Kredi Genişlemesi ve Eşitsizlik: Ne Zaman Fayda Sağlar, Ne Zaman Zarar Verir?

Öz

Bu çalışma, kredi genişlemesinin gelir eşitsizliği üzerindeki heterojen etkilerini, finansal aracılığın etkinliğine odaklanarak incelemektedir. Teorik modelde üretkenlik parametresiyle temsil edilen ve ampirik analizde işlem maliyetleri ile ölçülen finansal aracı etkinliği, bankaların mevduatları krediye dönüştürme verimliliğini yansıtmaktadır. Bu çalışma, bankacılık faaliyetlerini ekonomik üretimin bir parçası olarak ele alan bir genel denge modeline dayanmakta ve kredi genişlemesinin eşitsizliği azaltıcı etkilerinin, bankaların mevduatları ne kadar verimli şekilde krediye dönüştürdüğüne bağlı olduğunu öne sürmektedir. Çalışmada, 2000–2019 dönemine ait ve 75’i yüksek ve üst-orta gelirli, 64’ü ise düşük ve alt-orta gelirli olmak üzere toplam 139 ülkeyi kapsayan panel veri seti kullanılmaktadır. Analizde, banka kredilerinin mevduata oranı ile ölçülen finansal gelişmenin etkisinin, düşük işlem maliyetiyle temsil edilen bankacılık sisteminin etkinliğine bağlı olup olmadığı test edilmektedir. Sabit etkiler ve iki aşamalı en küçük kareler tahminleri, yüksek ve üst-orta gelirli ülkelerde kredi genişlemesinin yalnızca işlem maliyetleri düşük olduğunda eşitsizliği azalttığını ortaya koymaktadır. Tüm örneklem ile düşük ve alt-orta gelirli ülkeler için elde edilen sonuçlar istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Ayrıca, düşük gelirli ülkelerde ilişkinin yönü tersine dönmekte, ancak bu sonuçlar istatistiksel olarak belirsizliğini korumaktadır. Bulgular, finansal gelişmenin tek başına dağılım sonuçlarını iyileştiremeyeceğini, bunun için etkin bir aracılık süreciyle desteklenmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Gelişme
• Gelir Eşitsizliği
• Bankacılık Etkinliği
• Kredi/Mevduat Oranı
• İşlem Maliyetleri
• Genel Denge Modelleri

Credit Expansion and Inequality: When Does it Help and When Does it Hurt?

Öz

This paper investigates the heterogeneous effects of credit expansion on income inequality by focusing on the efficiency of financial intermediation, captured by a productivity parameter in the theoretical model and proxied by overhead cost in the empirical analysis. Building on a general equilibrium model with an explicit banking sector, the study proposes that the inequality-reducing effects of credit expansion depend critically on how efficiently banks transform deposits into loans. Using a panel dataset covering 139 countries (75 high- and upper-middle-income and 64 low- and lower-middle-income) between 2000 and 2019, the empirical strategy explores whether the impact of financial development, measured as the ratio of bank credit to deposits, varies by banking system effectiveness, proxied by low overhead cost. Fixed-effects and two-stage least squares estimates for high- and upper-middle-income countries reveal that credit expansion reduces inequality only when overhead costs are low. The results for the full sample and low- and lower-middle-income countries are statistically insignificant, with the latter group showing a reversed and imprecise relationship. The findings support the hypothesis that financial development alone cannot improve distributional outcomes. Instead, it must be supported by efficient intermediation to ensure broader access to credit and reduce inequality.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Development
• Income Inequality
• Banking Efficiency
• Credit-to-Deposit Ratio
• Overhead Costs
• General Equilibrium Models

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