Politik Risk ile Genişletilmiş Çekim Modeli: Türkiye’nin İkili Ticareti için Bir Uygulama

Öz

20. yüzyılın ikinci yarısından itibaren hızlanan küreselleşme ile birlikte uluslararası ticaretin hacminde büyük bir artış gerçekleşmiş ve beraberinde kompozisyonunda da değişim gözlemlenmiştir. Bununla birlikte tüm dünyada aynı dönemde politik riskin yükseldiği bilinmektedir. Önemi giderek artan bir risk türü olan politik risk, uluslararası ticaretin yönü ve bileşimi üzerinde güçlü etkilere sahiptir. Buna rağmen literatür politik risk ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiyi yoğun biçimde incelerken uluslararası ticaret ile politik risk ilişkisini test eden çalışmalar ise son derece az sayıdadır. Türkiye’nin 45 ticaret ortağının yer aldığı bu çalışmada politik riskin Türkiye’nin dış ticareti üzerindeki etkisi 2003-2017 dönemi için panel çekim modeli çerçevesinde analiz edilmiştir. Genelleştirilmiş momentler yönteminin kullanıldığı mevcut analizin sonuçlarına göre partner ülkelerin kişi başına düşen reel gayri safi yurt içi hasılası ile risk faktör endeksinin Türkiye’nin dış ticaretinde önemli belirleyiciler oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca risk bileşenlerinden yalnızca yolsuzluk, sosyoekonomik koşullar, iç çatışma ve kanun ile düzen risklerinin uluslararası ticaret üzerinde etkili olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Politik Risk
• Uluslararası Ticaret
• Çekim Modeli
• GMM Tahmincisi

An Augmented Gravity Model with Political Risk: An Application of Türkiye

Öz

With globalization accelerating since the second half of the 20th century, there has been a great increase in the volume of international trade and a change in its composition has also been observed. However, it is known that political risk has increased in the same period all over the world. Political risk, an increasingly important type of risk, has strong effects on the direction and composition of international trade. Nevertheless, while the literature intensively examines the relationship between political risk and FDI, there are very few studies that test the relationship between international trade and political risk. This study, which includes 45 trading partners of Türkiye, analyzes the impact of political risk on Türkiye's foreign trade within the framework of the panel gravity model for the period 2003-2017. According to the results of the present analysis using the generalized method of moments, the real gross domestic product per capita of partner countries and the risk factor index are found to be important determinants of Türkiye's foreign trade. Moreover, it is concluded that only corruption, socioeconomic conditions, internal conflict, and law and order risks have an impact on international trade.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Political Risk
• International Trade
• Gravity Model
• GMM Estimator

Kaynakça

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