Araştırma Makalesi
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Eksik Bilgi Altında Ekonomik Koordinasyon Problemi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 7 Sayı: Özel Sayı, 33 - 44, 24.10.2022
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1158721

Öz

Finansal piyasaların sağlıklı bir şekilde işlemesi için iyi yönetilen bir ekonomi oldukça önemlidir. Ekonomiyi yöneten liderler ve bürokratlar bir kriz riski durumunda ne yapılması gerektiğini bilseler bile eksik bilgi altında koordinasyon problemi yüzünden ekonomik krizlerden kaçınmak mümkün olmayabilir. Bu çalışmada bölümsel bilgi yapısına sahip ekonomik aktörlerin eksik bilgi altında koordinasyon problemi ele alınmaktadır. Basit bir kuramsal model ile aslında herkesin bildiği bir finansal riskin, ekonomiyi yöneten lider ve bürokratların kriz durumunda ne yapılması gerektiğini bildikleri ideal bir durumda bile ortak bilgi olmadan engellenemeyebileceği gösterilmektedir. Herkesin bildiği finansal risklerin ilgili otoriteler tarafından açıkça kamuya ilanının gerekli olup olmadığı tartışılmaktadır. Sonuçlarımız, herkesin bildiği bir bilgiyi paylaşsa bile bir ekonomik koordinasyon merkezinin karşılıklı bilgiyi ortak bilgiye çevirerek ekonomik aktörlerin bir finansal kriz riski durumunda yapılması gerekeni yapmasını sağlayabileceğini göstermektedir. Çalışmamız ortak bilgi ile karşılıklı bilgi arasındaki keskin farkı vurgulayarak eksik bilgi altındaki koordinasyon problemlerinde yüksek dereceli bilgilerin önemli olduğunu bir kez daha ortaya koymaktadır.

Teşekkür

Yazar IERFM2022 kongresindeki sunumuna katılarak geribildirim veren herkese teşekkürlerini sunar.

Kaynakça

  • Abreu, D. and Brunnermeier, M.K. (2003). Bubbles and crashes. Econometrica, 71(1), 173-204. https://www.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00393
  • Aumann, R.J. (1976). Agreeing to disagree. The Annals of Statistics, 4(6), 1236-1239. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
  • Carlsson, H. and van Damme, E. (1993). Global games and equilibrium selection. Econometrica, 61(5), 989-1018. https://www.doi.org/10.2307/2951491
  • Dalkıran, N.A. (2012). Issues of robustness in economics of information (Doctoral dissertation). Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA.
  • Dalkıran, N.A. and Hoffman, M. (2011). Common knowledge and equilibria switching. Issues of robustness in economics of information. Northwestern University ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 2012. 3508509. Ann Arbor MI, USA.
  • Dalkiran, N.A., Hoffman M., Paturi R., Ricketts D. and Vattani A. (2012). Common knowledge and state-dependent equilibria. In M. Serna (Ed.), Algoritmic game theory (pp. 84-95). Papers presented at the International Symposium on Algorithmic Game Theory. Barcelona, Spain. Berlin: Springer. https://www.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33996-7_8
  • Diamond, D.W. and Dybvig, P.H. (1983). Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity. Journal of Political Economy, 91(3), 401-419. https://www.doi.org/10.1086/261155
  • Fagin, R., Halpern, J.Y., Moses, Y. and Vardi, M. (1995). Reasoning about knowledge. Boston: MIT Press.
  • Friedell, M.F. (1969). On the structure of shared awareness. Behavioral Science, 14(1), 28-39. https://www.doi.org/10.1002/bs.3830140105
  • Geanakoplos, J. (1994). Common knowledge. In R. Aumann and S. Hart (Eds.), Handbook of game theory with economic applications, Volume: 2 (pp. 1437-1496). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science B.V. https://www.doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0005(05)80072-4
  • Hintikka, K.J.J. (1962). Knowledge and belief: An introduction to the logic of the two notions. New York: Cornell University Press.
  • Lewis, D. (1969). Convention: A philosophical study. Boston: Harvard University Press.
  • Littlewood, J.E. (1953). A mathematician's miscellany. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Morris, S. and Shin, H.S. (1997). Approximate common knowledge and coordination: Recent lessons from game theory. Journal of Logic, Language and Information, 6, 171-190. https://www.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008270519000
  • Morris, S. and Shin, H.S. (1998). Unique equilibrium in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks. American Economic Review, 88(3), 587-597. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
  • Morris, S. and Shin, H.S. (2003). Global games: Theory and applications. In M. Dewatripont, L. Hansen and S. Turnovsky (Eds.), Advances in economics and econometrics (pp. 56-114). Paper presented at the Eight World Congress of the Econometric Society. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Osborne, M.J. and Rubinstein, A. (1994). A course in game theory. Boston: MIT Press.
  • Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S. (2009). This time is different. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://www.doi.org/10.1515/9781400831722
  • Rubinstein, A. (1989). The electronic mail game: Strategic behavior under “almost common knowledge”. American Economic Review, 79(3), 385-391. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/

Economic Coordination under Incomplete Information

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 7 Sayı: Özel Sayı, 33 - 44, 24.10.2022
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1158721

Öz

A well-functioning economy is essential for financial markets. The leaders and bureaucrats of the critical institutions in an economy may not be able to avoid financial risks due to coordination problems under incomplete information, even when they are competent and know what to do. This study considers the coordination problem under incomplete information of economic agents with partitional information structures. In a simple theoretical model, we show that a financial risk that everybody knows may not be prevented without common knowledge, even in an ideal scenario where the leaders and bureaucrats who run the critical institutions of an economy know what to do to avoid this risk. We discuss whether the authorities should publicly disclose financial risks that are known to everyone. We conclude that an institution that coordinates the information among the key institutions of an economy may help mitigate the financial risks by turning mutual knowledge into common knowledge. Our study highlights once again the stark difference between mutual knowledge and common knowledge, pointing out that higher order knowledge is important in coordination problems.

Kaynakça

  • Abreu, D. and Brunnermeier, M.K. (2003). Bubbles and crashes. Econometrica, 71(1), 173-204. https://www.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00393
  • Aumann, R.J. (1976). Agreeing to disagree. The Annals of Statistics, 4(6), 1236-1239. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
  • Carlsson, H. and van Damme, E. (1993). Global games and equilibrium selection. Econometrica, 61(5), 989-1018. https://www.doi.org/10.2307/2951491
  • Dalkıran, N.A. (2012). Issues of robustness in economics of information (Doctoral dissertation). Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA.
  • Dalkıran, N.A. and Hoffman, M. (2011). Common knowledge and equilibria switching. Issues of robustness in economics of information. Northwestern University ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 2012. 3508509. Ann Arbor MI, USA.
  • Dalkiran, N.A., Hoffman M., Paturi R., Ricketts D. and Vattani A. (2012). Common knowledge and state-dependent equilibria. In M. Serna (Ed.), Algoritmic game theory (pp. 84-95). Papers presented at the International Symposium on Algorithmic Game Theory. Barcelona, Spain. Berlin: Springer. https://www.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33996-7_8
  • Diamond, D.W. and Dybvig, P.H. (1983). Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity. Journal of Political Economy, 91(3), 401-419. https://www.doi.org/10.1086/261155
  • Fagin, R., Halpern, J.Y., Moses, Y. and Vardi, M. (1995). Reasoning about knowledge. Boston: MIT Press.
  • Friedell, M.F. (1969). On the structure of shared awareness. Behavioral Science, 14(1), 28-39. https://www.doi.org/10.1002/bs.3830140105
  • Geanakoplos, J. (1994). Common knowledge. In R. Aumann and S. Hart (Eds.), Handbook of game theory with economic applications, Volume: 2 (pp. 1437-1496). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science B.V. https://www.doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0005(05)80072-4
  • Hintikka, K.J.J. (1962). Knowledge and belief: An introduction to the logic of the two notions. New York: Cornell University Press.
  • Lewis, D. (1969). Convention: A philosophical study. Boston: Harvard University Press.
  • Littlewood, J.E. (1953). A mathematician's miscellany. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Morris, S. and Shin, H.S. (1997). Approximate common knowledge and coordination: Recent lessons from game theory. Journal of Logic, Language and Information, 6, 171-190. https://www.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008270519000
  • Morris, S. and Shin, H.S. (1998). Unique equilibrium in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks. American Economic Review, 88(3), 587-597. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
  • Morris, S. and Shin, H.S. (2003). Global games: Theory and applications. In M. Dewatripont, L. Hansen and S. Turnovsky (Eds.), Advances in economics and econometrics (pp. 56-114). Paper presented at the Eight World Congress of the Econometric Society. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Osborne, M.J. and Rubinstein, A. (1994). A course in game theory. Boston: MIT Press.
  • Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S. (2009). This time is different. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://www.doi.org/10.1515/9781400831722
  • Rubinstein, A. (1989). The electronic mail game: Strategic behavior under “almost common knowledge”. American Economic Review, 79(3), 385-391. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
Toplam 19 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Nuh Aygün Dalkıran 0000-0002-0586-0355

Yayımlanma Tarihi 24 Ekim 2022
Kabul Tarihi 17 Ekim 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 7 Sayı: Özel Sayı

Kaynak Göster

APA Dalkıran, N. A. (2022). Eksik Bilgi Altında Ekonomik Koordinasyon Problemi. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(Özel Sayı), 33-44. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1158721