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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DOMESTIC SAVINGS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Yıl 2015, Sayı: 46, 119 - 151, 17.11.2015

Öz

The domestic savings in a country constitute one of the most important sources of funding the developments. The decline observed in domestic savings rates in Turkey, in recent years and the current account deficit as well as the negative impact on the economy due to the current account deficit made the decline in the domestic savings to come up again. In this context, the aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between domestic savings and economic growth in the scale of Turkey. For this purpose, the relationship between domestic savings and economic growth was analyzed after reviewing the theoretical and empirical literature by using the data from the period 1960-2012 for Turkish economy. The findings of the study supports the hypothesis of lifetime income savings, which states that the savings would increase as a result of the rise of economic growth and thus increase in revenue. In this context, the policy makers should focus on policies to provide sustainable economic growth in order to increase the domestic savings. 

Kaynakça

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Yurtiçi Tasarruflar ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2015, Sayı: 46, 119 - 151, 17.11.2015

Öz

Bir ülkedeki yurtiçi tasarruflar, kalkınmanın en önemli finansman kaynaklarından biridir. Türkiye’de, son yıllarda yurtiçi tasarruf oranlarındaki gözlemlenen düşüş ve bu düşüşün tasarruf-yatırım açığı ve cari açık yoluyla ekonomi üzerindeki olumsuz etkisi, yurtiçi tasarrufların tekrar gündeme gelmesine neden olmuştur. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı, yurtiçi tasarruf ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye kapsamında araştırmaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, yurtiçi tasarruf ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi teorik ve ampirik literatür incelendikten sonra, bu ilişki Türkiye ekonomisine ait 1960-2012 dönemi verileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları, ekonomik büyümenin yükselmesi dolayısıyla, gelirin artması sonucu tasarrufların artacağını belirten yaşam boyu gelir hipotezini desteklemektedir. Bu doğrultuda politika yapıcılar, yurtiçi tasarrufları artırabilmek için sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümenin sağlanmasına yönelik politikalara odaklanmalıdırlar. 

Kaynakça

  • ABDİOĞLU, Zehra ve Metin BERBER; (2007), “Türkiye’de Yurtiçi Tasarruf ve Belirleyicileri”, The Second Business and Economy Internatio- nal Workshop, June 28-29, Giresun, Bildiriler, Özetler ve Pratik Bilgiler Kitabı, ss. 228-242.
  • Abu, NURUDEEN; (2010), “Saving-Economic Growth Nexus in Nijeria, 1970- 2007: Granger Causality and Co-integration Analysis”, Review of Economic & Business Studies, 3 (1), pp. 93-104.
  • ABUAL-FOUL, Bassam; (2010), “The Causal Relation between Savings and Economic Growth: Some Evidence from MENA Countries”, The 30th MEEA Meeting, January 2010, Atlanta, Internet Address: http://www.luc.edu/orgs/meea/volume12/PDFS/AbuAlFoul_The%20 Causal%20Relation%20between%20Savings%20and%20Economic %20Growth.pdf, Date of Access 12.06.2013.
  • ADEBIYI, Mike A.; (2005), “Saving-Growth Relationship in Nigeria: an Empi- rical Evidence”, African Review of Money Finance and Banking, pp. 159-178.
  • AGHION, Philippe and Peter W. HOWITT; (1998), Endogenous Growth The- ory, Cambridge: The MIT Press.
  • AGRAWAL, Pradeep and Pravakar SAHOO; (2009), “Saving and Growth in Bangladesh”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 42(2), pp. 89-110.
  • AGRAWAL, Pradeep; (2001), “The Relation between Savings and Growth Cointegration and Causality Evidence from Asia”, Applied Econo- mics, 33, pp. 499-513.
  • ALGUACIL, María Teresa; Ana Maria CUADROS and Vicente ORTS; (2004), “Does Saving Really Matter for Growth? Mexico (1970-2000)”, Jo- urnal of International Development, 16(2), pp. 281-290.
  • ALGUACIL, María Teresa; Ana Maria CUADROS and Vicente ORTS; (2003), “Net Foreign Resource Inflows, Saving and Growth: Spain (1970- 1999)”, European Trade Study Group, 11-13 September, Madrid, Internet Address: http://www.etsg.org/ETSG2003/papers/alguacil. pdf, Date of Access: 12.08.2013.
  • ALOMAR, Ibrahim; (2013), “Economic Growth and Savings in GCC: A Coin- tegration and Causal Relationship Analysis”, International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 3(9), pp. 213-219.
  • AMUSA, Kafayat and Busani MOYO; (2013), “Saving and Economic Growth in Bostwana: An Analysis Using Bounds Testing Approach to Coin- tegration”, Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 5(4), pp. 200-209.
  • ANDO, Albert and Franco MODIGLIANI; (1963), “The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests”, The American Eco- nomic Review, 53(1), pp. 55-84.
  • ANORUO, Emmanual and Yusuf AHMAD; (2001), “Causal Relationship Between Domestic Savings and Economic Growth: Evidence from Seven African Countries”, African Development Review, 13(2), pp. 238-249.
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  • KATIRCIOĞLU, Salih Turan and Ainur NARALIYEVA; (2006). “Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Savings and Economic Growth in Ka- zakistan: Evidence from Co-integration and Causality Tests”, In- vestment Management and Financial Innovations, 3(2), pp. 34-45.
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  • KÓNYA, Laszlo; (2005), “Saving and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis with Bootstrapping on Panels of Countries”, Journal of Economic Rese- arch, 10, pp. 231-260.
  • KORTELA, Tomi; Sami PARTANEN and Matti VIREN; (2007), “Saving, Growth and Fertility: Some Cross-Country Evidence”, Turun Ylıo- pısto University of Turku, Research Report (120), Internet Add- ress: cross-country-evidence-kortela-tomi/10003599170, Date of Access: 13.07.2012.
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  • LOAYZA, Norman; Klaus SCHMIDT-HEBBEL and Luis SERVÉN; (2000a), “Saving in Developing Countries: An Overview”, The World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), pp. 393-414.
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  • LÜTKEPOHL, Helmut and Markuz KRATZIG; (2004), Applied Time Series Econometrics, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • LÜTKEPOHL, Helmut; (2005), New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
  • MACKINNON, James G.; (1996), “Numerical Distribution Functions For Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, pp. 601-618.
  • MATUR, Eser Pirgan; Ali SABUNCU and Sema BAHÇECİ; (2012), “Determi- nants of Private Savings and Interaction Between Public & Private Savings in Turkey”, Topics in Middle Eastern and African Eco- nomies, 14, pp. 102-125.
  • MAVROTAS, George and Roger KELLY; (2001), “Old Wine in New Bottles: Testing Causality between Savings and Growth”, The Manchester School Supplement, 69, pp. 97-105.
  • MISZTAL, Piotr; (2011), “The Relationship between Savings and Economic Growth in Countries with different Level of Economic Develop- ment”, e-Finanse: Financial Internet Quarterly, 7(2), pp. 17-29.
  • MODIGLIANI, Franco and Richard BRUMBERG; (1954), “Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function”, in. The Collected Papers of Fran- co Modigliani, pp. 3-46, Internet Address: www.novasbe.unl.pt, Da- te of Access: 24.10.2011.
  • MODIGLIANI, Franco; (1970), “The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving and İn- ter-Country Differences in the Saving Ratio”, in W. A. ELTIS (Ed.), Induction, Growth and Trade: Essays in Honor of Roy Harrod, London: Clarendon Press, pp. 197-225.
  • MOHAN, Ramesh; (2006), “Causal Relationship between Savings and Econo- mic Growth in Countries with Different Income Levels”, Economic Bulletin, 5(3), pp. 1-12.
  • MORANDE, Felipe G.; (1998), “Savings in Chile. What Went Right?”, Journal of Development Economics, 57(1), pp. 201-228.
  • MPHUKA, Chrispin; (2010), “Are Savings Working for Zambia’s Growth?”, Zambia Social Science Journal, 1(2), pp. 175-188.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar and Seema NARAYAN; (2006), “Savings Behavi- our in Fiji: an Empirical Assessment using the ARDL Approach to Cointegration”, International Journal of Social Economics, 33(7), pp. 468-480.
  • ODHIAMBO, Nicholas M.; (2008), “Financial Depth, Savings and Economic Growth in Kenya: A Dynamic Causal Linkage”, Economic Model- ling, 25, pp. 704-713.
  • ODHIAMBO, Nicholas M.; (2009), “Saving and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Multivariate Causality Test”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(5), 708-718.
  • OLADIPO, Olajide S.; (2010), “Does Saving Really Matter for Growth in Deve- lopning Countries? The Case of a Small Open Economy”, Internati- onal Business & Economics Research Journal, 9(4), pp. 7-94.
  • ÖZCAN, Kıvılcım Metin ve Aslı GÜNAY; (2011), “Türkiye’de Özel Tasarruf- ları Belirleyen Unsurlar”, iç. Ercan UYGUR (Ed.), Türkiye’de Ta- sarruflar, Ankara: İmaj Yayınevi, ss.27-50.
  • ÖZCAN, Kıvılcım Metin; Aslı GÜNAY and Seda ERTAÇ; (2012), “Macro and Socioeconomic Determinants of Turkish Private Savings”, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 33(2), pp. 93-130.
  • ÖZCAN, Kıvılcım Metin; Aslı GÜNAY ve Seda ERTAÇ; (2003), “Determi- nants of Private Savings Behaviour in Turkey”, Applied Economics, 35, pp.1405-1416.
  • ÖZGEN, Ferhat Başkan ve Bülent GÜLOĞLU; (2004), “Türkiye’de İç Borçla- rın İktisadi Etkilerinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 31, ss. 93-114.
  • ÖZLALE, Ümit ve Ali KARAKURT; (2012), “Türkiye’de Tasarruf Açığının Nedenleri ve Kapatılması İçin Politika Önerileri”, Bankacılar Dergi- si, 23(83), ss. 1-33.
  • PESARAN, Hashem and Yongcheol SHIN; (1998), “Generalized Impulse Res- ponse Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models”, Economics Letters, 58(1), pp. 17-29.
  • PETERS, Sanjay and Rumi MASIH; (2005), “A Revisition of the Saving- Growth Nexus in Mexico”, Internet Adress: http://apps.esade.edu, Date of Access: 11.02.2012.
  • PHILLIPS, Peter and Pierre PERRON; (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75(2), pp. 335-346.
  • RAHMAN, Matiur and Muhammad MUSTAFA; (1997), “Dynamics of Real Exports and Real Economic Growths in 13 Selected Asian Count- ries”, Journal of Economic Development, 22(2), pp. 81-95.
  • RAMAJO, Julian; Agustin GARCIA and Montserrat FERE; (2006), “Explaining Aggregate Private Saving Behaviour: New Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries”, Applied Financial Economics Letters, 2, pp. 311-315.
  • RIJCKEGHEM, Caroline Van ve Murat ÜÇER; (2009), Türkiye’de Tasarruf Oranının Evrimi ve Başlıca Belirleyicileri: Doğru Politikalar İçin Çıkartılacak Dersler, TÜSİAD Yayın No: TÜSİAD-T/2009-02/482.
  • ROMER, David; (2006), Advanced Macroeconomics, Third Edition, New York: McGraw-Hill Companies.
  • ROMER, Paul; (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), pp. 1002-1037.
  • ROMM, Tina; (2003), “The Relationship between Savings and Growth in South Africa: http://www.tips.org.za/node/332, Date of Access: 04.07.2010. Empirical Study”, Internet Address:
  • SACHS, Jeffrey D. and Felipe B. LARRAIN; (1993). Macroeconomics In The Global Economy, First Edition, Prentice-Hall: United States of America.
  • SAENGTHONG, Prapaporn and Barudin MUHAMAD; (2011), “Relationship of Growth, Capital Inflow and Saving in Thailand for a Period 1993- 2007”, Internet Address: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1867864, Date of Access: 04.07.2013.
  • SAHOO, Pravakar; Geethanjali NATARAJ and B. KAMAIAH; (2001), “Sa- vings and Economic Growth in India: The Long Run Nexus, Savings and Development, 25(1), pp.67-80.
  • SAJID, G. M. and Mudassıra SARFRAZ; (2008), “Savings and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Issue of Causality”, Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 46(1), pp. 17-36.
  • SALTZ, Ira S.; (1999), “An Examination of the Causal Relationship between Savings and Growth in the Third World”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 23(1), pp. 90-98.
  • SEVÜKTEKİN, Mustafa ve Mehmet NARGELEÇEKENLER; (2010), Ekono- metrik Zaman Serileri Analizi, Üçüncü Baskı, Ankara: Nobel Ya- yınları.
  • SHAHBAZ, Muhammad and Ali KHAN; (2010), “Old Wine in New Bottles: Saving-Growth Nexus: Innovative Accounting Technique in Pakis- tan”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, pp. 17(7), 49-60.
  • SINGH, Tarlok; (2010), “Does Domestic Saving Cause Economic Growth? A Time-series Evidence from India”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(2), pp. 231-253.
  • SINHA, Dipendra and Tapen SINHA; (1998), “Cart Before Horse? The Saving- Growth Nexus in Mexico”, Economics Letter, 61, pp. 43-47.
  • SINHA, Dipendra and Tapen SINHA; (1999), “Saving and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka”, Indian Journal of Applied Economics, 8(3), pp. 163- 174.
  • SINHA, Dipendra; (1996) “Saving and Economic Growth in India”, Economia Internazionale, 49(4), pp. 637-647.
  • SOLOW, Robert M.; (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, pp. 65-94.
  • T.C. Kalkınma Bakanlığı; (2011), “Yüksek Büyümenin Sürdürülebilirliği: Yurtiçi Tasarrufların Rolü”, www.kalkinma.gov.tr, Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2012.
  • TABAN, Sami; (2011), “Do Savings Promote Economic Growth in Turkey? A Causality Analysis”, The Empirical Economic Letters, 10(7), pp. 647-654.
  • TANG, Chor F. and K. S. CH’NG; (2012), “A Multivariate Analysis of the Nexus between Savings and Economic Growth in the ASEAN-5 Economies”. Margin The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 6(3), 385-406.
  • TANG, Chor Foon and Soo CHUA; (2009), “The Saving-Growth Nexus in Ma- laysia: Evidence from Nonparametric Analysis”, The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, 7(3-4), pp. 83-94.
  • TANG, Chor Foon and Soo CHUA; (2012), “The Saving-Growth Nexus for the Malaysian Economy: A View Through Rolling Sub-Samples”, App- lied Economics, 44(32), pp. 4173-4185.
  • TARI, Recep ve Hilal BOZKURT; (2006), “Türkiye’de İstikrarsız Büyümenin VAR Modelleri ile Analizi (1991.1-2004.3)”, Ekonometri ve İsta- tistik Dergisi, 4, ss.12-28.
  • TODA, Hiro and Taku YAMAMOTO; (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, pp. 225-250.
  • UYGUR, Ercan; (2011), “Türkiye’de Tasarrufların Seyri ve Etkileyen Bazı Un- surlar”, iç. Ercan UYGUR (Ed.), Türkiye’de Tasarruflar, Ankara: İmaj Yayınevi, ss. 1-26.
  • VERMA, Reetu; (2007), “Saving, Investmen and Growth in India: An Applica- tion of the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach”, South Asia Economic Journal, 8(1), pp. 87-98.
  • VERMA, Reetu; (2008), “Savings, Investment, Foreign Capital Inflows and Economic Growth in India 1950-2005”, Internet Address: http://ro.uow.edu.au/theses/1935, Date of Access: 12.03.2012.
  • VUJANOVIC, Petar D.; (1999), “Habits and the Saving-Growth Relationship Why US Personal Savings Rates are at Historic Lows?, Internet Add- ress: Date of Access: 08.04.2012.
  • WAITHIMA, Abraham; (2008). “The Egg or Chick First; Saving or GDP Growth: Case for Kenya”, Internet Address: www.kcajournals.com/ article/ viewarticle/2986, Date of Access:17.10.2010.
  • YENTÜRK, Nurhan; Burcu ÜLENGİN and Ahmet ÇİMENOĞLU; (2009), “An Analysis of the Interaction among Savings, Investments, and Growth in Turkey ”, Applied Economics, 41(6), pp. 739-751.
Toplam 108 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Serap Barış Bu kişi benim

Nısfet Uzay Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 17 Kasım 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015 Sayı: 46

Kaynak Göster

APA Barış, S., & Uzay, N. (2015). Yurtiçi Tasarruflar ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(46), 119-151.

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