Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend tests on measured monthly flows series of some streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 1, 78 - 86, 30.04.2018

Öz

Low, medium and high values of a variable are a
significant issue in hydrological, meteorological and climatological events;
moreover, these values are used to decide various design parameters based on
scientific aspects and real applications around the world. In this context, a
new trend method recently proposed by Şen was used for monthly streamflow data
recorded at two different stations (2174- Murat River (Akkonak) and 2634-Garzan
Creek (Kozluk)) in Euphrates-Tigris Basin. The Mann-Kendall trend test was also
applied to the same data. It was seen that the stations had statistically
significant decreasing trend according to the Mann-Kendall and Şen trend test
at 95% confidence level; moreover, the proposed method provided an important
advantage in terms of graphically evaluation of low, medium and high values of
streamflow data.

Kaynakça

  • [1] Yevjevich, V. 1972. Stochastic processes in hydrology. Water Resources Publications, 276p. Fort Collins.
  • [2] Kottegoda, N.T. 1980. Stochastic water resources technology. The MacMillan Press. ISBN: 978-1-349-03469-7 (Print) 978-1-349-03467-3 (Online).
  • [3] Zhang, X., Harvey, K.D., Hogg, W.D. and Yuzyk, T.R. 2001. Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resources Research, 37(4), 987-998.
  • [4] Onoz, B. and Bayazit, M. 2003. The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turkish Journal of Engineering & Environmental Sciences, 27, 247-251.
  • [5] Kahya, E. and Kalayci, S. 2004. Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 289(1-4), 128-144.
  • [6] Topaloglu, F. 2006. Regional trend detection of Turkish river flows. Nordic Hydrology, 37(2), 165-182.
  • [7] IPCC 2007. Climate change 2007: Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Summary for Policymakers, 23.
  • [8] Yenigun, K., Gumus, V. and Bulut, H. 2008. Trends in streamflow of the Euphrates basin, Turkey. Water Management, 161(4), 189-198.
  • [9] Irvem, A., Topaloglu F. and Ozfidaner, M. 2012. Trends in Turkish monthly mean streamflow. Journal of Food, Agriculture & Environment, 10(3-4), 900-904.
  • [10] Haktanir, T. and Çitakoğlu H., 2014. Trend, Independence, Stationarity, and Homogeneity Tests On Maximum Rainfall Series of Standard Durations Recorded in Turkey. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(9), http://dx.doi. org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000973.
  • [11] Şen, Z. 2014. Trend identification simulation and application. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635-642.
  • [12] Sang, Y-F., Wang, Z. and Liu, C. 2014. Comparison of the MK test and EMD method for trend identification in hydrological time series. Journal of Hydrology, 510, 293-298.
  • [13] Kisi, O. and Ay, M. 2014. Comparison of Mann-Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 513, 362-375.
  • [14] Ay, M. and Kisi, O. 2015a. Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120(3), 617-629.
  • [15] Ay, M. and Kisi, O. 2015b. Trend analysis of streamflow and sediment. VIII. National Hydrology Congress, ISBN: 978-975-7113-47-8, Pages: 289-299, October 08-10, Harran University, Şanlıurfa.
  • [16] Ay, M. and Özyıldırım, S. 2017a. Trend analysis of monthly total rainfall and monthly mean air temperature variables of Yozgat in Turkey. Çukurova University Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, 32(2), 65-75, ISSN 1019-1011.
  • [17] Ay, M. ve Kişi, Ö. 2017b. Trend Analysis of Streamflow at Some Gauging Stations Over the Kizilirmak River. Turkish Chamber Civil Engineers, Technical Journal, ACE 2014 Confrence Special Issue, 28(2), 7779-7794. DOI: 10.18400/tekderg.304034, ISSN: 1300-3453).
  • [18] Burn, D.H. and Elnur, M.A.H. 2002. Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. Journal of Hydrology, 255, 107-122.
  • [19] Kalayci, S. and Kahya, E. 2003. Streamflow trends in Sakarya Basin. ARI, Bulletin of the Istanbul Technical University, 54(1), 79-80.
  • [20] Cigizoglu, H.K., Bayazit, M. and Onoz, B. 2005. Trends in the maximum, mean and low flows of Turkish rivers. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 6(3), 280-290.
  • [21] Eris, E. and Agiralioglu, N. 2012. Homogeneity and trend analysis of hydrometeorological data of the Eastern Black Sea Region, Turkey. Journal of Water Research and Protection, 4, 99-105.
  • [22] Şen, Z. 2012. Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046.
  • [23] Şen, Z. 2013. Square Diagonal Trend Test Procedure. 6th International Perspective on Water Resources & The Environment Congress. January 07-09, (in CD), Izmir, Turkey.
  • [24] Ay, M. and Kisi, O. 2013. Investigation rainfall trends in some province in Turkey. 3rd Climate Change Congress in Turkey, 978-605-62559-0-8, 109-117, June 03-05, Istanbul Technical University (ITU).
  • [25] Kisi, O. and Ay, M. 2013b. Investigation of river streamflow by a new trend method. Flood and Landslide Symposium. 978-605-01-0520-9, 423-431, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon.
  • [26] Kisi, O. and Ay, M. 2013a. Investigation of Trend Analysis of Monthly Total Precipitation of Some Provinces in Turkey. 7th National Hydrology Congress, 978-9944-452-72-4, Page: 513-521, Isparta.
  • [27] Ay, M. 2016. Trend analysis of discharge at East Mediterranean River Basin in Turkey. 1st International Black Sea Congress on Environmental Sciences, Abstract Book, 12p, Giresun University, 31 August-03 September, Giresun, Turkey.
  • [28] Kendall, M.G. 1975. Rank correlation methods. Oxford University Press, New York.
  • [29] Mann, H.B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13(3), 245-259.
  • [30] Helsel, D.R. and Hirsch, R.M. 2002. Statistical methods in water resources. Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations of the United States Geological Survey Book 4, Chapter A3, Hydrologic Analysis and Interpretation.
  • [31] Yue, S., Pilon, P. and Caradias, G. 2002. Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology, 259, 254-271.
  • [32] Şen, Z. 2015. Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI 10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x.
  • [33] Ay, M. and Kisi, O. 2014. Trend analysis of streamflow in the Kızılırmak River, Turkey. 11th International Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering (ACE), Abstract Book, 216 pp, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey. October 21-25, İstanbul, Turkey.
  • [34] von Storch, H. 1995. Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques. H.V. Storch and A. Navarra (Editors.), Springer, Berlin, 11-26.
  • [35] Bayazit, M. and Onoz, B. 2007. To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(4), 611-624.
  • [36] Türkeş, M., 1996. Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1057-1076.
  • [37] General Directorate of Meteorology (GDM), 2015. Research Department, Symposium Articles in 2015 of Climatology Branch Directorate, 118 pp, Ankara.
  • [38] Yenigun, K. and Ecer, R., 2013. Overlay mapping trend analysis technique and its application in Euphrates Basin, Turkey. Meteorological Applications, 20, 427–438.
  • [39] Sen, O.L. Gokturk, O.M., Bozkurt, D., 2015. Changing climate: a great challenge for Turkey. Journal Black Sea/Mediterranean Environment Special Issue: 97-103.

Mann-Kendall ve Sen'in yeni eğilim testlerinin Fırat-Dicle Havzasındaki bazı akarsuların aylık akış serileri ile karşılaştırılması

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 1, 78 - 86, 30.04.2018

Öz

Bir
değişkenin düşük, orta ve yüksek değerleri hidrolojik, meteorolojik ve iklimsel
olaylarda önemli bir konudur. Ayrıca, bu değerler dünyanın çeşitli yerlerindeki
bilimsel yönlere ve gerçek uygulamalara dayanan çeşitli tasarım parametrelerini
belirlemek için kullanılır. Bu bağlamda, Fırat-Dicle Havzasında iki farklı
istasyonda (2174-Murat Nehri (Akkonak) ve 2634-Garzan Çayı (Kozluk)) kaydedilen
aylık akarsu verileri için yakın zamanda Şen tarafından önerilen yeni bir eğilim
yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Aynı verilere Mann-Kendall eğilim testi de uygulandı.
İstasyonların, Mann-Kendall ve Şen eğilim testine göre istatistiksel olarak %95
güven düzeyinde önemli düşüş eğilimi gösterdİ. 
Önerilen yöntem, akış akışı verisinin düşük, orta ve yüksek değerlerinin
grafik olarak değerlendirilmesi açısından önemli bir avantaj sağladı.

Kaynakça

  • [1] Yevjevich, V. 1972. Stochastic processes in hydrology. Water Resources Publications, 276p. Fort Collins.
  • [2] Kottegoda, N.T. 1980. Stochastic water resources technology. The MacMillan Press. ISBN: 978-1-349-03469-7 (Print) 978-1-349-03467-3 (Online).
  • [3] Zhang, X., Harvey, K.D., Hogg, W.D. and Yuzyk, T.R. 2001. Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resources Research, 37(4), 987-998.
  • [4] Onoz, B. and Bayazit, M. 2003. The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turkish Journal of Engineering & Environmental Sciences, 27, 247-251.
  • [5] Kahya, E. and Kalayci, S. 2004. Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 289(1-4), 128-144.
  • [6] Topaloglu, F. 2006. Regional trend detection of Turkish river flows. Nordic Hydrology, 37(2), 165-182.
  • [7] IPCC 2007. Climate change 2007: Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Summary for Policymakers, 23.
  • [8] Yenigun, K., Gumus, V. and Bulut, H. 2008. Trends in streamflow of the Euphrates basin, Turkey. Water Management, 161(4), 189-198.
  • [9] Irvem, A., Topaloglu F. and Ozfidaner, M. 2012. Trends in Turkish monthly mean streamflow. Journal of Food, Agriculture & Environment, 10(3-4), 900-904.
  • [10] Haktanir, T. and Çitakoğlu H., 2014. Trend, Independence, Stationarity, and Homogeneity Tests On Maximum Rainfall Series of Standard Durations Recorded in Turkey. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(9), http://dx.doi. org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000973.
  • [11] Şen, Z. 2014. Trend identification simulation and application. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635-642.
  • [12] Sang, Y-F., Wang, Z. and Liu, C. 2014. Comparison of the MK test and EMD method for trend identification in hydrological time series. Journal of Hydrology, 510, 293-298.
  • [13] Kisi, O. and Ay, M. 2014. Comparison of Mann-Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 513, 362-375.
  • [14] Ay, M. and Kisi, O. 2015a. Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120(3), 617-629.
  • [15] Ay, M. and Kisi, O. 2015b. Trend analysis of streamflow and sediment. VIII. National Hydrology Congress, ISBN: 978-975-7113-47-8, Pages: 289-299, October 08-10, Harran University, Şanlıurfa.
  • [16] Ay, M. and Özyıldırım, S. 2017a. Trend analysis of monthly total rainfall and monthly mean air temperature variables of Yozgat in Turkey. Çukurova University Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, 32(2), 65-75, ISSN 1019-1011.
  • [17] Ay, M. ve Kişi, Ö. 2017b. Trend Analysis of Streamflow at Some Gauging Stations Over the Kizilirmak River. Turkish Chamber Civil Engineers, Technical Journal, ACE 2014 Confrence Special Issue, 28(2), 7779-7794. DOI: 10.18400/tekderg.304034, ISSN: 1300-3453).
  • [18] Burn, D.H. and Elnur, M.A.H. 2002. Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. Journal of Hydrology, 255, 107-122.
  • [19] Kalayci, S. and Kahya, E. 2003. Streamflow trends in Sakarya Basin. ARI, Bulletin of the Istanbul Technical University, 54(1), 79-80.
  • [20] Cigizoglu, H.K., Bayazit, M. and Onoz, B. 2005. Trends in the maximum, mean and low flows of Turkish rivers. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 6(3), 280-290.
  • [21] Eris, E. and Agiralioglu, N. 2012. Homogeneity and trend analysis of hydrometeorological data of the Eastern Black Sea Region, Turkey. Journal of Water Research and Protection, 4, 99-105.
  • [22] Şen, Z. 2012. Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046.
  • [23] Şen, Z. 2013. Square Diagonal Trend Test Procedure. 6th International Perspective on Water Resources & The Environment Congress. January 07-09, (in CD), Izmir, Turkey.
  • [24] Ay, M. and Kisi, O. 2013. Investigation rainfall trends in some province in Turkey. 3rd Climate Change Congress in Turkey, 978-605-62559-0-8, 109-117, June 03-05, Istanbul Technical University (ITU).
  • [25] Kisi, O. and Ay, M. 2013b. Investigation of river streamflow by a new trend method. Flood and Landslide Symposium. 978-605-01-0520-9, 423-431, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon.
  • [26] Kisi, O. and Ay, M. 2013a. Investigation of Trend Analysis of Monthly Total Precipitation of Some Provinces in Turkey. 7th National Hydrology Congress, 978-9944-452-72-4, Page: 513-521, Isparta.
  • [27] Ay, M. 2016. Trend analysis of discharge at East Mediterranean River Basin in Turkey. 1st International Black Sea Congress on Environmental Sciences, Abstract Book, 12p, Giresun University, 31 August-03 September, Giresun, Turkey.
  • [28] Kendall, M.G. 1975. Rank correlation methods. Oxford University Press, New York.
  • [29] Mann, H.B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13(3), 245-259.
  • [30] Helsel, D.R. and Hirsch, R.M. 2002. Statistical methods in water resources. Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations of the United States Geological Survey Book 4, Chapter A3, Hydrologic Analysis and Interpretation.
  • [31] Yue, S., Pilon, P. and Caradias, G. 2002. Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology, 259, 254-271.
  • [32] Şen, Z. 2015. Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI 10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x.
  • [33] Ay, M. and Kisi, O. 2014. Trend analysis of streamflow in the Kızılırmak River, Turkey. 11th International Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering (ACE), Abstract Book, 216 pp, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey. October 21-25, İstanbul, Turkey.
  • [34] von Storch, H. 1995. Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques. H.V. Storch and A. Navarra (Editors.), Springer, Berlin, 11-26.
  • [35] Bayazit, M. and Onoz, B. 2007. To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(4), 611-624.
  • [36] Türkeş, M., 1996. Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1057-1076.
  • [37] General Directorate of Meteorology (GDM), 2015. Research Department, Symposium Articles in 2015 of Climatology Branch Directorate, 118 pp, Ankara.
  • [38] Yenigun, K. and Ecer, R., 2013. Overlay mapping trend analysis technique and its application in Euphrates Basin, Turkey. Meteorological Applications, 20, 427–438.
  • [39] Sen, O.L. Gokturk, O.M., Bozkurt, D., 2015. Changing climate: a great challenge for Turkey. Journal Black Sea/Mediterranean Environment Special Issue: 97-103.
Toplam 39 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Mühendislik
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

MURAT Ay

Ömer Faruk Karaca

Adil Koray Yıldız

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Nisan 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 34 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Ay, M., Karaca, Ö. F., & Yıldız, A. K. (2018). Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend tests on measured monthly flows series of some streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 34(1), 78-86.
AMA Ay M, Karaca ÖF, Yıldız AK. Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend tests on measured monthly flows series of some streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi. Nisan 2018;34(1):78-86.
Chicago Ay, MURAT, Ömer Faruk Karaca, ve Adil Koray Yıldız. “Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Tests on Measured Monthly Flows Series of Some Streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin”. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 34, sy. 1 (Nisan 2018): 78-86.
EndNote Ay M, Karaca ÖF, Yıldız AK (01 Nisan 2018) Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend tests on measured monthly flows series of some streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 34 1 78–86.
IEEE M. Ay, Ö. F. Karaca, ve A. K. Yıldız, “Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend tests on measured monthly flows series of some streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin”, Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 34, sy. 1, ss. 78–86, 2018.
ISNAD Ay, MURAT vd. “Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Tests on Measured Monthly Flows Series of Some Streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin”. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 34/1 (Nisan 2018), 78-86.
JAMA Ay M, Karaca ÖF, Yıldız AK. Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend tests on measured monthly flows series of some streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi. 2018;34:78–86.
MLA Ay, MURAT vd. “Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Tests on Measured Monthly Flows Series of Some Streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin”. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 34, sy. 1, 2018, ss. 78-86.
Vancouver Ay M, Karaca ÖF, Yıldız AK. Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend tests on measured monthly flows series of some streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi. 2018;34(1):78-86.

✯ Etik kurul izni gerektiren, tüm bilim dallarında yapılan araştırmalar için etik kurul onayı alınmış olmalı, bu onay makalede belirtilmeli ve belgelendirilmelidir.
✯ Etik kurul izni gerektiren araştırmalarda, izinle ilgili bilgilere (kurul adı, tarih ve sayı no) yöntem bölümünde, ayrıca makalenin ilk/son sayfalarından birinde; olgu sunumlarında, bilgilendirilmiş gönüllü olur/onam formunun imzalatıldığına dair bilgiye makalede yer verilmelidir.
✯ Dergi web sayfasında, makalelerde Araştırma ve Yayın Etiğine uyulduğuna dair ifadeye yer verilmelidir.
✯ Dergi web sayfasında, hakem, yazar ve editör için ayrı başlıklar altında etik kurallarla ilgili bilgi verilmelidir.
✯ Dergide ve/veya web sayfasında, ulusal ve uluslararası standartlara atıf yaparak, dergide ve/veya web sayfasında etik ilkeler ayrı başlık altında belirtilmelidir. Örneğin; dergilere gönderilen bilimsel yazılarda, ICMJE (International Committee of Medical Journal Editors) tavsiyeleri ile COPE (Committee on Publication Ethics)’un Editör ve Yazarlar için Uluslararası Standartları dikkate alınmalıdır.
✯ Kullanılan fikir ve sanat eserleri için telif hakları düzenlemelerine riayet edilmesi gerekmektedir.