An Augmented Gravity Model with Political Risk: An Application of Türkiye

Yıl 2023, , 749 - 771, 30.12.2023

Begüm Çoban , Uğur Akkoç

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1327115

Öz

With globalization accelerating since the second half of the 20th century, there has been a great increase in the volume of international trade and a change in its composition has also been observed. However, it is known that political risk has increased in the same period all over the world. Political risk, an increasingly important type of risk, has strong effects on the direction and composition of international trade. Nevertheless, while the literature intensively examines the relationship between political risk and FDI, there are very few studies that test the relationship between international trade and political risk. This study, which includes 45 trading partners of Türkiye, analyzes the impact of political risk on Türkiye's foreign trade within the framework of the panel gravity model for the period 2003-2017. According to the results of the present analysis using the generalized method of moments, the real gross domestic product per capita of partner countries and the risk factor index are found to be important determinants of Türkiye's foreign trade. Moreover, it is concluded that only corruption, socioeconomic conditions, internal conflict, and law and order risks have an impact on international trade.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Political Risk, International Trade, Gravity Model, GMM Estimator

Politik Risk ile Genişletilmiş Çekim Modeli: Türkiye’nin İkili Ticareti için Bir Uygulama

Öz

20. yüzyılın ikinci yarısından itibaren hızlanan küreselleşme ile birlikte uluslararası ticaretin hacminde büyük bir artış gerçekleşmiş ve beraberinde kompozisyonunda da değişim gözlemlenmiştir. Bununla birlikte tüm dünyada aynı dönemde politik riskin yükseldiği bilinmektedir. Önemi giderek artan bir risk türü olan politik risk, uluslararası ticaretin yönü ve bileşimi üzerinde güçlü etkilere sahiptir. Buna rağmen literatür politik risk ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiyi yoğun biçimde incelerken uluslararası ticaret ile politik risk ilişkisini test eden çalışmalar ise son derece az sayıdadır. Türkiye’nin 45 ticaret ortağının yer aldığı bu çalışmada politik riskin Türkiye’nin dış ticareti üzerindeki etkisi 2003-2017 dönemi için panel çekim modeli çerçevesinde analiz edilmiştir. Genelleştirilmiş momentler yönteminin kullanıldığı mevcut analizin sonuçlarına göre partner ülkelerin kişi başına düşen reel gayri safi yurt içi hasılası ile risk faktör endeksinin Türkiye’nin dış ticaretinde önemli belirleyiciler oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca risk bileşenlerinden yalnızca yolsuzluk, sosyoekonomik koşullar, iç çatışma ve kanun ile düzen risklerinin uluslararası ticaret üzerinde etkili olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Politik Risk, Uluslararası Ticaret, Çekim Modeli, GMM Tahmincisi

Teşekkür

Bu çalışma Begüm Çoban'ın Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü'nde hazırlamış olduğu yüksek lisans tezinden türetilmiştir.

Kaynakça

• Akdağ, S. ve İskenderoğlu, Ö. (2018). Çeşitli finansal rasyoların karlılık üzerinde etkisi: OECD ülkelerindeki turizm şirketleri üzerine bir uygulama. İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 6(4), 18-25. https://doi.org/10.32479/iicd.150
• Alola, U.V., Cop, S. and Alola, A.A. (2019). The spillover effects of tourism receipts, political risk, real exchange rate, and trade indicators in Turkey. International Journal of Tourism Research, 21(6), 813-823. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2307
• Alon, I. and Herbert, T. (2009). A stranger in a strange land: Micro political risk and the multinational firm. Business Horizons, 52(2), 127-137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2008.09.004
• Amal, M., Tomio, B.T. and Raboch, H. (2010). Determinants of foreign direct investment in Latin America. GCG: Journal of Globalization, Competitiveness and Governability, 4(3), 116-133. doi:10.3232/GCG.2010.V4.N3.07
• Anderson, J.E. and Marcouiller, D. (2002). Insecurity and the pattern of trade: An empirical investigation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2), 342-352. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465302317411587
• Arellano, M. and Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
• Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D
• Ari, Y. (2021). Causality relationship between government stability and trade openness: The case of Turkey. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi (İktisad), 6(16), 422-431. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.840909
• Asiedu, E. (2006). Foreign direct investment in Africa: The role of natural resources, market size, government policy, institutions and political instability. The World Economy, 29(1), 63-77. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2006.00758.x
• Bevan, A.A. and Estrin S. (2004). The determinants of foreign direct investment into European transition economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 32(4), 775-787. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2004.08.006
• Bilgin, M.H., Gozgor, G. and Demir E. (2018). The determinants of Turkey’s exports to Islamic countries: The impact of political risks. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 27(5), 486-503. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2017.1396489
• Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
• Breusch, T.S. and Pagan, A.R. (1980). The LaGrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
• Brown, D.O. (2000). Political risk and other barriers to tourism promotion in Africa: Perceptions of us- based travel intermediaries. Journal of Vacation Marketing, 6(3), 197-210. https://doi.org/10.1177/1356766700006003
• Busse, M. and Hefeker, C. (2007). Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(2), 397-415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.02.003 Çilingir, S. (2004). Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarında politik risk ve Türkiye açısından değerlendirilmesi (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İzmir.
• Devadason, E.S., Govindaraju, V.G.R.C. and Mubarik, S. (2018). Defining potentials and barriers to trade in the Malaysia-Chile partnership. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 13(5), 758-779. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-11-2016-0306
• Dutt, P. and Traca, D. (2010). Corruption and bilateral trade flows: Extortion or evasion? The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4), 843-860. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00034
• Fitzpatrick, M. (1983). The definition and assessment of political risk in international business: A review of the literature. Academy of the Management Review, 8(2), 249-254. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.1983.4284734
• Fosu, A.K. (2003). Political instability and export performance in sub-Saharan Africa. The Journal of Development Studies, 39(4), 68-83. https://doi.org/10.1080/713869426
• Furtana, T.E. (2020). Türkiye’nin enerji bağımlılığındaki politik riskin dış ticarete etkileri (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Dış Ticaret Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
• Genç, M.C. (2011). Bölgeselleşme ve bölgeselleşmenin ticaret akımları üzerindeki etkisinin çekim modeli ile analizi (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Trabzon.
• Ghalia, T., Fidrmuc, J., Samargandi, N. and Sohag, K. (2019). Institutional quality, political risk and tourism. Tourism Management Perspectives, 32, 100576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2019.100576
• Google Earth. (2021). Distance data [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://earth.google.com/web/@0,0,0a,22251752.77375655d,35y,0h,0t,0r.
• Goswami, G.G. and Haider, S. (2014). Does political risk deter FDI inflow? An analytical approach using panel data and factor analysis. Journal of Economic Studies, 41(2), 233-252. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-03-2012-0041
• Goswami, G.G. and Panthamit, N. (2022a). Does political risk lower bilateral trade flow? A gravity panel framework for Thailand vis-a-vis her trading partners. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 17(2), 600-620. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-07-2020-0755
• Goswami, G.G., and Panthamit, N. (2022b). Does political risk matter for China's trade with ASEAN and MENA countries? A belt road initiative perspective. The Chinese Economy, 55(3), 188-207. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1958454
• Güven, Y. (2007). Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları, gelişme yolunda ülke ekonomileri üzerine etkileri: Türkiye için ampirik bulgular ve değerlendirilmesi (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Sakarya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Sakarya.
• Haner, F.T. (1979). Rating investment risk abroad. Business Horizons, 22(2), 18-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(79)90045-4
• Hashmi, M.A. and Güvenli, T. (1992). Importance of political risk assessment function in U.S. multinational corporations. Global Finance Journal, 3(2), 137-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/1044-0283(92)90009-A
• Head, K. (2003). Gravity for beginners. Retrieved from http://pioneer.netserv.chula.ac.th/~kkornkar/inter%20trade%20undergrad/term%20paper/gravity%202.pdf
• Herberg, M.E. (1992). Foreign direct investment: The upstream petroleum industry. In R. Solberg (Eds.), Country risk analysis: A handbook (pp. 232-252). Londra: Routledge.
• Hernández Gutiérrez, J.C. (2018). The political risk analysis (International Security Studies Group). Retrieved from http://www.seguridadinternacional.es/?q=en/print/147
• Howell, L.D. (2013). ICRG methodology (The PRS Group). Retrieved from https://www.unisg.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/HSG_ROOT/_Kernauftritt_HSG/Universitaet/Bibliothek/Suchen_und_Nutzen/Datenbanken/Datenbankseiten/A- Z/ICRG_Dataset/ICRG_Methodology.pdf
• IMF. (2020). Direction of trade statistics [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://data.imf.org/?sk=9D6028D4-F14A-464C-A2F2-59B2CD424B85 (13.12.2020).
• IMF. (2021). International financial statistics [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://data.imf.org/?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b.
• Jong, E. and Bogmans, C. (2011). Does corruption discourage international trade. European Journal of Political Economy, 27(2), 385-398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2010.11.005
• Kaya, E. (2015). Ülke riskinin yabancı portföy yatırımları üzerindeki etkisi. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 29(4), 611-623. Erişim Adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/atauniiibd/
• Kettis, M. (2004). The challenge of political risk: exploring the political risk management of Swedish multinational corporations (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm.
• Kızıltan, A. ve Şahin, H. (2020). Çekim modeli uygulanmasında karşılaşılan temel sorunlar ve ampirik çözüm stratejilerine yönelik bir literatür incelemesi. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 64, 175-190. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/dpusbe/
• Kobrin, S.J. (1979). Political risk: A review and reconsideration. Journal of International of Business Studies, 10(1), 67-80. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490631
• Linneman, H. (1966). An econometric study of international trade flow. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
• Long, A.G. (2008). Bilateral trade in the shadow of armed conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 52(1), 81-101. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00492.x
• Longo, R. and Sekkat, K. (2004). Economic obstacles to expanding intra-African trade. World Development, 32(8), 1309-1321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.02.006
• Martin, P., Mayer, T. and Thoenig, M. (2008). Civil wars and international trade. Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(2-3), 541-550. https://doi.org/10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.2-3.541
• Menipaz, E. and Menipaz, A. (2011). International business: Theory and practice. USA: Sage.
• Musila, J.W. and Sigue, S.P. (2010). Corruption and international trade: An empirical investigation of African countries. World Economy, 33(1), 129-146. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01208.x
• Muzindutsi, P.F. and Manaliyo, J.C. (2016). Effect of political risk shocks on tourism revenue in South Africa: Time series analysis. International Journal of Business and Management Studies, 8(2), 169-186. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijbms/
• Nitsch, V. and Schumacher, D. (2004). Terrorism and international trade: An empirical investigation. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), 423-433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2003.12.009
• OFX. (2021). Historical exchange rates [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/eur/.
• Oh, C.H. and Reuveny, R. (2010). Climatic natural disasters, political risk, and international trade. Global Environmental Change, 20(2), 243-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.11.005
• Özdemir, A. (2010). Uluslararası işletmelerde politik risk ve bir araştırma (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Marmara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
• Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240). Retrieved from https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf
• Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
• Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. and Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
• Poirier, R.A. (1997). Political risk analysis and tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 24(3), 675-686. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(97)00019-4
• PRS Group. (2018). The international country risk guide [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://www.prsgroup.com/explore-our-products/icrg/.
• Robock, S.H. (1971). Political risk: Identification and assessment. The Columbia Journal of World Business, 6(4), 6-20. Retrieved from https://www.scirp.org/
• Root, F.R. (1972). Analyzing political risks in international business. In P.D. Grub and D. Khambata (Eds.), The multinational enterprise in transition: Strategies for global competitiveness (pp. 354-365). Princeton: Darwin Press.
• Sezgin, Ş. ve Sezgin, S. (2018). Ortadoğu ülkelerinde ticaret hacmi ve terör ilişkisi. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 5(2), 205-223. https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.433404
• Simon, J.D. (1984). A theoretical perspective on political risk. Journal of International Business Studies, 15(3), 123-143. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490499
• Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.
• Tuman, J.P. and Emmert, C.F. (1999). Explaining Japanese foreign direct investment in Latin America, 1979-1992. Social Science Quarterly, 80(3), 539-555. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
• Uysal, M., Emir, M. ve Doğru, B. (2013). Ülkenin risklilik durumu ile ülkeye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 27(2), 79-92. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/atauniiibd
• World Bank. (2011). World investment and political risk (MIGA World Bank Group). Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/12429?show=full
• World Bank. (2023). World development indicators [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators#
• Yang, W., Xue, F., Shi, J., Shao, Y. and Wang, D. (2021). Factors affecting the trade dependence relationship of Asian countries with China: Implications for China’s belt and road initiative. Sustainability, 13(19), 10844. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131910844
• Yıldız, B. ve Şanlı, O. (2022). Politik, ekonomik ve finansal risklerin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 8(2), 219-248. https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.1124821
• Yılmaz, Y. (2017). Sermaye piyasasında işletmeler açısından politik riskin değerlendirilmesi. International Journal of Management and Administration, 1(2), 39-44. https://doi.org/10.29064/ijma.333747