Türk Konut Finansmanı Piyasasına Devlet Müdahaleleri: Konut Destekleme Paketleri

Öz

Konut piyasalarına yönelik olarak sunulan devlet politikalarının çoğunun amacı, konut sahiplik oranını yükseltmek ve konuta erişilebilirliği iyileştirmektir. Ancak, beklenen faydaların aksine, bu politikaların kimi zaman belirsizliğe ve hatta irrasyonel ve stratejik davranışlara neden olabildiği görülmüştür. Türkiye'de 2020 ve 2022 yıllarında, devlet tarafından iki konut destekleme paketi çıkarılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, farklılıkların farkı ve etki analizi yöntemleri kullanılarak, bu paketlerin konut satış işlemlerinde konut kredisi kullanılması olasılığı üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Ülke genelinde gerçekleşen tüm tam hisse ve gerçek konut satış işlemlerini kapsayan özgün bir veri seti kullanılmıştır. 2020'de çıkarılan destekleme paketinin, konut kredisi kullanımında belirgin bir artışa sebep olduğu (ülke düzeyinde ortalama yüzde 71,5’lik bir göreli artış), 2022 yılındaki paketin ise 2020 paketine kıyasla çok daha düşük bir artışla sonuçlandığı gösterilmiştir. Bu makalede, konut kredisi faiz oranlarına yapılan devlet müdahalelerinin, konut kredisi piyasasının likiditesi üzerinde artışa neden olabileceği sonucuna ulaşılırken, iki önemli vurguda bulunulmuştur. Birincisi, benzer politikalar geliştirilirken, öncelikli amaç ve hedef gruplar açık bir şekilde tanımlanmalıdır. İkincisi, politikaların etkin bir şekilde işleyebilmesi için yerel ve sektöre özgü koşullar, politika içeriğine muhakkak yansıtılmalıdır. Aksi halde, başlangıçta beklenen etkilere ulaşılamaması olasılığı ile karşılaşılabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Devlet Müdahalesi
• Konut Finansman Piyasaları
• Konut Politikaları
• Konut Ekonomisi
• Konut Finansmanı

Government Interventions in the Turkish Mortgage Market: Housing Support Schemes

Öz

Many government policies in housing markets aim to encourage homeownership and raise affordability. However, conflicting outcomes of government interventions suggest that such policies may lead to uncertainty, as well as irrational and strategic behaviours, contrary to initial expectations. The Turkish government initiated two housing support schemes in 2020 and 2022. To explore the impact of housing support schemes on the probability of mortgage-financing in house sales transactions, this study applies difference in differences and an event-study method on a novel transaction-level dataset covering all full share apartment unit sales across the country. The 2020 scheme produced a large shift in the extensive margin of credit use (71.5 percent relative increases on average across the country) while the 2022 program generated a substantially smaller increase than that of the 2020 scheme. This study argues that government interventions in mortgage interest rates have a boosting effect on the mortgage market and market liquidity. However, the primary objective and the target population of such policies need to be clearly defined, and they must be tailored to reflect local and sector-specific conditions in order to be effective. Otherwise, the results might be inconsistent with the initial anticipated impacts.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Government Intervention
• Mortgage Markets
• Housing Policies
• Housing Economics
• Housing Finance

Kaynakça

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