Türkiye’de Demografik Faktörlerin Büyüme Yavaşlaması Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 3, 646 - 659, 30.12.2021

Uğur Ursavaş Şükrü Apaydın Neslihan Ursavaş

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.992910

Öz

Ülkelerin demografik yapısı büyüme ve kalkınma sürecinde önemli bir role sahiptir. Türkiye, demografik geçiş sürecini henüz tamamlamamış ve demografik fırsat penceresinin de henüz kapanmadığı ülkelerden biridir. Demografik fırsat penceresinden avantaj sağlamak ise uygulanacak politikalara bağlıdır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1954-2019 döneminde, demografik faktörler ile büyüme yavaşlaması arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Bu çerçevede Eichengreen, Park ve Shin (2011) tarafından geliştirilen büyüme yavaşlaması metodolojisi çerçevesinde probit regresyon yöntemi kullanılarak demografik faktörlerin büyüme yavaşlaması olasılığı üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de demografik yapı ile büyüme yavaşlaması olasılığı arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Probit regresyon sonuçlarına göre doğumda beklenen yaşam süresi, nüfus yoğunluğu ve kentsel nüfus ile büyüme yavaşlaması olasılığı arasında negatif yönlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı; kişi başı gelir, bağımlılık oranı, genç bağımlılık oranı ve doğurganlık oranı ile büyüme yavaşlaması olasılığı arasında pozitif yönlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Analizde kullanılan değişkenlerden, yaşlı bağımlılık oranı ile büyüme yavaşlaması olasılığı arasında anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Demografi, Probit Model, Ekonomik Büyüme, Büyüme Yavaşlaması

The Impact of Demographic Factors on Growth Slowdown in Turkey

Öz

The demographic structure of countries has an important role in the growth and development process. Turkey is one of the countries which has not yet completed the demographic transition process, and the demographic window of opportunity still exists in Turkey. Taking advantage of the demographic window of opportunity depends on policies to be implemented. In this paper, we analyze the link between demographic factors and the growth slowdown in Turkey over the period 1954-2019. In this context, using the probit regression method, we analyze the impact of demographic factors on the probability of growth slowdown within the framework of the growth slowdown methodology developed by Eichengreen, Park and Shin (2011). The results show that there is a statistically significant relationship between demographic structure and the likelihood of growth slowdown in Turkey. According to probit regression results, there is a statistically and negative relationship between life expectancy at birth, urban population, population density, and the likelihood of growth slowdown. In contrast, GDP per capita, dependency ratio, young dependency ratio and fertility rate are positively and significantly related to the probability of growth slowdown. Furthermore, there is no significant relationship between the old dependency ratio and the likelihood of growth slowdown. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic growth, Growth slowdown, Demographics, Probit model

Kaynakça

• Abu-Ghaida, D. and Klasen, S. (2004). The costs of missing the millennium development goal on gender equity. World Development, 32(7), 1075-1107. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.02.003
• Aiyar, M. S., Duval, M. R. A., Puy, M. D., Wu, M. Y. and Zhang, M. L. (2013). Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap (IMF Working Paper No. 13/71). Retrieved from https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/071/article-A001-en.xml
• Aiyar, S. and Mody, A. (2011). The demographic dividend: Evidence from the Indian States (IMF Working Papers 2011/038). Retrieved from https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2011/038/article-A001-en.xml
• Aiyar, S., Ebeke, C. and Shao, X. (2016). The impact of workforce aging on European productivity (IMF Working Paper No. 238). Retrieved from https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2016/238/article-A001-en.xml
• Andrews, D., Oberoi, J., Wirjanto, T. and Zhou, C. (2018). Demography and inflation: An international study. North American Actuarial Journal, 22(2), 210-222. doi:10.1080/10920277.2017.1387572
• Barlow, R. (1994). Population growth and economic growth: Some more correlations. Population and Development Review, 20(1), 153-165. doi:10.2307/2137634
• Bloom, D. E. and Canning, D. (2004). Global demographic change: Dimensions and economic significance (NBER Working Paper No. 10817). doi:10.3386/w10817
• Bloom, D. E. and Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455. doi:10.1093/wber/12.3.419
• Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. and Finlay, J. E. (2010). Population aging and economic growth in Asia. In T. Ito and A.K. Rose (Eds.), The economic consequences of demographic change in East Asia (pp. 61-89). doi:10.7208/chicago/9780226386881.003.0003
• Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. and Malaney, P. N. (1999). Population dynamics and economic growth in Asia (CID Working Paper Series No. 15). Retrieved from https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/39377553/015.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
• Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. (2001). Economic growth and the demographic transition. (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 8685). doi:10.3386/w8685
• Bloom, D., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Santa Monica CA: Rand Corporation.
• Bloom, D., Canning, D., Hu, L., Liu, Y., Mahal, A. and Yip, W. (2006, June). Why has China's economy taken off faster than India's. Paper presented at the meeting at Pan Asia Conference of the Stanford Center for International Development and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Stanford, CA. Retrieved from https://paa2007.princeton.edu/papers/70281
• Cruz, M. and Ahmed, S. A. (2018). On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty. World Development, 105, 95-106. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.018
• Demir, O. ve Özkaya, Y (2021). Nüfusun yaş yapısı-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi; En büyük 20 ekonomi örneği. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(41), 17-32. doi:10.35343/kosbed.768801.
• Eichengreen, B., Park, D. and Shin, K. (2011). When fast growing economies slow down: International evidence and implications for China. (The National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 16919). doi:10.3386/w16919
• Feyrer, J. (2007). Demographics and productivity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 100-109. doi:10.1162/rest.89.1.100
• Giap, T. K., Duong, L. N. T. and Xiao, L. (2017). Empirical analysis of growth slowdown in ASEAN. The Journal of Developing Areas, 51(3), 363-376. doi:10.1353/jda.2017.0078
• Greene, H. William (2003). Econometric analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
• Hausmann, R., Pritchett, L. and Rodrik, D. (2004). Growth accelerations. (The National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 10566). doi:10.3386/w10566
• Hoşgör, Ş. ve Tansel, A. (2010). 2050'ye doğru nüfusbilim ve yönetim: Eğitim, işgücü, sağlık ve sosyal güvenlik sistemlerine yansımalar (TUSIAD-T/2010/11/505). Erişim adresi: https://tusiad.org/tr/yayinlar/raporlar/item/5187-2050ye-dogru-nufusbilim-ve-yonetim--egitim--isgucu--saglik-ve-sosyal-guvenlik-sistemlerine-yansimalar
• Isaksson, A. (2007). Determinants of total factor productivity: A literature review. Research and Statistics Branch, UNIDO. Retrieved from https://open.unido.org/api/documents
• Jayasooriya, S. P. (2017). Growth slowdowns, middle-income trap, and demographic profile in South Asia (ADBI Working Paper No. 736). Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/163235/1/887685668.pdf
• Juselius, M. and Takáts, E. (2015). Can demography affect inflation and monetary policy? (BIS Working Papers No. 485). Retrieved from https://www.nbp.pl/badania/seminaria/8iii2016.pdf
• Kaygısız, A. D. ve Ezanoğlu, Z. (2021). Demografik değişimin enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, 30(1), 45-64. doi:10.26650/siyasal.2021.30.1.0024
• Kinugasa, T. and Mason, A. (2007). A why countries become wealthy: The effects of adult longevity on saving. World Development, 35(1), 1–23. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2006.09.002
• Kögel, T. (2005). Youth dependency and total factor productivity. Journal of Development Economics, 76(1), 147-173. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.11.003
• Kuznets, S. (1960). Population change and aggregate output. N. J.: Princeton University Press.
• Kuznets, S. (1967). Population and economic growth. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 111(3), 170–193. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
• Lee, J. W. (2018). Convergence success and the middle-income trap. (European Bank Working Paper No. 211). doi:10.1111/deve.12214
• Loayza, N., Schmitt-Hebel, K. and Servén, L. (2000). What drives private saving across the world? Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(2), 165–181. doi:10.1162/003465300558678
• Mahlberg, B., Freund, I. and Prskawetz, A. (2013). Ageing, productivity and wages in Austria: Sector level evidence. Empirica, 40(4), 561-584. doi:10.1007/s10663-012-9192-9
• Malmberg, B. (1994). Age structure effects on economic growth -Swedish evidence. Scandinavian Economic History Review, 42(3), 279-295. doi:10.1080/03585522.1994.10415889
• Malthus, T. R. (1798). Essay on the principle of population, as it affects the future improvement of society with remarks on the speculation of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and other writers. UK: Penguin Classics.
• Nguyen, H. M. and Nguyen, L. D. (2018). The relationship between urbanization and economic growth. International Journal of Social Economics, 46(2), 316-339. doi:10.1108/IJSE-12-2016-0358
• Özer, H. (2004). Nitel değişkenli ekonometrik modeller. Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
• Schultz, T. P. (2005). Demographic determinants of savings: Estimating and ınterpreting the aggregate association in Asia (IZA DP Working Paper No. 1479). Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/20778/1/dp1479.pdf
• Tang, J. and MacLeod, C. (2006). Labour force ageing and productivity performance in Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D'économique, 39(2), 582-603. doi:10.1111/j.0008-4085.2006.00361.x
• Tansel, A. (2012). 2050'ye doğru nüfusbilim ve yönetim: İşgücü piyasasına bakış (TÜSİAD-T/2012-11/536). Erişim adresi: https://tusiad.org/tr/yayinlar/raporlar/item/6062-2050ye-dogru-nufusbilim-ve-yonetim-isgucu-piyasasina-bakis
• Ursavaş, U. (2020). Total factor productivity growth and demographics: The case of Turkey. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 81-90. doi:10.30784/epfad.690256
• Ursavaş, U. and Sarıbaş, H. (2020). Middle-income trap and factors affecting the risk of growth slowdown in upper-middle-income countries. Economics and Business Letters, 9(4), 350-360. doi:10.17811/ebl.9.4.2020.350-360
• Yoon, J. W., Kim, J. and Lee, J. (2018). Impact of demographic changes on inflation and the macroeconomy. KDI Journal of Economic Policy, 40(1), 1-30. doi:10.23895/kdijep.2018.40.1.1
• Zampelis, G. (2015). Growth slowdowns and middle income trap: An empirical study on Latin American countries (Master thesis). Retrieved from http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.965.9802&rep=rep1&type=pdf