Does GVC Participation Enhance Economic Performance? Evidence from the Turkish Manufacturing Sector

Öz

This study investigates the potential economic gains for the Turkish economy from increased participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs). Participation in GVCs enables more specialized production processes, enhancing economic efficiency and leading to increased exports, value added, and employment. This study uses the CS-ARDL method through a triple regression model to estimate the effects of forward and backward GVC participation on exports, the influence of increases in exports on the share of domestic value-added in exports, and the effects of export-driven domestic value-added on employment. The research employs OECD's Trade in Value Added (TiVA) data covering the period 1995-2020 and 17 manufacturing sub-sectors of Türkiye. Findings indicate that both forward and backward participation in GVCs positively influence export performance. Increases in exports decrease the share of domestic value-added while increasing the share of foreign value-added in exports, suggesting high foreign input dependency in Türkiye's exports. Although the share of domestic value-added in exports decreases, its overall size still increases. Rises in domestic value-added also increase employment. The research shows that policies aimed at Türkiye's deeper integration into GVCs can support exports and employment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Global Value Chains
• Production Fragmentation
• Trade in Value-Added
• CS-ARDL

Küresel Değer Zincirine Katılım Ekonomik Performansı Artırır mı? Türkiye İmalat Sanayinden Bulgular

Öz

Bu çalışma Türkiye ekonomisinin küresel değer zincirlerine (KDZ) katılımını artırması yoluyla elde edebileceği ekonomik kazanımları araştırmaktadır. KDZ’ne katılım, üretime ilişkin görevlerde ileri uzmanlaşma sağlamaktadır. Bu ekonomik verimliliği artırmakta ve böylece ihracat, katma değer ve istihdam artışına yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin KDZ’ne ileri ve geri yönlü katılımının ihracata, ihracat artışlarının yurt içi katma değerin ihracattaki payına ve ihracata bağlı yurt içi katma değerin istihdama etkileri üçlü bir regresyon modeli üzerinden CS-ARDL yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Araştırmada Türkiye ekonomisi için 1995-2020 dönemini ve 17 imalat sanayi alt sektörünü kapsayan OECD’nin Katma Değer Ticareti verileri kullanılmıştır. Bulgulara göre KDZ’ne hem ileri hem de geri yönlü katılım ihracat performansını olumlu etkilemektedir. İhracattaki artışlar ihracattaki yurtiçi katma değerin payını azaltmakta ve yabancı katma değerin payını artırmaktadır. Bu bulgu Türkiye’nin ihracatta yabancı girdi bağımlılığının yüksek olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Yurtiçi katma değerin ihracattaki payı azalsa da büyüklüğü yine de artmaktadır. Yurt içi katma değerdeki artışlar da istihdamı olumlu etkilemektedir. Araştırma Türkiye’de KDZ’ne katılımı artırmaya yönelik politikaların ihracatı ve istihdamı destekleyebileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Küresel Değer Zincirleri
• Üretimin Parçalanması
• Katma Değer Ticareti
• CS-ARDL

Kaynakça

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