Türkiye’de Demografik Faktörlerin Büyüme Yavaşlaması Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Ülkelerin demografik yapısı büyüme ve kalkınma sürecinde önemli bir role sahiptir. Türkiye, demografik geçiş sürecini henüz tamamlamamış ve demografik fırsat penceresinin de henüz kapanmadığı ülkelerden biridir. Demografik fırsat penceresinden avantaj sağlamak ise uygulanacak politikalara bağlıdır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1954-2019 döneminde, demografik faktörler ile büyüme yavaşlaması arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Bu çerçevede Eichengreen, Park ve Shin (2011) tarafından geliştirilen büyüme yavaşlaması metodolojisi çerçevesinde probit regresyon yöntemi kullanılarak demografik faktörlerin büyüme yavaşlaması olasılığı üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de demografik yapı ile büyüme yavaşlaması olasılığı arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Probit regresyon sonuçlarına göre doğumda beklenen yaşam süresi, nüfus yoğunluğu ve kentsel nüfus ile büyüme yavaşlaması olasılığı arasında negatif yönlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı; kişi başı gelir, bağımlılık oranı, genç bağımlılık oranı ve doğurganlık oranı ile büyüme yavaşlaması olasılığı arasında pozitif yönlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Analizde kullanılan değişkenlerden, yaşlı bağımlılık oranı ile büyüme yavaşlaması olasılığı arasında anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Demografi
• Probit Model
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Büyüme Yavaşlaması

The Impact of Demographic Factors on Growth Slowdown in Turkey

Öz

The demographic structure of countries has an important role in the growth and development process. Turkey is one of the countries which has not yet completed the demographic transition process, and the demographic window of opportunity still exists in Turkey. Taking advantage of the demographic window of opportunity depends on policies to be implemented. In this paper, we analyze the link between demographic factors and the growth slowdown in Turkey over the period 1954-2019. In this context, using the probit regression method, we analyze the impact of demographic factors on the probability of growth slowdown within the framework of the growth slowdown methodology developed by Eichengreen, Park and Shin (2011). The results show that there is a statistically significant relationship between demographic structure and the likelihood of growth slowdown in Turkey. According to probit regression results, there is a statistically and negative relationship between life expectancy at birth, urban population, population density, and the likelihood of growth slowdown. In contrast, GDP per capita, dependency ratio, young dependency ratio and fertility rate are positively and significantly related to the probability of growth slowdown. Furthermore, there is no significant relationship between the old dependency ratio and the likelihood of growth slowdown. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic growth
• Growth slowdown
• Demographics
• Probit model

Kaynakça

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