ABD İşgücü Piyasasında Ücretler ve Göç ilişkisi: Neoklasik Göç Teorisi

Öz

Göçmenler genellikle güçlü gelir ve emek talebine sahip alanlara gittikçe, ücret ve istihdamdaki değişikliklerin hem nedeni hem de sonucu olabilmektedirler. Geçmişten bu yana en çok göç alan bölgelerin başında gelen ABD’de ise göçmen sayısı hızla artmaktadır. Dolayısıyla bu büyük göç akışının işgücü piyasası üzerindeki fırsatlarını ve tehditlerini çeşitli açılardan incelemek önemlidir. Bu anlamda bu çalışmada, ABD’de uluslararası göçün işgücü piyasası üzerindeki ekonomik etkilerini ortaya koymak amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada, Toda-Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Bu prosedür, MWALD testinin problemlerini ortadan kaldırmakta ve standart Granger nedensellik testiyle ilgili problemleri önlemektedir. Bu bakımdan güçlü bir test prosedürü içeren Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçları, seriler arasında iki yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Diğer bir deyişle, ücretler ve göç arasında iki yönlü nedensel bir ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Uluslararası göçün işgücü piyasaları üzerindeki etkisi incelendiğinde, göçlerin hedef ülkede ücret düzeyinde bir değişmeye neden olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Yapılan bu çalışma göç teorisini ilgilendiren diğer çalışmalarla doğrudan ilgilidir.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Neoklasik Göç Modeli,Ücret Farklılıkları,ABD,Uluslararası Göç

Wages and Migration Relation in the US Labor Market: Neoclassical Migration Theory

Öz

As migrants generally go to areas with strong income and labor demand, they can be both the cause and the result of changes in wages and employment. The number of immigrants has been increased rapidly in the USA, which can be considered as the one of the most immigrated regions ever. Therefore, it is important to examine the opportunities and threats of this large migration flow on the labor market from various perspectives. To this end, this study examines the economic impacts of international migration on the labor market in the US. The study utilizes the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) causality approach. This procedure eliminates the problems caused by MWALD test and avoids the problems associated with the standard Granger causality. According to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test which includes a powerful test procedure, there exists bi-directional causality between series under investigation. In other words, wages and migration causes each other. When the impact of international migration on labor markets is examined, it is understood that migrations cause a change in the wage level in the target country. This study is directly related to other studies in line with the migration theory.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Neoclassical Migration Model,Wage Differences,USA,International Migration

Kaynakça

1. Aktaş, M. (2015). Ücret odaklı uluslararası işgücü hareketliliğinin işgücü piyasalarına etkileri. TESAM Akademi, 2(2), 197-219. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tesamakademi
2. Alecke, B., Mitze, T., & Untiedt, G. (2010). Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: Results from a Panel VAR. Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, 30(2), 159-189. doi: 10.1007/s10037-010-0045-3
3. Barcellos, S. H. (2010). The dynamics of immigration and wages (Rand Labor and Population Working Paper No. WR-755). Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR755.html
4. Bauer, T. K., & Zimmermann, K. F. (1999). Assessment of possible migration pressure and its labour market impact following EU enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe (IZA Research Report No. 3). Retrieved from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/74a9/44e045d4cf2da18e7108a7102 14fd98aad9f.pdf
5. Blau, F. D., & Mackie, C. (2017). The Economic and fiscal consequences of immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
6. Borjas, G. J. (2008). Labor outflows and labor inflows in Puerto Rico. Journal of Human Capital, 2(1), 32-68. https://doi.org/10.1086/527521
7. Brücker, H., & Jahn, E. J. (2011). Migration and wage-setting: Reassessing the labor market effects of migration. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 113(2), 286-317. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9442.20 10.01634.x
8. Çağlayan, E. ve Saçaklı, İ. (2006). Satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerliliğinin sıfır frekansta spektrum tahmincisine dayanan birim kök testleri ile incelenmesi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 20(1), 121-137. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/atauniiibd

9. Damette, O., & Fromentin, V. (2013). Migration and labour markets in OECD countries: A panel cointegration approach. Applied Economics, 45(16), 2295-2304. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368 46.2012.661400
10. Docquier, F., Özden, Ç., & Peri, G. (2011). The wage effects of immigration and emigration (The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS5556). Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/675801468331816158/pdf/WPS5556.pdf
11. Dustmann, C. (2003). Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration. European Economic Review, 47(2), 353-369. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(01)00184-2
12. Dustmann, C., Glitz, A., & Frattini, T. (2008). The labour market impact of immigration. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24(3), 477-494. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grn024
13. European University Institute. (2018). Neoclassical economics and the new economics of migration. Retrieved from https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/migration-theories/0/steps/35078
14. Gazel, S. (2017). BİST sinai endeksi ile çeşitli metaller arasindaki ilişki: Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi. Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(52), 287-299. Erişim adresi: http://www.asosjournal.com
15. Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424-438. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org
16. Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7
17. Jennissen, R. (2007). Causality chains in the international migration systems approach. Population Research and Policy Review, 26(4), 411-436. doi: 10.1007/s11113-007-9039-4
18. Karagöl, E. T., Özgür, Ö. ve Görüş, M. Ş. (2017, Kasım). Göçün işgücü piyasasına etkisi: İskandinav ülkeleri örneği [Özet]. H. Bağcı, F. Beşel ve F. Yardımcıoğlu (Ed.), ICPESS 2017 Bildiri Özetleri Kitabı içinde (s.192). Uluslararası Politik, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Kongresi’nde sunulan bildiri, Ankara, 9-11 Kasım 2017. Sakarya: Beşköprü Yayınları.
19. Koçbıyık, H. (2016). Göç olgusunun işgücü piyasasına ve yerli işçiler üzerindeki etkilerine dair literatür çalışması. Erişim adresi: https://www.academia.edu/30812147/G%C3%B6%C3%A7_Olgusunun _%C4%B0%C5%9Fg%C3%BCc%C3%BC_Piyasas%C4%B1na_ve_Yerli_%C4%B0%C5%9F%C3%A7iler_%C3%9Czerindeki_Etkilerine_Dair_%C4%B0ncelemeler
20. Kurekova, L. (2011, April). Theories of migration: Conceptual review and empirical testing in the context of the EU East-West flows. Paper presented at the Interdisciplinary Conference on Migration, Economic Change, Social Challenge. University College London, England. Retrieved from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f6cd/407bb33dcee11d834a6dacb2d3ccdb99f972.pdf
21. Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
22. Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x
23. Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1993). Theories of international migration: A review and appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
24. Mitze, T., & Reinkowski, J. (2011). Testing the neoclassical migration model: Overall and age-group specific results for German regions. Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung, 43(4), 277-297. doi: 10.1007/s12651-010-0046-2
25. Ottaviano, G. I. P., & Peri, G. (2006). Rethinking the effects of immigration on wages (NBER Working Paper No. 12497). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
26. Ottaviano, G. I., & Peri, G. (2012). Rethinking the effect of immigration on wages. Journal of the European Economic Association, 10(1), 152-197. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01052.x
27. Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). The laws of migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167-235. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org
28. Reed, H., & Latorre, M. (2009). The economic impacts of migration on the UK labour market (IPPR Economics of Migration Working Paper No. 3). Retrieved from https://www.ippr.org/publications/the-economic-impacts-of-migration-on-the-uk-labour-market
29. Ruhs, M., & Vargas-Silva, C. (2018). The labour market effects of immigration (Briefing, The Migration Observatory). Retrieved from Center on Migration, Policy and Society, University of Oxford website: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/181214-Briefing-Labour-Market-Effects-Immigration.pdf
30. Ruist, J., & Bigsten, A. (2013). Wage effects of labour migration with international capital mobility. The World Economy, 36(1), 31-47. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12006
31. Solimano, A., & Watts, N. (2005). International migration, capital flows and the global economy: A long Run View. Santiago: United Nations Publications.
32. Taylor, J. E. (2019). Migration Models. Retrieved from https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/migration-models
33. Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
34. Ünlü, U., & Topcu, M. (2012). Do oil prices directly affect stock markets: Evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange. İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 27(319), 75-88. doi: 10.3848/iif.2012.319.3438
35. Wickramasinghe, A. A. I. N., & Wimalaratana, W. (2016). International migration and migration theories. Social Affairs, 1(5), 13-32. Retrieved from https://www.socialaffairsjournal.com
36. Yavuz, N. Ç. (2004). Durağanlığın belirlenmesinde KPSS ve ADF testleri: İMKB Ulusal-100 Endeksi ile bir uygulama. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 54(1), 239-247. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/istjecon