THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ON INDIVIDUAL AND CORPORATE FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS

Öz

This study aims to observe the effects of global economic and political risk and geopolitical risk on individual and corporate financial transactions. In the study, "Global Economic and Political Risk Index" and "Geopolitical Risk Index" variables are selected as independent variables, while "Number of Individuals who have defaulted on Personal Loans", "Number of Bad Checks", "Number of Individuals who have defaulted on Personal Credit Cards" and "Number of Protested Promissory Notes" variables are selected as dependent variables. In this sense, the time series subject to the study cover the 43-quarter period between the 3rd quarter of 2012 and the 1st quarter of 2023. The ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) unit root test, which is frequently used in the literature, is used for the stationarity test. Four separate ARDL models are used to examine the relationships. The VAR model is used to determine the optimal lag length for endogenous and exogenous variables in the ARDL model. The bounds test was used to determine the long-run relationship between the variables. According to the findings of the research, the Number of Individual Loan Defaulters is not affected by the Global Economic and Political Risk Index and the Geopolitical Risk Index in both the long and short run; the Number of Individuals with Bad Checks is positively related to the Global Economic and Political Risk Index in the short run and negatively related to it in the long run; Number of Individual Credit Card Debt Defaulters is positively related to the Geopolitical Risk Index in the short run and negatively related to the Global Economic and Political Risk Index in the long run; and Number of Protested Bills is negatively related to the Global Economic and Political Risk Index only in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Global Economic
• Political risk
• Geopolitical Risk
• Retail Financial Transactions
• Corporate Financial Transactions.

KÜRESEL EKONOMİK, POLİTİK VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKLERİN BİREYSEL VE KURUMSAL FİNANSAL İŞLEMLERE ETKİSİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada bireysel ve kurumsal finansal işlemler üzerinde küresel ekonomik ve politik risk ile jeopolitik riskin etkileri gözlemlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada bağımsız değişken olarak “Küresel Ekonomik ve Politik Risk Endeksi” ile “Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi” değişkenleri; bağımlı değişken olarak “Bireysel Kredi Borcunu Ödememiş Gerçek Kişi Sayısı”, “Karşılıksız Çek İşlemi Yapılan Kişi Sayısı”, “Bireysel Kredi Kartı Borcunu Ödememiş Gerçek Kişi Sayısı” ve “Protestolu Senet Sayısı” değişkenleri seçilmiştir. Bu anlamda çalışmaya konu olan zaman serileri 2012 yılının 3. çeyreği ile 2023 yılının 1. çeyreği arasındaki 43 çeyreklik dönemi kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada durağanlık sınaması için literatürde sıklıkla kullanılan ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. İlişkilerin incelenmesi için birbirinden ayrı olarak 4 ayrı ARDL modeli Kullanıştır. ARDL modelinde içsel ve dışsal değişkenler için optimal gecikme uzunluğunun belirlenmesi için VAR modeli kullanılmıştır. Sınır testi ile değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin tespiti yapılmıştır. Araştırmanın bulgularına göre; Bireysel kredi borcunu ödememiş gerçek kişi sayısı hem uzun hem de kısa vadede küresel ekonomik ve politik risk endeksi ve jeopolitik risk endeksinden etkilenmemektedir; karşılıksız çek işlemi yapılan kişi sayısı, küresel ekonomik ve politik risk endeksi ile kısa vadede pozitif, uzun vadede ise negatif ilişkilidir; bireysel kredi kartı borcunu ödememiş gerçek kişi sayısı, jeopolitik risk endeksi ile kısa vadede pozitif, küresel ekonomik ve politik risk endeksi ile uzun vadede negatif ilişkilidir ve protestolu senet sayısı, sadece uzun dönemde küresel ekonomik ve politik risk endeksi ile negatif ilişkilidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Küresel Ekonomi
• Politik Risk
• Jeopolitik Risk
• Bireysel Finansal İşlemler
• Kurumsal Finansal İşlemler.

Kaynakça

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