The Retreat from BIST: Insights into Foreign Portfolio Investment Movements

Öz

The need for rapid growth and development in developing countries increases the demand for capital. As a result, foreign portfolio investments are of great importance, especially in emerging markets, as they help meet capital needs. However, their ability to move quickly also introduces high volatility to financial markets. This study examines changes in the share of foreign portfolio investors in Borsa Istanbul from 2004 to 2023, aiming to provide long-term insights to market participants. Initially, changes in the foreign portfolio investor ratio over time are graphically analyzed alongside the BIST 100 index and the average interest rate of deposits with a maturity of up to 3 months. These changes are evaluated in the context of both global and local developments. The study then investigates the causal relationship between the foreign portfolio investor ratio and the BIST 100 index using a cointegration test and a causality test based on the VECM model. The findings show a one-way causality from the BIST 100 index to the foreign portfolio investor ratio, indicating that foreign investors' market movements are largely influenced by the performance of the BIST 100, and local market dynamics significantly affect foreign capital inflows.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Portfolio Investment
• Borsa İstanbul
• Causality Analysis

BIST'ten Geri Çekilme: Yabancı Portföy Yatırım Hareketlerine Bakış

Öz

Hızlı büyüme ve kalkınma ihtiyacı, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sermaye ihtiyacını arttırmaktadır. Bu nedenle yabancı portföy yatırımları özellikle gelişmekte olan piyasalar için sermaye ihtiyacını karşılamaya katkı sağlamaları nedeniyle büyük önem taşırken, aynı zamanda hızlı hareket edebilme yetenekleri nedeniyle finansal piyasalar açısından yüksek volatilite oluşturabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada 2004-2023 yılları arasında Borsa İstanbul'da yer alan yabancı portföy yatırımcılarının paylarındaki değişimler incelenerek piyasa aktörlerine uzun dönem için öngörü sunma amacını taşımaktadır Öncelikle çalışmada, yabancı portföy yatırımcı oranının yıllar içindeki değişimleri BIST 100 endeksi ve vadesi 3 aya kadar olan mevduatların ortalama faizi ile birlikte grafik ile incelenmiştir. Yabancı portföy yatırımcı oranındaki değişimler küresel ve yerel gelişmeler eşliğinde değerlendirilmiştir. Daha sonra yabancı portföy yatırımcı oranı ile BIST 100 endeksi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi geniş bir zaman dilimini içerisine dahil edecek şekilde eşbütünleşme testi ve VECM modelini temel alan nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, BIST100 endeksinden yabancı portföy yatırımcı oranına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgu, yabancı yatırımcıların piyasadaki hareketlerini büyük ölçüde BIST 100'ün performansına göre şekillendirdiklerini ve yerel piyasa dinamiklerinin yabancı sermaye girişleri üzerinde belirleyici olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yabancı Portföy Yatırımı
• Borsa İstanbul
• Nedensellik Analizi

Kaynakça

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