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LATİN AMERİKA ÜLKELERİNDE BÜTÇE AÇIĞI VE ENFLASYON ARASINDAKİ EŞ BÜTÜNLEŞME İLİŞKİSİNİN ANALİZİ

Yıl 2013, Sayı: 41, 89 - 109, 21.05.2015

Bülent Doğru Suat Şentürk

Öz

Bu çalışma bütçe açığının uzun dönemde enflasyona neden olup-olmadığını analiz etmektedir. İktisat teorisine göre gelişmekte olan ülkelerde meydana gelen bütçe açıkları enflasyonist sonuçlar doğurabilmektedir. Eğer bütçe açıkları para basma (monetizasyon) yoluyla kapatılmışsa, artan para arzının enflasyona yol açacağı kabul edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada enflasyon ve bütçe açığı arasındaki ilişki 1980-2011 arası dönemde az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan 19 Latin Amerika ve Karayip ülkesi için panel eş bütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modeli ile test edilmektedir. Çalışmanın ampirik sonuçlarına göre, kısa dönemde bütçe açıkları enflasyonun nedeni olmasa da uzun dönemde aralarında pozitif bir ilişki mevcuttur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon Bütçe Açığı Panel Veri Eş Bütünleşme Analizi

Kaynakça

  • ABIZADEH, Sohrab and Mahmood YOUSEFI; (1998), “Deficits and Inflation: An Open Economy Model of the United States”, Applied Economics, 30, pp.1307-1316.
  • AGHEVLI, Bijan B. and Mohsin S. KHAN; (1978), “Government Deficits and the Inflationary Process in Developing Countries”, IMF Staff Papers, 25(3), pp.383-416.
  • AHKING, Francis W. and Stephen M. MILLER; (1985), “The Relationship Between Government Deficits, Money Growth and Inflation”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 7(4), pp.447-467.
  • ALTINTAŞ, Halil; Hakan ÇETİNTAŞ ve Sami TABAN; (2008), “Türkiye‟de Bütçe Açığı, Parasal Büyüme ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkinin Eko- nometrik Analizi: 1992–2006”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(2), ss.185–208.
  • ASHRA, Sunil; Saumen CHATTOPADHYAY and Kausik CHAUDHURI; (2004), “Deficit, Money and Price: The Indian Experience”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, pp.289–299.
  • BALTAGI, Badi H.; (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edi- tion, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • BARNHART, Scott W. and Ali F. DARRAT; (1988), “Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Causality: Further OECD Evidence”, Journal of Interna- tional Money and Finance, 7(2), pp.231-242.
  • BUITER, William H.; (1985), “A Guide to Public Sector Debt and Deficits”, Economic Policy,1, pp.13-80.
  • BUTT, Babar Z.; Kashif Ur REHMAN and Muhammad AZEEM; (2010), “The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Interest Rate and Exchange Ra- te: The Case of Pakistan”, Transformations in Business and Econo- mics, 9 (2), pp.95- 102.
  • CANNING, David and Peter PEDRONI; (2008), “Infrastructure, Long-run Economic Growth and Causality Tests for Cointegrated Panels”, The Manchester School, 76, pp.504-527.
  • CATAO, Luis A.V. and Marco E. TERRONES; (2005), “Fiscal Deficits and Inflation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(3), pp.529–554.
  • COTTARELLI, Carlo; Mark E. L. GRIFFITHS and Reza MOGHADAM; (1998), “The Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation: A Panel Data Study”, IMF Working Paper, 98/23, pp. 1-29.
  • DOMAÇ, İlker and Eray M. YÜCEL; (2005), “What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?”, Review of World Economics, 141(1), pp.141–164.
  • DORNBUSCH, Rudiger and Stanley FISCHER; (1991), “Moderate Inflation”, WPS 807. World Bank, Office of the Vice President, Development Economics, Washington, D.C., pp. 1-44
  • EASTERLY, William and Klaus SCHMİDT–HEBBEL; (1993), “Fiscal Defi- cits and Macroeconomic Performance in Developing Countries”, The World Bank Research Observer, 8(2), pp.211-237.
  • FISCHER, Stanley; Ratna SAHAY and Carlos A.VEGH; (2002), “Modern Hy- per and High Inflations”, Journal of Economic Literature, 40(3), pp.837–880.
  • FRIEDMAN, Milton; (2009), The Optimum Quantity of Money, Fourth Edi- tion, New Brunswick: New Jersey Transaction Publishers.
  • GRANGER, Clive W.J. and Paul NEWBOLD; (1974), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), pp.111–120
  • HAMBURGER, Michael J. and Burton ZWICK; (1981), “Deficit, Money and Inflation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 7, pp.141-150.
  • HELLER, Peter S; (1980), “Impact of Inflation on Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries”, IMF Staff Papers, 27, pp.712–748.
  • HONDROYIANNIS, George and Evangelia PAPAPETROU; (1997), “Are Budget Deficits Inflationary?”, Applied Economics Letters, 4(8), pp.493-496.
  • IM, Kyung So; M. Hashem PESARAN and Yongcheol SHIN; (2003), "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels." Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), pp.53-74.
  • KARA, Orhan; (2011), “The Effects of the U.S. Budget Deficit and Inflation on Exchange Rate”, Journal of Academy of Buiıness and Economics, (11) 4, pp.80-94.
  • KARRAS, Georgios; (1994), “Macroeconomics Effects of Budget Deficit: Further International Evidence”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 13(2), pp.190–210.
  • KIGUEL, Miguel A. and Nissan LIVIATAN; (1988), “Inflationary Rigidities and Orthodox Stabilization Policies: Lessons from Latin America”, The World Bank Economic Review, 2 (3), pp.273-298.
  • LEVIN, Andrew; Chien- Fu LIN and Chia-Shang James CHU; (2002), Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), pp. 1-24.
  • LIN, Hsin-Yi and Hao-Pang CHU; (2013), “Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary?”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 32, pp.214-233.
  • METİN, Kıvılcım; (1995), “An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 57, pp.513-533.
  • METİN, Kıvılcım; (1998), “The Relationship Between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16(4), pp.412-422.
  • OLADIPO, Olusegun and Temidayo O. AKİNBOBOLA; (2011), “Budget Deficit and Inflation in Nigeria: A Causal Relationship”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 2(1), pp.1-8.
  • ÖZATAY, Fatih; (2011), Parasal İktisat Kuram ve Politika, Birinci Baskı, Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • PEDRONI, Peter; (1999), “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heteroge- neous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Econo- mics and Statistics, 61, pp.653–670.
  • PEDRONI, Peter; (2000), “Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegra- ted Panels”, Advances in Econometrics, 15, pp.93–130.
  • PHILIPS, Peter C.B. and Hyungsik R. MOON; (1999), “Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data”, Econometrica, 67 (5), pp.1057-1111.
  • RAHMAN, Matiur, Muhammed MUSTAFA and Eldon BAILEY; (1996), “US Budget Deficits, Inflation and Exchange Rate: A Cointegration Approach”, Applied Economics Letters, 3, pp.365-368.
  • SAIKKONEN, Pentti; (1991),“Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointeg- ration Regressions”, Econometric Theory, 7, pp.1-21.
  • SARGENT, Thomas. J. and Neil WALLACE; (1981), “Some Unpleasant Mo- netarist Arithmetic”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quar- terly Review, 5(3), pp.1-18.
  • SOLOMON, M. Jason and Walter DE WET; (2004), “The Effect of Budget Deficit on Inflation: The Case of Tanzania”, Sajems NS, 7(1), pp.100- 116.
  • STOCK, James H. and Mark W. WATSON; (1993), “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econo- metrica, 61(4), pp.738-820.
  • TATOĞLU, Ferda Y.; (2012), İleri Panel Veri Analizi, Birinci Baskı, İstanbul: Beta Yayınevi.
  • VUYYURI, Srivyal and S. Vengata SESHALAH; (2004), “Budget Deficit and Other Macroeconomic Variables in India”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(1), pp.37-54. ülke Arjantin Belize Bolivya Brezilya Şili Kolombiya Kostarika
  • Dominik Cumhuriyeti gdp Ekvador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Meksika Nikaragua Panama Paraguay Peru
  • Trinidad ve Tobago gdp Uruguay Arjantin Belize Bolivya Brezilya Şili Kolombiya Kostarika
  • Dominik Cumhuriyeti inf Ekvador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Meksika Nikaragua Panama Paraguay Peru
  • Trinidad ve Tobago inf Uruguay 2003 375.62 1.976 61.904 1699.948 52646.813 272345 6983.599 617.989 28.409 15.047 174.044 2007 2008 1031.609 2.727 2.698 121.727 3239.404

-

Yıl 2013, Sayı: 41, 89 - 109, 21.05.2015

Bülent Doğru Suat Şentürk

Öz

This paper aims to analyze the empirical relationship among budget deficit and inflation for the Latin American and Caribbean Countries over the period 1980-2011, annually. According to economic theory, especially in developing countries fiscal imbalances result in inflation. Therefore, if budget deficit is financed through monetarisation, then rising money supply could lead to inflation in these countries. In this paper, we are analyzing the relationship between budget deficit and inflation for nineteen less developed and developing Latin and Caribbean Countries. We are using panel data cointegration analysis to figure out the relationship between inflation and budget deficit. According to empirical results of the study, in the long-term there is a positive relationship between budget deficits and inflation, while in the short-term budget deficits is not the cause of inflation

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation Budget Deficit Panel Data Cointegration Analysis Latin American

Kaynakça

  • ABIZADEH, Sohrab and Mahmood YOUSEFI; (1998), “Deficits and Inflation: An Open Economy Model of the United States”, Applied Economics, 30, pp.1307-1316.
  • AGHEVLI, Bijan B. and Mohsin S. KHAN; (1978), “Government Deficits and the Inflationary Process in Developing Countries”, IMF Staff Papers, 25(3), pp.383-416.
  • AHKING, Francis W. and Stephen M. MILLER; (1985), “The Relationship Between Government Deficits, Money Growth and Inflation”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 7(4), pp.447-467.
  • ALTINTAŞ, Halil; Hakan ÇETİNTAŞ ve Sami TABAN; (2008), “Türkiye‟de Bütçe Açığı, Parasal Büyüme ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkinin Eko- nometrik Analizi: 1992–2006”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(2), ss.185–208.
  • ASHRA, Sunil; Saumen CHATTOPADHYAY and Kausik CHAUDHURI; (2004), “Deficit, Money and Price: The Indian Experience”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, pp.289–299.
  • BALTAGI, Badi H.; (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edi- tion, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • BARNHART, Scott W. and Ali F. DARRAT; (1988), “Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Causality: Further OECD Evidence”, Journal of Interna- tional Money and Finance, 7(2), pp.231-242.
  • BUITER, William H.; (1985), “A Guide to Public Sector Debt and Deficits”, Economic Policy,1, pp.13-80.
  • BUTT, Babar Z.; Kashif Ur REHMAN and Muhammad AZEEM; (2010), “The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Interest Rate and Exchange Ra- te: The Case of Pakistan”, Transformations in Business and Econo- mics, 9 (2), pp.95- 102.
  • CANNING, David and Peter PEDRONI; (2008), “Infrastructure, Long-run Economic Growth and Causality Tests for Cointegrated Panels”, The Manchester School, 76, pp.504-527.
  • CATAO, Luis A.V. and Marco E. TERRONES; (2005), “Fiscal Deficits and Inflation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(3), pp.529–554.
  • COTTARELLI, Carlo; Mark E. L. GRIFFITHS and Reza MOGHADAM; (1998), “The Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation: A Panel Data Study”, IMF Working Paper, 98/23, pp. 1-29.
  • DOMAÇ, İlker and Eray M. YÜCEL; (2005), “What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?”, Review of World Economics, 141(1), pp.141–164.
  • DORNBUSCH, Rudiger and Stanley FISCHER; (1991), “Moderate Inflation”, WPS 807. World Bank, Office of the Vice President, Development Economics, Washington, D.C., pp. 1-44
  • EASTERLY, William and Klaus SCHMİDT–HEBBEL; (1993), “Fiscal Defi- cits and Macroeconomic Performance in Developing Countries”, The World Bank Research Observer, 8(2), pp.211-237.
  • FISCHER, Stanley; Ratna SAHAY and Carlos A.VEGH; (2002), “Modern Hy- per and High Inflations”, Journal of Economic Literature, 40(3), pp.837–880.
  • FRIEDMAN, Milton; (2009), The Optimum Quantity of Money, Fourth Edi- tion, New Brunswick: New Jersey Transaction Publishers.
  • GRANGER, Clive W.J. and Paul NEWBOLD; (1974), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), pp.111–120
  • HAMBURGER, Michael J. and Burton ZWICK; (1981), “Deficit, Money and Inflation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 7, pp.141-150.
  • HELLER, Peter S; (1980), “Impact of Inflation on Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries”, IMF Staff Papers, 27, pp.712–748.
  • HONDROYIANNIS, George and Evangelia PAPAPETROU; (1997), “Are Budget Deficits Inflationary?”, Applied Economics Letters, 4(8), pp.493-496.
  • IM, Kyung So; M. Hashem PESARAN and Yongcheol SHIN; (2003), "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels." Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), pp.53-74.
  • KARA, Orhan; (2011), “The Effects of the U.S. Budget Deficit and Inflation on Exchange Rate”, Journal of Academy of Buiıness and Economics, (11) 4, pp.80-94.
  • KARRAS, Georgios; (1994), “Macroeconomics Effects of Budget Deficit: Further International Evidence”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 13(2), pp.190–210.
  • KIGUEL, Miguel A. and Nissan LIVIATAN; (1988), “Inflationary Rigidities and Orthodox Stabilization Policies: Lessons from Latin America”, The World Bank Economic Review, 2 (3), pp.273-298.
  • LEVIN, Andrew; Chien- Fu LIN and Chia-Shang James CHU; (2002), Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), pp. 1-24.
  • LIN, Hsin-Yi and Hao-Pang CHU; (2013), “Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary?”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 32, pp.214-233.
  • METİN, Kıvılcım; (1995), “An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 57, pp.513-533.
  • METİN, Kıvılcım; (1998), “The Relationship Between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16(4), pp.412-422.
  • OLADIPO, Olusegun and Temidayo O. AKİNBOBOLA; (2011), “Budget Deficit and Inflation in Nigeria: A Causal Relationship”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 2(1), pp.1-8.
  • ÖZATAY, Fatih; (2011), Parasal İktisat Kuram ve Politika, Birinci Baskı, Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • PEDRONI, Peter; (1999), “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heteroge- neous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Econo- mics and Statistics, 61, pp.653–670.
  • PEDRONI, Peter; (2000), “Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegra- ted Panels”, Advances in Econometrics, 15, pp.93–130.
  • PHILIPS, Peter C.B. and Hyungsik R. MOON; (1999), “Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data”, Econometrica, 67 (5), pp.1057-1111.
  • RAHMAN, Matiur, Muhammed MUSTAFA and Eldon BAILEY; (1996), “US Budget Deficits, Inflation and Exchange Rate: A Cointegration Approach”, Applied Economics Letters, 3, pp.365-368.
  • SAIKKONEN, Pentti; (1991),“Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointeg- ration Regressions”, Econometric Theory, 7, pp.1-21.
  • SARGENT, Thomas. J. and Neil WALLACE; (1981), “Some Unpleasant Mo- netarist Arithmetic”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quar- terly Review, 5(3), pp.1-18.
  • SOLOMON, M. Jason and Walter DE WET; (2004), “The Effect of Budget Deficit on Inflation: The Case of Tanzania”, Sajems NS, 7(1), pp.100- 116.
  • STOCK, James H. and Mark W. WATSON; (1993), “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econo- metrica, 61(4), pp.738-820.
  • TATOĞLU, Ferda Y.; (2012), İleri Panel Veri Analizi, Birinci Baskı, İstanbul: Beta Yayınevi.
  • VUYYURI, Srivyal and S. Vengata SESHALAH; (2004), “Budget Deficit and Other Macroeconomic Variables in India”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(1), pp.37-54. ülke Arjantin Belize Bolivya Brezilya Şili Kolombiya Kostarika
  • Dominik Cumhuriyeti gdp Ekvador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Meksika Nikaragua Panama Paraguay Peru
  • Trinidad ve Tobago gdp Uruguay Arjantin Belize Bolivya Brezilya Şili Kolombiya Kostarika
  • Dominik Cumhuriyeti inf Ekvador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Meksika Nikaragua Panama Paraguay Peru
  • Trinidad ve Tobago inf Uruguay 2003 375.62 1.976 61.904 1699.948 52646.813 272345 6983.599 617.989 28.409 15.047 174.044 2007 2008 1031.609 2.727 2.698 121.727 3239.404
Toplam 45 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Bülent Doğru Bu kişi benim

Suat Şentürk Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 21 Mayıs 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2013 Sayı: 41

Kaynak Göster

APA Doğru, B., & Şentürk, S. (2015). LATİN AMERİKA ÜLKELERİNDE BÜTÇE AÇIĞI VE ENFLASYON ARASINDAKİ EŞ BÜTÜNLEŞME İLİŞKİSİNİN ANALİZİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(41), 89-109.

ERÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 2025 | iibfdergi@erciyes.edu.tr

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