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Yıl 2015, Sayı: 45, 143 - 177, 20.07.2015
https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.85938

Öz

The main purpose of the study is to investigate the main factors that determine the tourism demand to Turkey. For this aim, we employed panel data methods on turizm demand data of firstfive countries which have the highest share with respect to the number of tourists coming to Turkey. The main determinants of tourism demand cited in the literature cover macroeconomic variables, such as gdp, price level, transportation and other costs, exchange rate and etc. In this study, after having carried out the pre-estimation tests (cross-sectional dependence, stationarity and co-integration tests) on the panel data, the estimation results of the econometric model to determine the tourism demand to Turkey is discussed. We find, as expected from the literature, that transportation costs and inflation have negative effects on tourism demand, whereas exchange rate has a positive effect on tourism demand. However, per capita GDP of tourist sending country has a negative and strong effect on tourism demand. This is in contrast to findings in the literature and can be considered as an indicator of a significant problem in the tourism sector in Turkey

Kaynakça

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Uluslararası Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Ekonomik Faktörler: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2015, Sayı: 45, 143 - 177, 20.07.2015
https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.85938

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1996(1)-2013(4) döneminde Türkiye’ye yönelik uluslararası turizm talebini etkileyen ekonomik faktörleri araştırmaktır. Bu kapsamda, Türkiye’ye gelen turist sayısı itibariyle en yüksek paya sahip ilk beş ülke için bir panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Literatürde turizm talebinin belirleyicileri içinde en çok yer verilen makroekonomik değişkenler milli gelir, fiyatlar, taşıma maliyetleri ve döviz kurlarıdır. Bu çalışmada da literatürde yer alan bu temel değişkenler esas alınmıştır. Değişkenlere ait ön-testler (yatay-kesit bağımlılığı, durağanlık ve uzun dönem ilişkinin olup olmadığı) yapılmış, kurulan ekonometrik model tahmin edilmiş ve Türkiye’ye yönelik turizm talebinin belirleyicileri tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Turizm fiyatları ve seyahat maliyetleri ile turizm talebi arasında beklendiği gibi negatif ve güçlü, döviz kurları ile turizm talebi arasında ise pozitif ve güçlü ilişki bulunmuştur. Bu bulgular, literature ile uyumludur. Türkiye’ye turist gönderen ülkelerin milli geliri ile Türkiye’ye yönelik turizm talebi arasında ise negatif ve güçlü ilişki bulunmuştur. Literatür ile farklı olan bu durum, Türkiye turizm sektörü için önemli bir soruna işaret etmektedir.

Kaynakça

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  • AKTAŞ, Cengiz; (2005), “Türkiye’ nin Turizm Gelirini Etkileyen Değişkenler İçin En Uygun Regresyon Denkleminin Belirlenmesi”, Doğuş Üniversi- tesi Dergisi, 6(2), ss.163-174.
  • ALLEN, David; Ghialy YAP and Riaz SHAREEF; (2009), “Modelling Interstate Tourism Demand in Australia: A Cointegration Approach”, Mathemat- ics and Computers in Simulation, 79, pp.2733-2740.
  • ASLAN, Alper; (2008), “Türkiye' de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Turizm ilişkisi üzerine Ekonometrik Analiz”, Munich Personal Repec Archive MPRA, MPRA Paper No: 10611, İnternet Adresi: http://mpra.ub.uni- muenchen.de/10611/, Erişim Tarihi: 03.11.2014.
  • BADILLO, Rosa; Carmelo REVERTE and Elena RUBIO; (2011), “The Fisher Effect in the EU Revisited: New Evidence Using Panel Cointegration Es- timation with Global Stochastic Trends” Applied Economics Letters, 18(3), pp.1247-1251.
  • BAHAR, Ozan ve Kurtuluş BOZKURT; (2010), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi”, Ana- tolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21(2), ss.255-265.
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  • CHO, Vincent; (2010), “A Study of the Non-economic Determinants in Tourism Demand”, International Journal Of Tourism Research, 12, pp.307- 320.
  • CHU, Fong-Lin; (2009), “Forecasting Tourism Demand with ARMA-Based Methods”, Tourism Management, 30, pp.740-751.
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  • PEDRONI, Peter; (2000), “Fully-Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels”, in Badi H. BALTAGI (Ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, 15, Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp.93- 130.
  • PEDRONI, Peter; (2001), “Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Pan- els”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4), pp.727-731.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem; (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk / research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe0435.pdf, Date of Access: 16.02.2015. Cambridge, Internet Address:
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem; (2007), “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-section Dependence,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), pp. 265-312.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem; Aman ULLAH and Takashi YAMAGATA; (2008), “A Bias-adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-section Independence”, Econo- metrics Journal, 11, pp. 105-127.
  • SCHIFF, Aaron and Susanne BECKEN; (2011), “Demand Elasticity Estimates for New Zealand Tourism”, Tourism Management, 32, pp.564-575.
  • SEDDIGHI, H.R. and DF SHEARING; (1997), “The Demand for Tourism in North East England with Special Reference to Northumbria: An Empiri- cal Analysis”, Tourism Management, 18(8), pp. 499-511.
  • SERWA, Dobromił; (2013), “Identifying Multiple Regimes in the Model of Credit to Households”, International Review of Economics and Fi- nance, 27, pp. 198-208.
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  • SMITH, Vanessa; Tae-Hwan KIM; Stephen LEYBOURNE and Paul NEWBOLD; (2004), “More Powerful Panel Data Unit Root Tests with an Application to Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19, pp.147-170.
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Toplam 98 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ahmet Aydın Bu kişi benim

Burak Darıcı Bu kişi benim

Hacı Taşçı Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 20 Temmuz 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015 Sayı: 45

Kaynak Göster

APA Aydın, A., Darıcı, B., & Taşçı, H. (2015). Uluslararası Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Ekonomik Faktörler: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(45), 143-177. https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.85938

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Rusya’nın Türkiye’ye Yönelik Turizm Talebi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı (2002-2016)
Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
Musa BAYIR
https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.347671



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