At Yarışı Gelirlerinin Değerlendirilmesi ve Ona Etkili Faktörler

Öz

Bu çalışmada dünyanın ilk 10 ülkesinde 2002 ve 2011 yılları arasında at yarışı gelirlerinde meydana gelen değişimin 2012 reel değerleriyle incelenmesi ve Türkiye’de at yarış gelirleri üzerindeki belirleyicilerin tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. İhtiyaç duyulan veriler Uluslararası At Yarış Otoriteleri Federasyonu ve Tür- kiye Jokey Kulübünden temin edilmiştir. Gelir endeksleri hesaplanırken 2002 yılı temel yıl olarak seçilmiştir. At yarış gelirleri üzerindeki belirleyicilerin tahimininde adım adım seçme ve eleme regresyon prosedürü kullanılmıştır. Reel değerlerle start başına ve at başına para ödülü endeksleri ilk 10 ülkenin ortalamasına göre sırasıyla 163 ve 172, Türkiye için ise sırasıyla 95 ve 78 olarak belirlenmiştir. Regresyon modeline dahil olan değişkenler istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuş ve para ödülü ve bahis gelirlerindeki toplam varyansın sırasıyla %91 (p<0.001) ve %22 ’sini (p<.05) açıklamışlardır. Özellikle Anerike Birleşik Devletleri, İngiltere ve Türkiye’de aşağı yönlü bir trend izleyen at yarışı gelirleri için alternatif kaynakların bulunmasına ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Türk at yarışı endüstrisinde uzun dönemli ekonomik sürdürülebilirliğin sağlanabilmesi için toplam start sayısı artırılabilir ve vergi oranları azaltılabilir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• At yarışı,ekonomi,endeks,gelir,model

An Evaluation of Horse Racing Revenues and Factors Affecting It*

Öz

The present study aimed to investigate periodic chances in horse racing revenues between the 2002 and 2011 with the real values of 2012 in the world’s top 10 countries, and to estimate the determinants of Turkey’s horse racing revenues. The present study was based on data obtained from International Fed- eration of Horce Racing Authorities and Turkish Jockey Club. Revenue indices were calculated using the 2002 as the base year. Stepwise regression procedures were used to estimate the determinants of horse racing revenues. According to the average of the top 10 countries per start and per horse prize money indices with real values were found 163 and 172, respectively; they were found 95 and 78 for Turkey, re- spectively. Variables included the regression models were found to be statistically significant predictors and the models explained 91% (p<0.001) and 22% (p<0.05) of the total variance for prize money payment and betting revenue, respectively. There is a need for finding alternative resources for horse racing revenues, which show a downward tendency especially in United States, United Kingdom and Turkey. In order to en- sure long–term economic sustainability in the Turkish horse racing industry, total number of starts could be increased, and tax rates could be reduced.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economics,horse racing,index,model,revenue

Kaynakça

1. 1. Agha SR, and Alnahal MJ.Neural network and multiple linear regression to predict school children dimensions for ergonomic school furniture design. Appl Ergon 2012; 43:979-84.
2. 2. Akyüz İ. Geçmişten günümüze Şanlıurfa hipodromu at yarışları ile ilgili bir araştırma. YYU Veteriner Fakultesi Dergisi 2012; 23:159-66.
3. 3. Albers N. Gambling market and individual patterns of gambling in Germany. J Gambl Stud 1997; 13:125-44.
4. 4. Aiken LS, West SG, Pitts SC. Multiple linear regressions. In, Handbook of Psychology. 2003; 19: 481-507. Wiley Online Library, New York, USA.
5. 5. Ali MM, Thalheimer R. Transportation costs and product demand: wagering on parimutuel horse racing. Appl Econ 1997; 29: 529-42.
6. 6. Anonymous. Horse racing history. http://www.equine world.co.uk/horse_sports/horse_ racing_history.asp#.UrRWB9JdWE4; Accessed: 21.02.2012
7. 7. Anonymous. Horse breeding in the word economy. International Seminar. Sheraton, Ankara, Turkey. http://www.tjk.org/; Accessed: 04.03.2013
8. 8. Digard JP. Un animal interme´diaire: le cheval. In, Les francais et leurs animaux, Fayard, Paris, 1999; pp. 51-70.

9. 9. Draper NR, Smith, H. Selecting the “Best” Regression Equation, in Applied Regression Analysis, Third Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA. 1998; doi: 10.1002/9781118625590.ch15
10. 10. Ellis P, Watkins KL. International movement of athletic horses – quarantine and regulatory controls. In, Equine sports medicine and surgery, Elsevier, Amsterdam. 2004; pp.1227-38,
11. 11. European Central Bank. Statistics. http://www.ecb.int/stats/html/index.en.html; Accessed: 17.02.2012
12. 12. Forrest D. Sport and gambling. Oxford Rev Econ Pol 2003; 19, 598-611.
13. 13. Golec J, Tamarkin M. Bettors love skewness, not risk, at the horse track. J Pol Econ 1998; 106: 205-25.
14. 14. Gordon J. The horse industry contributing to the Australian economy. A report of The Rural Indisturies Research and Development Corporation. In, RIRDC Publication No 01/083, Canberra, Australia, Science 2013; 33:1021-30.
15. 15. Hoye R. Governance reform in Australian horse racing. Managing Leisure 2007;11:129–38.
16. 16. International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA). Numerical and financial statistics.http://www.ifhaonline.org/wageringDisplay.asp?section=4&country=66; Accessed: 26.07.2013
17. 17. Jackson MA, Vizard AL, Anderson GA, Clarke AF, Whitton RC. Association between the purchase price of thoroughbred yearlings and their performance during the 2- and 3-year-old racing seasons. Aust Vet J 2011; 89: 151-58.
18. 18. Kırmızıbayrak T, Aksoy AR, Tilki M, Saatçi M. An investigation on morphological characteristics of Turkish native horses in Kars region. Kafkas Univ Vet Fak Derg 2004; 10: 69-72.
19. 19. Köseman A, Özbeyaz C. Some phenotypic and genetic parameters of racing performance in Arabian horses. Ankara Univ Vet Fak 2009; 56: 219-24.
20. 20. McManus P, Graham R. Horse racing and gambling: comparison attitudes and preferences of racetrack patrons and residents of Sydney, Australia. Leisure Studies 2012; DOI:10.1080/02614367.2012.748088.
21. 21. Paksoy Y, Ünal N. The factors affecting horse racing performance. Lalahan Hay Arast Enst Derg 2010; 50: 91-101.
22. 22. Revenue Administration of Turkey. Tax statistics between 2006 and 2010. http://www.gib.gov.tr/index.php?id=253; Accessed: 12.05.2013
23. 23. Smyth GB, Dagley K, Tainsh J. Insights into the economic consequences of the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in Australia. Aust Vet J 2011; 89: 151-8.
24. 24. Timoney PJ. The increasing significance of international trade in equids and its influence on the spread of infectious diseases. Ann New York Acd Sci 2006; DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2000.tb05274.x
25. 25. Turkish Jockey Club. History. http://www.tjk.org/TR/Kurumsal/Static/Page/Tarihce. Accessed: 11.04.2012.
26. 26. Turkish Jockey Club. Statistics. http://www.tjk.org/ ; Accessed: 10.03.2013
27. 27. Turkish Official Newspaper. Law about horse racing. No. 8458, dated 10.07.1953. http://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/default.aspx; Accessed: 11.12.2011
28. 28. Turkey Statistical Institute. Turkey’s statistical yearbook. First Edition. Ankara: Turkish Statistical Institute Press, 2011; pp.366-69.
29. 29. Turkish Official Newspaper. Regulation for online games of chance No. 26108. http://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/default.aspx; Accessed: 09.03.2012
30. 30. Turner M, Balendra G, McCrory P. Payments to injured professional jockeys in British horse racing (1996 -2006). Br J Sports Med 2008; 42: 763-66.
31. 31. Qiu Y, Fu B, Wang J, Chen L, Meng Q, Zhang Y. Spatial prediction of soil moisture content using multiple-linear regressions in a gully catchment of the Loess Plateau, China. J Arid Environ 2010; 74: 208-20.
32. 32. World Bank. Data, indicators. GNI per capita, atlas method. http://www.worldbank.org/; Accessed: 15.08.2012
33. 33. Yilmaz O, Wilson RT. The domestic livestock resources of Turkey: occurrence and control of diseases of horses, donkeys and mules. J Equine Vet Sci 2013; 33: 1021-30.