What are the Determinants of Load Capacity Factor in Turkiye? Augmented ARDL Test Approach

Öz

Sustainable development and the reduction of environmental pressure are common concerns for both developed and developing countries. Researchers often use carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions, as well as ecological footprint, as indicators of environmental degradation and pollution. However, a more comprehensive ecological indicator is needed to assess environmental sustainability. In this context, the load capacity factor, calculated as the share of biological capacity within the ecological footprint, enables a more comprehensive evaluation of environmental sustainability. This study aims to identify the determinants of the load capacity factor for Turkiye. For this purpose, gross domestic product, trade openness, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption have been analyzed annually from 1980 to 2021. The Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (AARDL) model approach has been used to determine the effect of these variables on the load capacity factor and investigate the long and short-term relationships between the variables. The findings reveal cointegration relationship between the variables and the load capacity factor. Furthermore, to investigate the validity of the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) hypothesis, a linear approach proposed by Narayan and Narayan (2010) has been used. When examining long and short-term income elasticity, it can be stated that the LCC hypothesis is valid for Turkiye during the period considered.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ecological footprint
• Load capacity factor
• Energy consumption
• Economic growth
• Augmented ARDL

Türkiye’de Yük Kapasite Faktörünün Belirleyicileri Nelerdir? Genişletilmiş ARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Sürdürülebilir kalkınma ve çevresel baskının azaltılması, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ortak sorunudur. Araştırmacılar çevresel bozulma ve kirlilik kapsamında karbondioksit ile kükürtdioksit emisyonları ve ekolojik ayak izini sıklıkla çevresel bozulma göstergesi olarak kullansalar da çevresel sürdürülebilirliğin değerlendirilmesi için daha kapsamlı bir ekolojik göstergeye ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, ekolojik ayak izinin içinde biyolojik kapasitenin payı olarak hesaplanan yük kapasite faktörü, çevresel sürdürülebilirliğin daha kapsamlı bir şekilde değerlendirilmesine olanak sağlamaktadır. Çalışmada Türkiye için yük kapasite faktörünün belirleyicilerinin ortaya konulması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla 1980-2021 yılları arası dönemde gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla, ticari açıklık, yenilenebilir ve yenilenebilir olmayan enerji tüketimi değişkenleri yıllık frekansta ele alınmıştır. Bu değişkenlerin yük kapasite faktörü üzerindeki etkisinin belirlenmesi için Genişletilmiş Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikmeli model (AARDL) yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır ve değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişki araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, ele alınan değişkenler ile yük kapasite faktörü arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu görülmüştür. Bununla birlikte çalışmada Yük Kapasite Eğrisi (Load Capacity Curve-LCC) hipotezinin geçerliliğinin araştırılması için Narayan ve Narayan (2010) tarafından önerilen doğrusal yaklaşım kullanılmıştır. Buna göre, uzun ve kısa dönem gelir esnekliği incelendiğinde, Türkiye için ele alınan dönemde, LCC hipotezinin geçerli olduğu söylenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekolojik ayak izi
• Yük kapasite faktörü
• Enerji tüketimi
• Ekonomik büyüme
• Genişletilmiş ARDL

Kaynakça

1. Agila, A. B. T., Khalifa, W. M., Saint Akadiri, S., Adebayo, T. S., & Altuntaş, M. (2022). Determinants of Load Capacity Factor in South Korea: Does Structural Change Matter?. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(46), 69932-69948.
2. Acar, S., & Lindmark, M. (2016). Periods of Converging Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Oil Combustion in A Pre-Kyoto Context. Environmental Development, 19, 1-9.
3. Akadiri, S. S., Adebayo, T. S., Riti, J. S., Awosusi, A. A., & Inusa, E. M. (2022). The Effect of Financial Globalization and Natural Resource Rent on Load Capacity Factor in India: An Analysis Using The Dual Adjustment Approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(59), 89045-89062.
4. Aldy, J. E. (2006). Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?. Environmental and Resource Economics, 33(4), 533-555.
5. Al-Mulali U., Foon Tang C. (2013). Investigating The Validity of Pollution Haven Hypothesis in The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries. Energy Policy, 60, 813–819.
6. Allard, A., Takman, J., Uddin, G. S., & Ahmed, A. (2018). The N-Shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve: An Empirical Evaluation Using A Panel Quantile Regression Approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(6), 5848-5861.
7. Altıntaş, N., Açıkgöz, F., & Yeniyurt, M. (2023). Investigating The LCC Hypothesis in The Middle East, North Africa, And Turkey (Menat): Evidence from Second-Generation Panel Techniques. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-20.
8. Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2017). Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions across US States by Sector and Fossil Fuel Source: Evidence from Club Convergence Tests. Energy Economics, 63, 365-372.

9. Baek, J. (2015). Environmental Kuznets Curve For CO2 Emissions: The Case of Arctic Countries. Energy Economics, 50, 13-17.
10. Bilgili, F., & Ulucak, R. (2018). Is There Deterministic, Stochastic, and/or Club Convergence in Ecological Footprint Indicator among G20 Countries?. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, 35404-35419.
11. Bilgili, F., Ulucak, R., & Koçak, E. (2019). Implications of Environmental Convergence: Continental Evidence Based on Ecological Footprint. Energy and Environmental Strategies in The Era of Globalization, 133-165.
12. Brajer, V., Mead, R. W., & Xiao, F. (2008). Health Benefits of Tunneling Through The Chinese Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Ecological Economics, 66(4), 674-686.
13. Caglar, A. E., Pata, U. K., Ulug, M., & Zafar, M. W. (2023). Examining The Impact of Clean Environmental Regulations on Load Capacity Factor to Achieve Sustainability: Evidence from APEC Economies. Journal of Cleaner Production, 429, 139563.
14. Chen, Y., Wang, Z., & Zhong, Z. (2019). CO2 emissions, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy production and foreign trade in China. Renewable energy, 131, 208-216.
15. Dai, J., Ahmed, Z., Alvarado, R., & Ahmad, M. (2023). Assessing The Nexus Between Human Capital, Green Energy, and Load Capacity Factor: Policymaking for Achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Gondwana Research. 129, 452-464.
16. Dogan, A., & Pata, U. K. (2022). The role of ICT, R&D spending and renewable energy consumption on environmental quality: Testing the LCC hypothesis for G7 countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 380, 135038.
17. Erdogan, S., & Okumus, I. (2021). Stochastic and Club Convergence of Ecological Footprint: An Empirical Analysis for Different Income Group of Countries. Ecological Indicators, 121, 107123.
18. Ertugrul, H. M., Cetin, M., Seker, F., & Dogan, E. (2016). The impact of trade openness on global carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from the top ten emitters among developing countries. Ecological Indicators, 67, 543-555.
19. Esenyel İçen, N. M., İçen, H., & Uzuner, G. (2022). Evaluation of Ecological Security for The Association of Southeast Asian Nations-5 Countries: New Evidence from The RALS Unit Root Test. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 29(4), 705-725.
20. Fareed, Z., Salem, S., Adebayo, T. S., Pata, U. K., & Shahzad, F. (2021). Role Of Export Diversification And Renewable Energy On The Load Capacity Factor İn Indonesia: A Fourier Quantile Causality Approach. Frontiers İn Environmental Science, 9, 770152.
21. Galli, A. (2015). On The Rationale and Policy Usefulness of Ecological Footprint Accounting: The Case of Morocco. Environmental Science and Policy, 48, 210-224.
22. Güneysu, Y. (2023). Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme, Küreselleşme ve Sanayileşmenin Yük Kapasite Faktörü Üzerindeki Etkisi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(3), 934-946.
23. Guloglu, B., Caglar, A. E., & Pata, U. K. (2023). Analyzing The Determinants of The Load Capacity Factor in OECD Countries: Evidence from Advanced Quantile Panel Data Methods. Gondwana Research, 118, 92-104.
24. Grossman GM, Krueger AB. (1991). Environmental Impacts of A North American Free Trade Agreement. Working Paper No. 3914. Cambridge: National Bureau Of Economic Research.
25. Haider, S., & Akram, V. (2019). Club Convergence Analysis of Ecological and Carbon Footprint: Evidence from A Cross-Country Analysis. Carbon Management, 10(5), 451-463.
26. Herrerias, M. J. (2013). The Environmental Convergence Hypothesis: Carbon Dioxide Emissions According to the Source of Energy. Energy Policy, 61, 1140-1150.
27. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jacob, D., Taylor, M., Guillén Bolaños, T., Bindi, M., Brown, S., ... & Zhou, G. (2019). The Human Imperative of Stabilizing Global Climate Change At 1.5 C. Science, 365(6459).
28. Işık, C., Ahmad, M., Ongan, S., Ozdemir, D., Irfan, M., & Alvarado, R. (2021). Convergence Analysis of The Ecological Footprint: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the USMCA Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 32648-32659.
29. İçen, H. (2020). Environmental Kuznets Curve in D8 Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration. Ekoist: Journal Of Econometrics And Statistics, (32), 86-96.
30. Jarvis, M., Lange, G.-M., Hamilton, K., Desai, D., Fraumeni, B., Edens, B., Ferreira, S., Li, H., Chakraborti, L., Kingsmill, W., 2011. The Changing Wealth of Nations: Measuring Sustainable Development in the New Millennium. Environment and Development. World Bank.
31. Kuznets, S. (1955). International Differences in Capital Formation and Financing. In Capital Formation and Economic Growth (Pp. 19-111). Princeton University Press.
32. Lanne, M., & Liski, M. (2004). Trends and Breaks in Per-Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1870-2028. The Energy Journal, 25(4), 41-65.
33. Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, S. (2010). Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence From Developing Countries. Energy Policy, 38(1), 661-666.
34. Ozcan, B., Ulucak, R., & Dogan, E. (2019). Analyzing Long Lasting Effects of Environmental Policies: Evidence From Low, Middle and High Income Economies. Sustainable Cities and Society, 44, 130-143.
35. Pata, U. K. (2021). Do Renewable Energy and Health Expenditures Improve Load Capacity Factor in The USA And Japan? A New Approach to Environmental Issues. The European Journal of Health Economics, 22(9), 1427-1439.
36. Pata, U. K., & Isik, C. (2021). Determinants of The Load Capacity Factor in China: A Novel Dynamic ARDL Approach for Ecological Footprint Accounting. Resources Policy, 74, 102313.
37. Pata, U. K., & Balsalobre-Lorente, D. (2022). Exploring The Impact of Tourism and Energy Consumption on The Load Capacity Factor in Turkey: A Novel Dynamic ARDL Approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(9), 13491-13503.
38. Pata, U. K., & Samour, A. (2022). Do Renewable and Nuclear Energy Enhance Environmental Quality in France? A New EKC Approach with The Load Capacity Factor. Progress in Nuclear Energy, 149, 104249.
39. Pata, U. K., & Samour, A. (2023). Assessing The Role of The Insurance Market and Renewable Energy in The Load Capacity Factor of OECD Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(16), 48604-48616.
40. Rees, W. E. (1992). Ecological Footprints and Appropriated Carrying Capacity: What Urban Economics Leaves Out. Environment and Urbanization, 4(2), 121-130.
41. Sam, C. Y., McNown, R., & Goh, S. K. (2019). An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80, 130-141.
42. Shahbaz, M., Solarin, S.A., Sbia, R., Bibi, S., 2015. Does energy intensity contribute to CO2 emissions? A trivariate analysis in selected African countries. Ecol. Indicat. 50, 215–224.
43. Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications, 281-314.
44. Siche, R., Pereira, L., Agostinho, F., & Ortega, E. (2010). Convergence of Ecological Footprint and Emergy Analysis as A Sustainability Indicator of Countries: Peru as Case Study. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 15(10), 3182-3192.
45. Solarin, S.A., Bello, M.O. (2018). Persistence of Policy Shocks to An Environmental Degradation Index: The Case of Ecological Footprint in 128 Developed and Developing Countries. Ecological Indicators, 89, 35–44.
46. Solarin, S.A. (2019). Convergence in CO2 Emissions, Carbon Footprint and Ecological Footprint: Evidence from OECD Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(6), 6167–6181.
47. Solarin, S. A., Tiwari, A. K., & Bello, M. O. (2019). A Multi-Country Convergence Analysis of Ecological Footprint and Its Components. Sustainable Cities and Society, 46, 101422.
48. Song, M., Guo, X., Wu, K., Wang, G., 2015. Driving effect analysis of energy-consumption carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region. J. Clean. Prod. 103, 620–628.
49. Strazicich, M. C., & List, J. A. (2003). Are CO2 Emission Levels Converging among Industrial Countries?. Environmental and Resource Economics, 24(3), 263-271.
50. Tatoğlu, F., & İçen, H. (2019). Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisinin Çok Boyutlu Panel Veri Modelleri ile Analizi. Anadolu İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 3(1), 26-38.
51. Tatoğlu, F. Y., & Polat, B. (2021). Occurrence of Turning Points on Environmental Kuznets Curve: Sharp Breaks or Smooth Shifts?. Journal of Cleaner Production, 317, 128333.
52. Ulucak, R., & Lin, D. (2017). Persistence of Policy Shocks to Ecological Footprint of The USA. Ecological Indicators, 80, 337-343.
53. Ulucak, R., Apergis, N. (2018). Does Convergence Really Matter for the Environment? An Application Based on Club Convergence and on the Ecological Footprint Concept for the EU Countries. Environental Science and Policy, 80, 21–27.
54. Wenlong, Z., Tien, N. H., Sibghatullah, A., Asih, D., Soelton, M., & Ramli, Y. (2023). Impact of energy efficiency, technology innovation, institutional quality, and trade openness on greenhouse gas emissions in ten Asian economies. Environmental science and pollution research, 30(15), 43024-43039.
55. Westerlund, J., & Basher, S. A. (2008). Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using A Century of Panel Data. Environmental and Resource Economics, 40, 109-120.
56. Xu, D., Salem, S., Awosusi, A. A., Abdurakhmanova, G., Altuntaş, M., Oluwajana, D., ... & Ojekemi, O. (2022). Load Capacity Factor and Financial Globalization in Brazil: The Role of Renewable Energy and Urbanization. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 9, 823185.
57. Yavuz, N. C., & Yılancı, V. (2013). Convergence in Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions Among G7 Countries: A TAR Panel Unit Root Approach. Environmental and Resource Economics, 54, 283-291.
58. Yılancı, V., Görüş, M. S., & Aydın, M. (2019). Are Shocks to Ecological Footprint in OECD Countries Permanent or Temporary?. Journal of Cleaner Production, 212, 270-301.