Ülkelerin Krize Düşme Riski ve Para Politikasının Etkileri: Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin borç krizinin arkasındaki ana dinamikleri küresel para politikası açısından yeniden tartışmaya açmaktadır. 1975 ile 2022 yılları arasında 20 ülkeden elde edilen veriler kullanılarak bir panel logit modeli tahmin edilmiştir. Modele göre, ABD’deki faiz oranlarındaki bir artış, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde borç sıkıntısının olasılığını artıran önemli faktörlerden biridir. Bu bulgu ile, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin faiz oranları aracılığıyla dışsal faktörlere olan bağımlılığını ve dışsal dinamiklerin önemi vurgulanmaktadır. Ayrıca, kısa vadeli borçların toplam rezervlere oranındaki artış ve uluslararası rezervlerin ithalata oranı, borç sıkıntısı olasılığını güçlendirmektedir. Bir diğer önemli faktör ise ülkelerin yüksek enflasyon ve düşük büyüme nedeniyle borç sıkıntısına düşme olasılığıdır. Bu iki değişken, ülkelerin içsel dinamikleri olarak değerlendirilse de gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki üretim ve harcama performansı ile yabancı sermaye arasında güçlü bir doğrudan ilişkiyi gözler önüne sermektedir. Bu bağlamda, borç krizlerini yeniden değerlendirmek ve uygun politikaları uygulamak için sonuç bölümünde çeşitli öneriler sunulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dış borç
• Faiz oranı
• Para Politikası
• Borç Bunalımı

Sovereign Risk and Implication of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Panel Data

Öz

This paper reopens the discussion on the main dynamics behind the sovereign debt crisis focusing on global monetary policy. A panel logit model was applied using data from twenty countries between 1975 and 2022. According to the model, an increase in the U.S. interest rate is one of the significant factors fueling the likelihood of debt distress in developing countries. With this finding, we emphasize the dependency of developing countries on external factors through the interest rate and the importance of external dynamics. Additionally, an increase in short-term debt to total reserves and the ratio of international reserves to imports strengthens the likelihood of debt distress. Another important factor is the possibility that countries may fall into debt distress due to high inflation and low growth. Although these two variables are considered internal dynamics of countries, there is a strong direct relationship between the performance of production and expenditure in periphery countries and foreign capital. In this context, various recommendations are presented in the conclusion section for reconsidering debt crises and implementing appropriate policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• External debt
• Interest rate
• Monetary policy
• Debt distress

Kaynakça

1. Amin, S. (1991). Eşitsiz gelişme: Çevre kapitalizminin toplumsal biçimleri üzerine deneme. İstanbul: Arba Yayınları.
2. Beers, D.T. and Bhatia, A. (1999). Sovereign defaults: History. New York: Standard & Poor’s Credit Week.
3. Bukharin, N. (1987). Imperialism and world economy. London: Merlin Press.
4. Bulow, J. and Rogoff, K. (1989). A constant recontracting model of sovereign debt. Journal of Political Economy, 97(1), 155-178. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261596
5. Catão, L. and Sutton, B. (2002). Sovereign defaults: The role of volatility (IMF Working Paper, WP/02/149). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp02149.pdf
6. Cole, H.L. and Kehoe, T.J. (2000). Self-fulfilling debt crises. The Review of Economic Studies, 67(1), 91-116. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00123
7. Detragiache, E. and Spilimbergo, A. (2001). Crises and liquidity: Evidence and interpretation (IMF Working Paper WP/01/2). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Crises-and-Liquidity-Evidence-and-Interpretation-3963
8. Eaton, J. and Gersovitz, M. (1981). Debt with potential repudiation: Theoretical and empirical analysis. The Review of Economic Studies, 48(2), 289-309. https://doi.org/10.2307/2296886

9. Frank, A.G. (1984). Can the debt bomb be defused? World Policy Journal, 1(4), 723-743. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/40208964
10. Fuertes, A.M. and Kalotychou, E. (2006). Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51(2), 1420-1441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2006.08.023
11. Hajivassiliou, V.A. (1987). The external debt repayments problems of LDC's: An econometric model based on panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 36(1-2), 205-230. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(87)90050-9
12. Haque, N., Mark, N.C. and Mathieson, D.J. (1998). The relative importance of political and economic Variables in creditworthiness ratings (IMF Working Paper, WP/98/46). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp9846.pdf
13. Hilferding, R. (1981). Finance capital: A study of the latest phase of capitalist development. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.
14. Hobson, J.A. (1961). Imperialism: A study. London: George Allen & Unwin.
15. Kraay, A. and Nehru, V. (2006). When is external debt sustainable? The World Bank Economic Review, 20(3), 341-365. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhl006
16. Lardaro, L. (1993). Applied econometrics. New York: Harper Collins College Publishers.
17. Larraín, G., Reisen, H. and von Maltzan, J. (1997). Emerging market risk and sovereign credit ratings (OECD Development Centre Working Papers No. 124). https://doi.org/10.1787/004352173554
18. Manasse, P., Roubini, N. and Schimmelpfennig, A. (2003). Predicting sovereign debt crises (IMF Working Paper, WP/03/221). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp03221.pdf
19. Marx, K. (2011). Kapital (Cilt: I: Ekonomi politiğin eleştirisi) (Çev. M. Selik ve N. Satlıgan). İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
20. McFadden, D., Eckaus, R., Feder, G., Hajivassiliou, V. and O'Connell, S. (1985). Is there life after debt? An econometric analysis of the creditworthiness of developing countries. In G. Smith and J. Cuddington (Eds.), International debt and the developing countries (pp. 179-213). Washington: The World Bank.
21. Reinhart, C.M. (2002). Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings. The World Bank Economic Review, 16(2), 151-170. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/16.2.151
22. Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S. (2009). This time is different: Eight centuries of financial folly. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
23. Reinhart, C.M., Rogoff, K.S. and Savastano, M. (2003). Debt intolerance (NBER Working Paper No. 9908). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w9908
24. Rojas-Suarez, L. (2001). Rating banks in emerging markets. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
25. Sachs, J. and Cohen, D. (1982). LDC borrowing with default risk (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 925). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w0925/w0925.pdf
26. Standard & Poor’s. (2002). Sovereign defaults: Moving higher again in 2003? Retrieved from https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/
27. Suter, C. (1992). Debt cycles in the world economy: Foreign loans, financial crises, and debt settlements, 1820-1990. San Francisco: Westview Press.