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The Connectedness among Green Bonds and Other Asset Classes: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: Özel Sayı, 160 - 193, 31.10.2025
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1813717

Öz

As climate change intensifies, current climate finance remains insufficient to achieve Paris Agreement goals, particularly in developing countries. Closing this gap requires greater international private capital involvement. However, uncertainties about climate finance instruments in developing markets challenge private investment. This study examines green bonds issued in emerging markets, analyzing their dependencies with debt, equity, and commodity markets using the cross-quantilogram method. Results reveal short-term positive dependencies between green bonds and equity and debt markets, indicating high cross-market contagion initially. Yet, these dependencies diverge after a week. While green bonds maintain a positive medium-term relationship with other debt instruments, their medium-term dependence on equity and commodities turns negative. This negative relationship strengthens under normal market conditions but weakens during extreme market events. These findings highlight green bonds' potential as diversification tools for equity and commodity investors in emerging markets. However, short-term contagion remains a challenge for regulators, demanding further analysis of financial stability implications.

Kaynakça

  • Amerasinghe, N.M., Thwaites, J., Larsen, G. and Ballesteros, A. (2017). Future of the funds: Exploring the architecture of multilateral climate finance. Retrieved from https://www.wri.org/research/future-funds-exploring-architecture-multilateral-climate-finance
  • Amighini, A., Giudici, P. and Ruet, J. (2022). Green finance: An empirical analysis of the green climate fund portfolio structure. Journal of Cleaner Production, 350, 131383-131383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131383
  • Amundi and IFC. (2021). Emerging market green bonds report 2021. Retrieved from https://www.ifc.org/content/dam/ifc/doc/mgrt/202206-emerging-market-green-bonds-report-2021-vf-2.pdf
  • Bacon, C.R. (2004). Practical portfolio performance measurement and attribution. USA: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Bansal, R., Ochoa, M. and Kiku, D. (2016). Climate change and growth risks (NBER Working Paper Series No. 23009). Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w23009
  • Baur, D.G. and Lucey, B.M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. Financial Review, 45(2), 217-229. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.2010.00244.x
  • Benedetti, D., Biffis, E., Chatzimichalakis, F., Fedele, L.L. and Simm, I. (2019). Climate change investment risk: Optimal portfolio construction ahead of the transition to a lower-carbon economy. Annals of Operations Research, 299(1-2), 847-871. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03458-x
  • Buchner, B., Naran, B., Fernandes, P., Padmanabhi, R., Rosane, P., Solomon, M., … Guzmán, S. (2021). Global landscape of climate finance 2021. Retrieved from https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2021/
  • Chatziantoniou, I., Abakah, E.J.A., Gabauer, D. and Tiwari, A.K. (2022). Quantile time–frequency price connectedness between green bond, green equity, sustainable investments and clean energy markets. Journal of Cleaner Production, 361, 132088–132088. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132088
  • Cuculiza, C., Kumar, A., Xin, W. and Zhang, C. (2021). Climate change, analyst forecasts, and market behavior. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3781157
  • Elsayed, A.H., Naifar, N., Nasreen, S. and Tiwari, A.K. (2022). Dependence structure and dynamic connectedness between green bonds and financial markets: Fresh insights from time-frequency analysis before and during COVID-19 pandemic. Energy Economics, 107, 105842. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105842
  • Fama, E.F. (1965). The behavior of stock-market prices. The Journal of Business, 38(1), 34-105. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2350752
  • Ferrer, R., Shahzad, S.J.H. and Soriano, P. (2021). Are green bonds a different asset class? Evidence from time-frequency connectedness analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 292, 125988. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.125988
  • Giglio, S.W., Maggiori, M., Stroebel, J. and Weber, A. (2018). Long-run discounting and climate change: Evidence from real estate (Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 17-22). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2639748
  • Giglio, S., Kelly, B. and Stroebel, J. (2021). Climate finance. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 13(1), 15-36. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-102620-103311
  • Glomsrød, S. and Wei, T. (2018). Business as unusual: The implications of fossil divestment and green bonds for financial flows, economic growth and energy market. Energy for Sustainable Development, 44, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2018.02.005
  • Han, H., Linton, O., Oka, T. and Whang, Y.-J. (2016). The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series. Journal of Econometrics, 193(1), 251-270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.03.001
  • Harrison, C., Chouhan, N., Costa, D., MacGeoch, M. and Xu, X. (2023). Sustainable debt market summary. Retrieved from https://www.climatebonds.net/resources/reports/h1-market-report-2023
  • Huynh, T.D. and Xia, Y. (2020). Climate change news risk and corporate bond returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 56(6), 1985-2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022109020000757
  • IFC & Amundi. (2023). Emerging market green bonds report 2022. Retrieved from https://www.ifc.org/en/insights-reports/2023/emerging-market-green-bonds-report
  • International Capital Markets Association. (2021). Green bond principles voluntary process guidelines for issuing green bonds. Retrieved from https://www.icmagroup.org/sustainable-finance/the-principles-guidelines-and-handbooks/green-bond-principles-gbp/
  • IPCC. (2021). Summary for policymakers 2021. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001
  • IPCC. (2023). Summary for policymakers 2023. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf
  • Global Index Research. (2022). J.P. Morgan EM GB diversified indices. Retrieved from https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm/cib/complex/content/markets/composition-docs/jpmorgan-green-bond-index.pdf
  • Karim, S., Naeem, M.A., Hu, M., Zhang, D. and Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2022). Determining dependence, centrality, and dynamic networks between green bonds and financial markets. Journal of Environmental Management, 318, 115618. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115618
  • Komsta, L. and Novomestky, F. (2022). Moments: Moments, cumulants, skewness, kurtosis and related tests. https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.moments
  • Krueger, P., Sautner, Z. and Starks, L.T. (2019). The importance of climate risks for institutional investors. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3235190
  • Liu, N., Liu, C., Da, B., Zhang, T. and Guan, F. (2021). Dependence and risk spillovers between green bonds and clean energy markets. Journal of Cleaner Production, 279, 123595. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123595
  • Lundgren, A.I., Milicevic, A., Uddin, G.S. and Kang, S.H. (2018). Connectedness network and dependence structure mechanism in green investments. Energy Economics, 72, 145-153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.04.015
  • Markowitz, H. (1952). Modern portfolio theory. Journal of Finance, 7(11), 77-91. Retrieved from https://www.raymondjames.com/
  • Martinez-Diaz, L. and Keenan, J.M. (2020). Managing climate risk in the US financial system. Retrieved from https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/9-9-20%20Report%20of%20the%20Subcommittee%20on%20Climate-Related%20Market%20Risk%20-%20Managing%20Climate%20Risk%20in%20the%20U.S.%20Financial%20System%20for%20posting.pdf
  • Naeem, M.A., Farid, S., Ferrer, R. and Shahzad, S.J.H. (2021). Comparative efficiency of green and conventional bonds pre- and during COVID-19: An asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Energy Policy, 153, 112285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112285
  • Nguyen, T.T.H., Naeem, M.A., Balli, F., Balli, H.O. and Vo, X.V. (2021). Time-frequency comovement among green bonds, stocks, commodities, clean energy, and conventional bonds. Finance Research Letters, 40, 101739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101739
  • Office of Financial Research. (n.d.). OFR financial stress index. Retrieved from https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/
  • Oka, T. (2022). Quantilogram: Cross-quantilogram. Retrieved from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=quantilogram
  • Patton, A., Politis, D.N. and White, H. (2009). Correction to “Automatic block-length selection for the dependent bootstrap” by D. Politis and H. White. Econometric Reviews, 28(4), 372-375. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930802459016
  • Peterson, B.G. and Carl, P. (2020). Performance analytics: Econometric tools for performance and risk analysis. Retrieved from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=PerformanceAnalytics
  • Pham, L. (2021). Frequency connectedness and cross-quantile dependence between green bond and green equity markets. Energy Economics, 98, 105257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105257
  • Politis, D.N. and Romano, J.P. (1994). The stationary bootstrap. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89(428), 1303-1313. https://doi.org/10.2307/2290993
  • Politis, D.N. and White, H. (2004). Automatic block-length selection for the dependent bootstrap. Econometric Reviews, 23(1), 53-70. https://doi.org/10.1081/ETC-120028836
  • Reboredo, J.C. (2018). Green bond and financial markets: Co-movement, diversification and price spillover effects. Energy Economics, 74, 38-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.05.030
  • Sautner, Z., Van Lent, L., Vilkov, G. and Zhang, R. (2023). Firm‐level climate change exposure. The Journal of Finance, 78(3), 1449-1498. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13219
  • Trapletti, A., Hornik, K. and LeBaron, B. (2023). Tseries: Time series analysis and computational finance. https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.tseries
  • Uddin, G.S., Rahman, M.L., Hedström, A. and Ahmed, A. (2019). Cross-quantilogram-based correlation and dependence between renewable energy stock and other asset classes. Energy Economics, 80, 743-759. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.02.014
  • Ulrich, J. (2021). TTR: Technical trading rules. Retrieved from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=TTR
  • UNFCCC. (1992). United Nations conference on environment and development: Framework convention on climate change. International Legal Materials, 31(4), 849-873. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/20693716
  • Wuertz, D., Setz, T., Chalabi, Y., Maechler, M., Boshnakov, G.N. and Boshnakov, M.G.N. (2023). Time series: Financial time series objects (Rmetrics). Retrieved from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=timeSeries

Yeşil Tahvillerin Diğer Yatırım Araçları ile İlişkisinin İncelenmesi: Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalar Örneği

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: Özel Sayı, 160 - 193, 31.10.2025
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1813717

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Amerasinghe, N.M., Thwaites, J., Larsen, G. and Ballesteros, A. (2017). Future of the funds: Exploring the architecture of multilateral climate finance. Retrieved from https://www.wri.org/research/future-funds-exploring-architecture-multilateral-climate-finance
  • Amighini, A., Giudici, P. and Ruet, J. (2022). Green finance: An empirical analysis of the green climate fund portfolio structure. Journal of Cleaner Production, 350, 131383-131383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131383
  • Amundi and IFC. (2021). Emerging market green bonds report 2021. Retrieved from https://www.ifc.org/content/dam/ifc/doc/mgrt/202206-emerging-market-green-bonds-report-2021-vf-2.pdf
  • Bacon, C.R. (2004). Practical portfolio performance measurement and attribution. USA: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Bansal, R., Ochoa, M. and Kiku, D. (2016). Climate change and growth risks (NBER Working Paper Series No. 23009). Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w23009
  • Baur, D.G. and Lucey, B.M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. Financial Review, 45(2), 217-229. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.2010.00244.x
  • Benedetti, D., Biffis, E., Chatzimichalakis, F., Fedele, L.L. and Simm, I. (2019). Climate change investment risk: Optimal portfolio construction ahead of the transition to a lower-carbon economy. Annals of Operations Research, 299(1-2), 847-871. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03458-x
  • Buchner, B., Naran, B., Fernandes, P., Padmanabhi, R., Rosane, P., Solomon, M., … Guzmán, S. (2021). Global landscape of climate finance 2021. Retrieved from https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2021/
  • Chatziantoniou, I., Abakah, E.J.A., Gabauer, D. and Tiwari, A.K. (2022). Quantile time–frequency price connectedness between green bond, green equity, sustainable investments and clean energy markets. Journal of Cleaner Production, 361, 132088–132088. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132088
  • Cuculiza, C., Kumar, A., Xin, W. and Zhang, C. (2021). Climate change, analyst forecasts, and market behavior. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3781157
  • Elsayed, A.H., Naifar, N., Nasreen, S. and Tiwari, A.K. (2022). Dependence structure and dynamic connectedness between green bonds and financial markets: Fresh insights from time-frequency analysis before and during COVID-19 pandemic. Energy Economics, 107, 105842. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105842
  • Fama, E.F. (1965). The behavior of stock-market prices. The Journal of Business, 38(1), 34-105. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2350752
  • Ferrer, R., Shahzad, S.J.H. and Soriano, P. (2021). Are green bonds a different asset class? Evidence from time-frequency connectedness analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 292, 125988. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.125988
  • Giglio, S.W., Maggiori, M., Stroebel, J. and Weber, A. (2018). Long-run discounting and climate change: Evidence from real estate (Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 17-22). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2639748
  • Giglio, S., Kelly, B. and Stroebel, J. (2021). Climate finance. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 13(1), 15-36. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-102620-103311
  • Glomsrød, S. and Wei, T. (2018). Business as unusual: The implications of fossil divestment and green bonds for financial flows, economic growth and energy market. Energy for Sustainable Development, 44, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2018.02.005
  • Han, H., Linton, O., Oka, T. and Whang, Y.-J. (2016). The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series. Journal of Econometrics, 193(1), 251-270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.03.001
  • Harrison, C., Chouhan, N., Costa, D., MacGeoch, M. and Xu, X. (2023). Sustainable debt market summary. Retrieved from https://www.climatebonds.net/resources/reports/h1-market-report-2023
  • Huynh, T.D. and Xia, Y. (2020). Climate change news risk and corporate bond returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 56(6), 1985-2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022109020000757
  • IFC & Amundi. (2023). Emerging market green bonds report 2022. Retrieved from https://www.ifc.org/en/insights-reports/2023/emerging-market-green-bonds-report
  • International Capital Markets Association. (2021). Green bond principles voluntary process guidelines for issuing green bonds. Retrieved from https://www.icmagroup.org/sustainable-finance/the-principles-guidelines-and-handbooks/green-bond-principles-gbp/
  • IPCC. (2021). Summary for policymakers 2021. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001
  • IPCC. (2023). Summary for policymakers 2023. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf
  • Global Index Research. (2022). J.P. Morgan EM GB diversified indices. Retrieved from https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm/cib/complex/content/markets/composition-docs/jpmorgan-green-bond-index.pdf
  • Karim, S., Naeem, M.A., Hu, M., Zhang, D. and Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2022). Determining dependence, centrality, and dynamic networks between green bonds and financial markets. Journal of Environmental Management, 318, 115618. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115618
  • Komsta, L. and Novomestky, F. (2022). Moments: Moments, cumulants, skewness, kurtosis and related tests. https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.moments
  • Krueger, P., Sautner, Z. and Starks, L.T. (2019). The importance of climate risks for institutional investors. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3235190
  • Liu, N., Liu, C., Da, B., Zhang, T. and Guan, F. (2021). Dependence and risk spillovers between green bonds and clean energy markets. Journal of Cleaner Production, 279, 123595. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123595
  • Lundgren, A.I., Milicevic, A., Uddin, G.S. and Kang, S.H. (2018). Connectedness network and dependence structure mechanism in green investments. Energy Economics, 72, 145-153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.04.015
  • Markowitz, H. (1952). Modern portfolio theory. Journal of Finance, 7(11), 77-91. Retrieved from https://www.raymondjames.com/
  • Martinez-Diaz, L. and Keenan, J.M. (2020). Managing climate risk in the US financial system. Retrieved from https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/9-9-20%20Report%20of%20the%20Subcommittee%20on%20Climate-Related%20Market%20Risk%20-%20Managing%20Climate%20Risk%20in%20the%20U.S.%20Financial%20System%20for%20posting.pdf
  • Naeem, M.A., Farid, S., Ferrer, R. and Shahzad, S.J.H. (2021). Comparative efficiency of green and conventional bonds pre- and during COVID-19: An asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Energy Policy, 153, 112285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112285
  • Nguyen, T.T.H., Naeem, M.A., Balli, F., Balli, H.O. and Vo, X.V. (2021). Time-frequency comovement among green bonds, stocks, commodities, clean energy, and conventional bonds. Finance Research Letters, 40, 101739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101739
  • Office of Financial Research. (n.d.). OFR financial stress index. Retrieved from https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/
  • Oka, T. (2022). Quantilogram: Cross-quantilogram. Retrieved from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=quantilogram
  • Patton, A., Politis, D.N. and White, H. (2009). Correction to “Automatic block-length selection for the dependent bootstrap” by D. Politis and H. White. Econometric Reviews, 28(4), 372-375. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930802459016
  • Peterson, B.G. and Carl, P. (2020). Performance analytics: Econometric tools for performance and risk analysis. Retrieved from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=PerformanceAnalytics
  • Pham, L. (2021). Frequency connectedness and cross-quantile dependence between green bond and green equity markets. Energy Economics, 98, 105257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105257
  • Politis, D.N. and Romano, J.P. (1994). The stationary bootstrap. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89(428), 1303-1313. https://doi.org/10.2307/2290993
  • Politis, D.N. and White, H. (2004). Automatic block-length selection for the dependent bootstrap. Econometric Reviews, 23(1), 53-70. https://doi.org/10.1081/ETC-120028836
  • Reboredo, J.C. (2018). Green bond and financial markets: Co-movement, diversification and price spillover effects. Energy Economics, 74, 38-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.05.030
  • Sautner, Z., Van Lent, L., Vilkov, G. and Zhang, R. (2023). Firm‐level climate change exposure. The Journal of Finance, 78(3), 1449-1498. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13219
  • Trapletti, A., Hornik, K. and LeBaron, B. (2023). Tseries: Time series analysis and computational finance. https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.tseries
  • Uddin, G.S., Rahman, M.L., Hedström, A. and Ahmed, A. (2019). Cross-quantilogram-based correlation and dependence between renewable energy stock and other asset classes. Energy Economics, 80, 743-759. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.02.014
  • Ulrich, J. (2021). TTR: Technical trading rules. Retrieved from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=TTR
  • UNFCCC. (1992). United Nations conference on environment and development: Framework convention on climate change. International Legal Materials, 31(4), 849-873. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/20693716
  • Wuertz, D., Setz, T., Chalabi, Y., Maechler, M., Boshnakov, G.N. and Boshnakov, M.G.N. (2023). Time series: Financial time series objects (Rmetrics). Retrieved from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=timeSeries
Toplam 47 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Sermaye Piyasaları
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Mohammad Alkasem

İskender Demirbilek

Esra Pekmez

Murat Akbalık

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ekim 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 7 Ağustos 2025
Kabul Tarihi 19 Ekim 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 10 Sayı: Özel Sayı

Kaynak Göster

APA Alkasem, M., Demirbilek, İ., Pekmez, E., Akbalık, M. (2025). The Connectedness among Green Bonds and Other Asset Classes: Evidence from Emerging Markets. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(Özel Sayı), 160-193. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1813717