Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Human Capital Accumulation in Turkey: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Öz

This study examines the impact of financial development and economic growth on human capital accumulation in Turkey during the period 1980-2019. Departing from the traditional linear modeling framework, the analysis employs a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to capture potential asymmetries arising from positive and negative shocks in financial development and economic growth. Human capital is modeled as a function of the composite financial development index and real economic growth using annual data obtained from international databases. Empirical findings reveal a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables. Financial development has a negative impact on human capital in the short term, but its effect turns positive in the long term. This situation indicates that transition period adjustment costs and the initial misallocation of credit may temporarily exclude education-related investments. In contrast, economic growth continuously increases human capital accumulation. In the short term, asymmetry is observed, with positive growth shocks having a stronger effect than negative shocks. Overall, the results emphasize the importance of well-functioning and inclusive financial systems alongside sustainable economic growth to promote human capital formation in developing economies such as Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Human Capital
• Financial Development
• Economic Growth
• NARDL

Türkiye'de Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Beşerî Sermaye Birikimi: Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1980-2019 döneminde Türkiye'de finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyümenin beşerî sermaye birikimi üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Geleneksel doğrusal modelleme çerçevesinden ayrılan analiz, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyümedeki olumlu ve olumsuz şoklardan kaynaklanan potansiyel asimetrileri yakalamak için doğrusal olmayan otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (NARDL) yaklaşımını kullanmaktadır. Beşerî sermaye, uluslararası veri tabanlarından elde edilen yıllık veriler kullanılarak, bileşik finansal gelişme endeksi ve reel ekonomik büyümenin bir fonksiyonu olarak modellenmiştir. Ampirik bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Finansal gelişme kısa vadede beşerî sermaye üzerinde olumsuz bir etki yaratırken, uzun vadede etkisi olumluya dönmektedir. Bu durum, geçiş dönemi uyum maliyetleri ve kredilerin başlangıçta yanlış tahsis edilmesinin eğitimle ilgili yatırımları geçici olarak dışlayabileceğini göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, ekonomik büyüme beşerî sermaye birikimini sürekli olarak artırmaktadır. Kısa vadede asimetri olduğu ve pozitif büyüme şoklarının negatif şoklardan daha güçlü bir etkiye sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Sonuçlar genel olarak, Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde beşerî sermaye oluşumunu teşvik etmek için, sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümeyle birlikte iyi işleyen ve kapsayıcı finansal sistemlerin önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Beşerî Sermaye
• Finansal Gelişme
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• NARDL

Kaynakça

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