An experimental analysis including 3 parameters (i.e. demand, clinic slot and number of follow-up) affecting the clinic utilization rate, was taken into account in the scenario analysis. Three different clinic utilization rates (i.e. lowest, average and highest) were calculated for the trauma and orthopedics outpatient clinic through the scenario analysis which involves a total of 8 experiments for each projected year. In addition, number of consultants required for each projected year in this study were specified by considering treatment time and consultants' full time equivalent working time. Developed this study provides an insight into hospital management for better understanding of clinic utilization rates in outpatient clinics, for proactively determining required resources (i.e. staff, adequate budget and equipment) in future, and for better resource planning.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Capacity management, Simulation, Trauma and orthopedics outpatient clinic, Clinic utilization, Population growth rate

Kaynakça

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