The Impact of Oil Prices on The Transportation Industry Stock Returns: The Case of the Turkish Equity Market

Öz

This study examines the impact of crude oil prices on Turkey's transportation sector stock returns. For this purpose, ARDL Bound Test approach is utilized to investigate both long-run and short-run impacts. Research findings show that crude oil prices have an adverse impact on stock returns in the short-run since oil is a crucial input for transportation firms. However, in the long-run, increasing oil prices enhance stock returns in the sector. The oligopolistic market structure of the industry can explain this result. This study also investigates the impact of other factors on stock returns, such as macroeconomic activity, aggregate stock market performance, and global economic policy uncertainty. The results imply that transportation sector returns are also highly sensitive to macroeconomic and aggregate stock market performances. On the other hand, global economic policy has no significant impact on stock returns in the sector. Besides its academic contribution to the literature, the findings of this research offer precious practical implications for financial investors, industry stakeholders, and policymakers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Stock returns
• Crude oil
• ARDL Bound Test
• Transportation industry

Petrol Fiyatlarının Ulaştırma Sektörü Hisse Senedi Getirilerine Etkisi: Türkiye Hisse Senedi Piyasası Örneği

Öz

Bu araştırmanın amacı ham petrol fiyatlarının Türkiye’de ulaştırma sektörü hisse senedi getirileri üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Çalışma kapsamında ARDL sınır testi kullanılmış olup hem uzun dönem hem de kısa dönem etkiler irdelenmiştir. Araştırma bulguları, petrol fiyatlarının ulaştırma firmaları için en önemli girdilerin başında gelmesi nedeniyle kısa dönemde hisse senedi getirilerini olumsuz etkilediğini göstermektedir. Öte yandan, uzun dönemde artan petrol fiyatları sektördeki hisse senedi getirilerini artırmaktadır. Bu sonuç, sektörün oligopolistik piyasa yapısı ile açıklanabilir. Bu çalışmada ayrıca makroekonomik aktivite, hisse senedi piyasalarının performansı ve küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği gibi diğer faktörlerin hisse senedi getirileri üzerindeki etkisini de araştırılmıştır. Bulgular, ulaştırma sektörü getirilerinin makroekonomik ve endeks performanslarına da oldukça duyarlı olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Öte yandan, küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin sektör getirileri üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi görülmemektedir. Yazına akademik katkısının yanı sıra, bu araştırmanın bulguları finansal yatırımcılar, sektör paydaşları ve politika yapıcılar için de önemli pratik çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hisse senedi getirisi
• Ham Petrol
• ARDL Sınır Testi
• Ulaştırma Sektörü

Kaynakça

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