Does Geopolitical Risk Rise Carbon Emissions? Evidence from a CS-ARDL Model for OECD Countries

Öz

Geopolitical risk constitutes an escalating global challenge, exerting profound implications for carbon emissions and the stability of ecological systems. This paper investigates the nexus between geopolitical risk and carbon emissions by employing advanced econometric techniques on a balanced panel of 25 OECD member states, incorporating extensive pre-estimation diagnostics and robustness checks to ensure methodological rigor. The empirical evidence demonstrates that elevated geopolitical risk exerts a statistically significant and positive effect on carbon emissions, thereby intensifying environmental degradation. Moreover, population expansion and higher per capita GDP are identified as key drivers of ecological deterioration, while trade openness and financial development emerge as mitigating factors. These results underscore the critical importance of fostering cross-border dialogue and enhancing institutional platforms established by supranational bodies to reduce geopolitical tensions. Coordinated international strategies that address both political stability and environmental sustainability are thus imperative for mitigating the intertwined challenges of global security and climate change.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Geopolitical Risk
• Carbon Emissions
• CS-ARDL

Jeopolitik Risk Karbon Emisyonunu Artırır mı? OECD Ülkeleri İçin CS-ARDL Modelinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Jeopolitik risk, karbon emisyonları ve ekolojik sistemlerin istikrarı üzerinde derin etkiler yaratarak giderek büyüyen küresel bir sorun haline gelmiştir. Enerji arz güvenliği, tedarik zincirleri, ticaret akışları ve yatırım kararları üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri, bu risklerin çevresel bozulmayı hızlandırma potansiyelini artırmaktadır. Bu çalışma, metodolojik titizlik sağlamak amacıyla kapsamlı ön testler ve sağlamlık kontrolleri içeren gelişmiş ekonometrik teknikler kullanarak, 25 OECD üyesinden oluşan dengeli bir panel veri seti üzerinde jeopolitik risk ile karbon emisyonları arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Ampirik bulgular, artan jeopolitik riskin karbon emisyonları üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir etki yaratarak çevresel bozulmayı şiddetlendirdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, nüfus artışı ve kişi başına düşen GSYH’nin ekolojik tahribatın başlıca belirleyicileri olduğu; buna karşılık ticari açıklık ve finansal gelişmenin karbon emisyonlarını azaltıcı faktörler olarak öne çıktığı tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular, jeopolitik gerilimlerin azaltılması için sınır ötesi diyalogların teşvik edilmesi ve uluslar üstü kurumlarca oluşturulacak platformların güçlendirilmesinin, küresel güvenlik ve çevresel sürdürülebilirlik açısından kritik önem taşıdığını vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Jeopolitik Risk
• Karbon Emisyonu
• CS-ARDL

Kaynakça

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