Sermaye Yapısı ve İhracat Yoğunluğu: Türkiye İmalat Sanayiinden Statik ve Dinamik Panel Kanıtları

Öz

Bu çalışma, İstanbul Sanayi Odası’nın Türkiye’nin 500 Büyük Sanayi Kuruluşu (İSO 500) araştırmasının 2009-2025 dönemine ait listelerinden inşa edilen firma-yıl paneliyle sermaye yapısı ile ihracat yoğunluğu arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Unvan normalizasyonu ve marka-korumalı bulanık eşleştirmeyle kurulan regresyon örneklemi 750 firmaya ait 3.689 gözlemden oluşmakta olup sermaye yapısı toplam kaldıraç oranıyla ölçülmüştür. Statik iki yönlü sabit etkiler tahminlerinde kaldıraç katsayısı sıfırdan ayırt edilememektedir (-0,001; p=0,97). Buna karşılık ihracat yoğunluğundaki kalıcılığı ve kaldıracın içselliğini dikkate alan iki aşamalı Blundell-Bond sistem GMM tahmininde kaldıraç katsayısı 0,128 (p=0,028) çıkmaktadır. Ancak bu pozitif etki sağlam değildir: sıfır atanan ihracat gözlemleri dışlandığında anlamlılığını yitirmekte, kesirli yanıt tahminleri kalıcılığı doğrularken kaldıraç etkisini vermemekte ve Hansen testi araç setine yalnızca sınırda destek sunmaktadır (p=0,096). Yabancı sermaye payı havuzlanmış tahminlerde pozitifken firma sabit etkileri altında anlamsızlaşmaktadır. Dinamik bulgular, borçlanma kapasitesinin Türkiye’nin en büyük sanayi firmalarında ihracat yoğunluğunu desteklediği yorumuyla tutarlı olmakla birlikte bunu kanıtlamamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sermaye Yapısı
• Kaldıraç
• İhracat Yoğunluğu
• Dinamik Panel
• Sistem GMM
• ISO500

Capital Structure and Export Intensity: Static and Dynamic Panel Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing

Öz

This study analyses the relationship between capital structure and export intensity using a firm-year panel drawn from the Istanbul Chamber of Industry’s Top 500 Industrial Enterprises (ISO 500) surveys for 2009-2025. After name normalisation and brand-guarded fuzzy matching, the regression sample contains 3,689 observations on 750 firms, with capital structure measured by the total leverage ratio. Static two-way fixed-effects estimates yield a leverage coefficient indistinguishable from zero (-0.001; p=0.97). By contrast, a two-step Blundell-Bond system GMM estimator accounting for the persistence of export intensity and the endogeneity of leverage estimates the leverage coefficient at 0.128 (p=0.028). This positive coefficient is not robust: it becomes insignificant when zero-imputed export observations are excluded, and fractional response estimates reproduce the persistence but not the leverage effect. Foreign capital share is positive in pooled estimates but insignificant under firm fixed effects. The dynamic results are consistent with debt capacity supporting export intensity among Türkiye’s largest industrial firms, but do not establish such an effect.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Capital Structure
• Leverage
• Export Intensity
• Dynamic Panel
• System GMM
• ISO500

Kaynakça

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