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The Impact of Covid-19 on France’s Economy with an Overview on The European Economy

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: Özel Sayı, 115 - 136, 26.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.810739

Öz

The coronavirus infection (COVID-19) occurred towards the end of 2019 and started spreading around the world in a short time with an immense impact on public health. However, it also affected global economy. This paper explores the economic impact of Covid-19 in France which is one of the countries most affected in Europe. We will first analyse the theoretical framework based on ‘demand and supply side shock’. We will then expose the economic impacts of Covid-19 on the French market, by evaluating the shocks on the demand and supply sides. The methodology of the study would consist of French governmental, Central Banks’ and international economic and financial data, including economic reports statistics, and forecasts of prominent international economic organizations as well as other relevant reports and data from the economic and financial literature. This paper is incorporated by extensive primary and secondary resources. Additionally, this article analyses the effects of Covid-19 on European countries. Within this prospect, European Union support measures and financial assistance is also covered as an extension to our research. Our findings cover economic projections for both France and the European Union and shows that economy cannot reach its pre-pandemic levels before 2022.

Destekleyen Kurum

İCOAEF Kongresi

Kaynakça

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  • Balleer, A. Link, S., Menkhoff, M. and Zorn, P. (2020). Demand or supply? Price adjustment during the Covid-19 pandemic. (CEPR Working Paper No. 8394). Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_8394.html
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Covid-19’un Fransa Ekonomisine Etkisi ve Avrupa Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: Özel Sayı, 115 - 136, 26.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.810739

Öz

Koronavirüs enfeksiyonu (COVID-19) 2019'un sonlarına doğru ortaya çıkıp kısa sürede dünya geneline yayılmaya başlamış ve halk sağlığı üzerinde ciddi etkileri olmuştur. Bununla birlikte, Covid-19 küresel ekonomiyi de etkilemiştir. Bu makale, Avrupa'da en çok etkilenen ülkelerden biri olan Fransa'daki Covid-19'un ekonomik etkilerini araştırmaktadır. Öncelikle 'talep ve arza dayalı şokların' teorik çerçevesi ele alınacaktır. Ardından talep ve arza dayalı şoklar değerlendirilerek Covid-19'un Fransa pazarı üzerindeki ekonomik etkileri ortaya çıkarılacaktır. Çalışmanın metodolojisi, önde gelen uluslararası iktisadi kuruluşların ekonomik raporları, istatistikleri ve öngörüleri dahil olmak üzere Fransız hükümeti, Merkez Bankaları ve uluslararası ekonomik ve finansal literatürden elde edilen verilerden oluşmaktadır. Bu makale birincil ve ikincil kaynakları kapsamlı bir şekilde içermektedir. Ayrıca, çalışmamız Covid-19'un Avrupa ülkeleri üzerindeki etkileri de incelemektedir. Bu çerçevede, Avrupa Birliği’nin üye devletlere açıklamış olduğu destek önlemleri ve mali yardım programları da araştırmamızın bir uzantısı olarak ele alınmıştır. Bulgularımız hem Fransa hem de Avrupa Birliği için ekonomik öngörüler içermekte olup, 2022 yılından önce ekonominin pandemi öncesindeki seviyelere ulaşamayacağını göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Abigail, N. (2020, 23 February). France has seen a 30% to 40% fall in tourists following the Coronavirus outbreak: finance minister. CNBC. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/23/coronavirus-impact-france-sees-tourism-numbers-fall-by-30percent-to-40percent.html
  • Andrle, M., Bruha, J. and Solmaz, S. (2013). Inflation and output co-movement in the Euro Area: Love at second sight?. (IMF Working Paper No. 13-192). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13192.pdf
  • Anota, M. (2020). Covid-19: l'Epidémie a-t-elle entraîné un choc d'offre ou de demande ? [Blog article]. Retrieved from https://blogs.alternatives-economiques.fr/anota/2020/06/24/covid-19-l-epidemie-a-t-elle-entraine-un-choc-d-offre-ou-de-demande
  • Associated Press. (2020). BMW to drop 6,000 jobs. Retrieved from https://www.manufacturing.net/automotive/news/21137833/bmw-to-drop-6000-jobs
  • Baldwin, R. (2020). The supply side matters: guns versus butter. Retrieved from https://voxeu.org/article/supply-side-matters-guns-versus-butter-covid-style?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • Baldwin, R. and Tomiura, E. (2020). Thinking ahead about the trade impact of COVID-19, economics in the time of COVID-19. In R. Baldwin and B. W. di Mauro (Eds.), Center for Economic Policy Research (pp.59-73). UK, CEPR Press.
  • Balleer, A. Link, S., Menkhoff, M. and Zorn, P. (2020). Demand or supply? Price adjustment during the Covid-19 pandemic. (CEPR Working Paper No. 8394). Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_8394.html
  • Baqaee, D. and Farhi, E. (2020). Supply and demand in disaggregated Keynesian economies with an application to the Covid-19 crisis. (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 27152). Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27152.html
  • Barone, A. (2020). Demand shock. Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/demandshock.asp#:~:text=A%20positive%20demand%20shock%20is,prices%20of%20goods%20and%20services
  • Benguria, F. M. and Taylor, A. (2019). After the panic: Are financial crises demand or supply shocks? evidence from international trade. (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 25790). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25790/w25790.pdf
  • Béziat, E. (2020, 29 May). Il S’Agit de la Survie de Renault. Le Monde. Retrieved from https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2020/05/29/jean-dominique-senard-il-s-agit-de-la-survie-de-renault_6041152_3234.html
  • Brinca, P., Duarte, J. B. and Faria-e-Castro, M. (2020). Measuring sectoral supply and demand shocks during COVID-19. (FRB St. Louis Working Paper No. 011). http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/wp.2020.011
  • Casalis, A. and Krustev, G. (2020). Consumption of durable goods in the Euro Area. European Central Bank, Economic Bulletin, (05). Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2020/html/ecb.ebart202005_01~7749d3224d.en.html#toc1.
  • CEIC Data. (2020). France trade balance. Retrieved from https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/france/trade-balance#:
  • Chappelow, J. (2019). Economic shock. Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/economic-shock.asp
  • Charles, S., Dallery, T. and Marie, J. (2020, 30 March). Covid-19: Choc d'offre ou choc de demande? raté! les deux!. La Tribune. Retrieved from https://www.latribune.fr/opinions/tribunes/covid-19-choc-d-offre-ou-choc-de-demande-rate-les-deux-843729.html
  • Çongar, K. (2020). Dünya ekonomisi yüzde 3 küçüldü, zenginlerin serveti 74 trilyon dolara yükseldi [Global economy shrank by 3%, fortunes of the rich people reached 74 trillion dollars]. Euronews. Retrieved from https://tr.euronews.com/2020/07/12/dunya-ekonomisi-yuzde-3-kuculdu-zenginlerin-serveti-74-trilyon-dolara-yukseldi
  • Coronavirus Leads to Food Industry Crisis in Europe. (2020). Across Europe, much of the food and agriculture industry has been badly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52715288
  • Del Rio-Chanona, R. M., Mealy, P., Pichler, A., Lafond, F. and Farmer, D. (2020). Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective. Econ.GN., 1-38 doi:10.1093/oxrep/graa033
  • Deubel, P. (2020). Coronavirus et chocs d’offre et de demande. Retrieved from https://www.melchior.fr/synthese/coronavirus-et-chocs-d-offre-et-de-demande
  • Dharshini, D. (2020, 19 June). UK debt now larger than size of whole economy. BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53104734
  • Dutheil, G. (2020, 3 July). Air France annonce 7 580 suppressions de postes. Le Monde. Retrieved from https://www.lemonde.fr
  • Eurofound. (2020). COVID-19. Retrieved from: https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/topic/covid-19
  • European Commission. (2020a). European economic forecast (Publication 132). Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/european-economic-forecast-summer-2020_en
  • European Commission. (2020b). European economic forecast (Publication 125). Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/european-economic-forecast-spring-2020_en
  • Eurostat. (2020a). Impact of Covid-19 crisis on industrial production. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Impact_of_Covid-19_crisis_on_industrial_production
  • Eurostat. (2020b). Euro Area international trade in goods surplus. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10545447/6-14082020-BP-EN.pdf/b2a37ef5-8ecc-e661-36eb-5ce6541d94fc
  • Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) on the world economy. European Corporate Governance Institute, 1-33. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557504
  • Focus Economics. (2020). France economic outlook. Retrieved from https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/france
  • Fornaro, L. and Wolf, M. (2020). Covid-19 coronavirus and macroeconomic policy (CEPR Discussion Paper 14529). Retrieved from https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14529
  • Garnier, J. and Prudhomme, C. (2020, 21 May). Dans la vente de meubles et de vêtements, le Coronavirus, c’est le coup de grâce. Le Monde. Retrieved from https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2020/05/21/commerce-le-covid-19-c-est-le-coup-de-grace_6040360_3234.html
  • Global Macro Monitor. (2020). The global supply & demand shock of the Coronavirus. Retrieved from https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/01/31/the-global-supply-demand-shock-of-the-coronavirus/
  • Guerrieri, V., Lorenzoni, G., Straub, L. and Werning, I. (2020). Macroeconomic implications of Covid-19: can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages?. (National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 26918). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26918/w26918.pdf
  • Heyer, E. and Timbeau, X. (2020). Évaluation de l'impact economique de la pandémie de Covid-19 et des mesures de confinement sur l'economie mondiale en avril 2020. OFCE Policy Brief, 1-24. Retrieved from https://econpapers.repec.org/
  • Hobbs, J. E. (2020). Food supply chains during the COVID‐19 pandemic. [Special issue]. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economic, 68(2), 171-176. https://doi.org/10.1111/cjag.12237
  • Hotten, R. (2020). Renault cuts 15,000 jobs in major restructuring. BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52845849#:~:text=Renault%20is%20cutting%2015%2C000%20jobs,on%20electric%20cars%20and%20vans.
  • Huynh, T. L. and Salez, N. (2020). Impact du Covid-19 sur l’économie Française à partir des données alternatives en temps réel [Blog article]. Retrieved from http://variances.eu/?p=4900
  • Institut de l’Epargne Immobilière et Foncière. (2020). l’explosion attendue des faillites en France. Retrieved form https://www.ieif.fr/revue_de_presse/lexplosion-attendue-des-faillites-en-france
  • International Monetary Fund. (2020). GDP, current prices. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
  • Islam, M. M. and Farha, F. (2020). Covid-19 and Sustainable Tourism: Macroeconomic effect and policy comparison among Europe, the USA and China. Asian Business Review, 10(1), 53-60. Retrieved from https://abc.us.org/ojs/index.php/abr/
  • Jones, P. and Comfort, D. (2020). The Covid-19 crisis: tourism and sustainable development. Athens Journal of Tourism, 7(2), 75-86. Retrieved from http://eprints.glos.ac.uk/8408/
  • Koutsokosta, E. and Gauret, F. (2020). The EU's 100 billion Euro scheme to tackle unemployment caused by COVID-19. Euronews. Retrieved from: https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/the-eu-s-100-billion-euro-scheme-to-tackle-unemployment-caused-by-covid-19
  • L’Opinion. (2020). Coronavirus: la consommation des ménages s’est effondrée en avril. Retrieved from https://www.lopinion.fr/edition/economie/consommation-menages-en-chute-libre-d-tiers-en-avril-217972
  • Le Monde. (2020). En pleine crise du Covid-19 le déficit commercial se creuse fortement au deuxième trimestre. Retrieved from https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2020/08/07/en-pleine-crise-du-covid-19-le-deficit-commercial-se-creuse-fortement-au-deuxieme-trimestre_6048375_3234.html
  • Le Parisien. (2020). Covid-19: L’emploi salarié a reculé d’un demi-million au 1er trimestre en France. Retrieved from https://www.leparisien.fr/archives/covid-19-l-emploi-salarie-a-recule-d-un-demi-million-au-1er-trimestre-en-france-11-06-2020-8333538.php
  • Leclerc. (2020). Consommation: Le COVID-19 change la donne !. Retrieved from https://nouvellesconso.leclerc/consommation-le-covid-19-change-la-donne/
  • Lisack, N., Bergeaud, A., Berthou, A. Collès, B. Gaulier, G. and Ouvrard, J-F. (2020). Covid-19 et chaînes de valeur, Banque de France, Retrieved from https://publications.banque-france.fr/covid-19-et-chaines-de-valeur
  • Malliet, P., Reynès, F., Landa, G., Hamdi‑Cherif, M. and Saussay, A. (2020). Assessing short-term and long-term economic and environmental effects of the COVID-19 crisis in France. Environmental and Resource Economics, (76), 867–883. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00488-z
  • Malou Academy. (2020a). Le Coronavirus : Quels impacts sur l’hôtellerie et la restauration en France?. Retrieved from https://malou.io/coronavirus-impacts-lhotellerie-restauration-france/
  • Malou Academy. (2020b). L’impact du Covid-19 sur la restauration: Quelles conséquences et répercussions?. Retrieved from https://malou.io/impact-covid-19-restauration-consequences-repercussions/
  • Michalski, T. K. and Ors, E. (2020). La propagation de chocs liés au Coronavirus a travers les réseaux de production. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.fr/business/la-propagation-de-chocs-lies-au-coronavirus-a-travers-les-reseaux-de-production/
  • Ministère de l’Economie, des Finances et de la Relance. (2020). Statistiques officielles de tourisme. Retrieved from https://www.economie.gouv.fr/cedef/statistiques-officielles-tourisme
  • Ministère de l’Europe et des Affaires Etrangères. (2020). Covid-19: Les mesures economiques et l’action du ministère en soutien aux secteurs de l’export et du tourisme. Retrieved from https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/le-ministere-et-son-reseau/actualites-du-ministere/informations-coronavirus-covid-19/covid-19-les-mesures-economiques-et-l-action-du-ministere-en-soutien-aux/
  • National Institute of Statistics and Economic Researches. (2020). Foreign trade. Retrieved from https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2381428
  • Natixis. (2020). Covid-19: What impact on European real estate valuations?, Retrieved from https://www.natixis.com/natixis/jcms/lpaz5_83078/en/covid-19-what-impact-on-european-real-estate-valuations
  • Normand, G. (2020). Covid-19: Des pertes abyssales pour l'economie Française. La Tribune. Retrieved from https://www.latribune.fr/economie/france/covid-19-des-pertes-abyssales-pour-l-economie-francaise-845592.html#:~:text=Selon%20une%20note%20de%20l,(PIB)%20annuel%20en%20moins.
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2020a). Coronavirus: The world economy at risk. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/berlin/publikationen/Interim-Economic-Assessment-2-March-2020.pdf
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2020b). L'économie mondiale sur une ligne de crête, Perspectives Economiques. Retrieved from http://www.oecd.org/perspectives-economiques/juin-2020/
  • Ouest France. (2020). Hôtels, restaurants : Un pan de l’economie Française est menacé. Retrieved from https://www.ouest-france.fr/economie/entreprises/crise-du-coronavirus/entretien-hotel-restaurants-un-pan-de-l-economie-francaise-est-menace-6817145
  • Pandemi yüzünden bir milyar insan açlık tehdidi altında. (2020, 7 July). One billion people under the threat of starvation because of the pandemic. Deutsche Well Türkçe. Retrieved from: https://www.dw.com/tr/pandemi-y%C3%BCz%C3%BCnden-bir-milyar-insan-a%C3%A7l%C4%B1k-tehdidi-alt%C4%B1nda/a-54083173
  • Philipps, A. (2020). Covid-19 impacts for EMEA real estate. Retrieved from https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/insights/covid-19/covid19-impacts-for-european-real-estate
  • Sachs, T. (2020). Covid-19 and labour law in France. European Labour Law Journal, 11(3), 286–291. https://doi.org/10.1177/2031952520934565
  • Sade, G. (2020). Covid-19 krizi kamu borçlarını artırıyor mu?, [Does Covid-19 Increase Public Debts?] Euronews. Retrieved from https://tr.euronews.com
  • Statista. (2020a). France: public debt 2017-2022. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/463298/public-debt-france/
  • Statista. (2020b). Unemployment rate forecasts in Europe 2020-2021. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1115276/coronavirus-european-unemployment/
  • Tarver, E. (2019). Supply shock. Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/supplyshock.asp#:~:text=change%20in%20price.-
  • The Latest: French Exports Down 21.5% As Pandemic Bites. (2020). French exports down. Retrieved from https://www.wmdt.com/i/the-latest-french-exports-down-21-5-as-pandemic-bites-2/
  • Trading Economics. (2020a). France tourism revenues, Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/france/tourism-revenues
  • Trading Economics. (2020b). European countries governments public debts ratio to their GDP. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp
  • UK Reports Highest Number of Quarterly Job Losses Since 2009 Recession. (2020, 11 August). Job losses since 2009. Retrieved from https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/11/uk-reports-highest-number-of-quarterly-job-losses-since-2009-recession
  • United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2020). Covid-19 and tourism assessing the economic consequences, 6 – 17. Retrieved from https://unctad.org/webflyer/covid-19-and-tourism-assessing-economic-consequences
  • United Nations Industrial Development Organization. (2020). World manufacturing production. Retrieved from https://www.unido.org/news/global-manufacturing-production-drops-sharply-due-economic-disruptions-caused-covid-19-unido-report
  • United Nations World Tourism Organization. (2020). COVID-19: Putting people first. Retrieved from https://www.unwto.org/tourism-covid-19#:~:text=The%20worldwide%20outbreak%20of%20COVID,and%20for%20the%20tourism%20sector.
  • Vie-Publique. (2020). Le commerce extérieur de la France s’améliore en 2019. Retrieved from https://www.vie-publique.fr/en-bref/273282-le-commerce-exterieur-de-la-france-sameliore-en-2019
  • Wakimi, N. (2020). Hutchinson, filiale de Total, va supprimer un millier d’emplois en France. Retrieved from https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2020/06/05/hutchinson-filiale-de-total-va-supprimer-un-millier-d-emplois-en-france_6041926_3234.html
  • Workman, D. (2020a). France’s top 10 exports. Retrieved from http://www.worldstopexports.com/frances-top-10-imports/
  • Workman, D. (2020b). France’s top 10 imports. Retrieved from http://www.worldstopexports.com/frances-top-10-imports/
  • World Travel and Tourism Council. (2020). Impact assessment of the covid-19 outbreak on international tourism. Retrieved from https://www.unwto.org/impact-assessment-of-the-covid-19-outbreak-on-international-tourism
Toplam 78 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Dilara Sülün 0000-0001-8874-5194

Yayımlanma Tarihi 26 Aralık 2020
Kabul Tarihi 10 Aralık 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 5 Sayı: Özel Sayı

Kaynak Göster

APA Sülün, D. (2020). The Impact of Covid-19 on France’s Economy with an Overview on The European Economy. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(Özel Sayı), 115-136. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.810739