DIŞSAL TEKNOLOJİK ŞOKLAR VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Reel Konjonktür Teorisi (RBC) ekseninde teknolojik şokların özelliklede dışsal teknolojik şokların reel ekonominin işleyişini ne şekilde etkilediğini teorik olarak tespit etmek ve Türkiye’nin de dahil olduğu 12 gelişmekte olan ülkenin (GOÜ) veya başka bir deyişle Yükselen Ekonominin büyüme trendleri ile dışsal teknolojik şoklar arasında ampirik boyutta iktisadi ve istatistiki anlamda anlamlı bir ilişki olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Çalışma kapsamında; Dow Jones tarafından Mayıs 2010 tarihinde belirlenmiş olan 35 yükselen piyasa ekonomisinden çalışmanın incelemiş olduğu 1980- 2008 dönemine ilişkin sağlıklı verilere ulaşılabilen 12 ülke örneklem grubu olarak belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen analiz bulguları GOÜ’lerin önemli ölçüde dış kaynak ve teknoloji bağımlısı oldukları ve dışsal olarak tanımlanmış teknolojik şoklardan da önemli ölçüde etkilendiklerini göstermektedir. Ayrıca çalışma kapsamında yatırıma özgü teknolojik değişmelerin kısa dönemde konjonktür hareketlerindeki değişmenin önemli bir kısmını açıklama gücüne sahip olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Exogenous Technological Shocks, Real Business Cycles Theory

Kaynakça

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59. 1980-2008 dönemi için sağlıklı verilere ulaşılamayan ülkeler; Çek Cumhuriyeti, Kuveyt, Umman, Rusya, Bahreyn, Mısır, Letonya, Pakistan, Slovakya, Estonya, Litvanya, Peru, Sri Lanka, Macaristan, Bulgaristan, Polonya, Maurituis, Ürdün, Romanya, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri, Kolombiya ve Fas’tır