The dynamic links between monetary variables and output is one of the most studied issues in macroeconomics. One puzzle from the significant portion of the literature is that the results of full estimation methods such as Granger Causality Test and Impulse-Response Function analysis appear to be sensitive with respect to the sample period that one considers. As a way of overcoming this difﬁculty, this study investigates the dynamic links between monetary variables and output for Turkey using the method Historical Decomposition which is based on a vector autoregressive model. In the study, the relationship between M1, M2 and discount rate and output for the period of 1987-2019 was examined with the VAR model, and the lags of the inflation variable were added to this created VAR model as an external variable. By taking advantage of the historical decomposition method, more accurate results were obtained by applying time-varying shocks between the variables. The main conclusion obtained from this study is that the monetary variables used in the study while explains the income negatively in 1994 and 2001 Crises it affects positively although it was not strong in other periods.
Yayımlanma Tarihi : 31 Ağustos 2020
|APA||Aygün, G . (2020). Parasal Değişkenler ve Çıktı İlişkisinin Türkiye İçin Tarihsel Ayrıştırma Yöntemi İle Analizi . Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi , 5 (2) , 228-241 . DOI: 10.30784/epfad.737602|