TÜRKİYE’DE KUR REJİMLERİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: KALMAN FİLTRESİ İLE BİR UYGULAMA

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 59, 421 - 434, 31.08.2021

Ümit Koç

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.867290

Öz

Küreselleşmenin reel ve finansal sektörler üzerindeki etkisine paralel olarak hem ürün tedarik
zincirleri hem de finansal piyasalar dünya ölçeğinde büyük bir hızla entegre olmaktadır. Bu entegrasyon
ile birlikte uluslararası ticaret ve portföy yatırımları bağlamında döviz kuru tüm ülkeler için daha da
önemli hale gelmektedir. 1970’li yılların sonundan itibaren sabit kur rejimleri terkedilmeye başlanmış
ve esnek kur rejimlerine geçiş sağlanmıştır. Bu çalışmadaki amacımız, 1960 - 2019 zaman aralığında
kur rejimleri ile büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmak ve bir model üzerinden Türkiye örneğini
incelemektir. Kullanılan modelde Kalman filtresi uygulanmakta ve zaman içinde değişen katsayıların
izlediği patika gözlemlenmektedir. Çalışmada katsayıların zaman içinde aldıkları değerler, sabit ve
yönetilen kur rejimlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde belirgin bir etkisinin olmadığı, esnek kur
rejimlerinin ise ekonomik büyümeyi negatif etkilediği sonuçlarına işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kur Rejimleri, Ekonomik Büyüme, Kalman Filtresi

THE RELATIONSHIP OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: AN APPLICATION WITH KALMAN FILTER

Öz

In parallel with the impact of globalization on the real and financial sectors, both product
supply chains and financial markets are rapidly integrated across the world. With this integration, the
exchange rate becomes even more important for all countries in the context of international trade and
portfolio investments. Since the end of the 1970s, most of the countries have left the fixed exchange
rate regimes and began to use flexible exchange rate regimes. In this study, our aim is to investigate the
relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for the 1960 - 2019 period, through
a model for Turkey. In the model Kalman filter is applied and the path of the time varying coefficients
are observed. In the study, the time varying values of the coefficients point to the results that fixed and
managed exchange rate regimes do not have a significant effect on economic growth, while flexible
exchange rate regimes affect economic growth negatively.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange Rate Regimes, Economic Growth, Kalman Filter

Kaynakça

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