Katılım Koşulluğundan Stratejik Belirsizliğe: AB'nin Türkiye'de Demokrasi ve İnsan Hakları Üzerindeki Etkisinin Değerlendirilmesi (1999–2025)

Öz

Bu makale, Avrupa Birliği'nin Türkiye'de demokrasi ve insan haklarını teşvik etme çabalarının 1999 Helsinki Zirvesi'nden 2025 ortasına kadar geçirdiği dönüşümü ve bu dönüşüm sürecini incelemektedir. Çalışma, AB tarafından uygulanan araçları, reform dönemlerini ve demokratik gerilemeleri incelemekte ve bu süreçleri şekillendiren iç ve dış faktörleri analiz etmektedir. Nitel ve tarihsel-kurumsalcı bir yöntem benimsenmiştir; AB İlerleme Raporları, Türkiye'nin yasal reform belgeleri ve önemli siyasi gelişmeler söylem analizi ve süreç izleme teknikleri kullanılarak değerlendirilmektedir. 2000'li yılların başında, üyelik müzakereleri, reform yol haritaları ve katılım öncesi mali yardımlar çerçevesinde uygulanan AB koşulluluğu demokratik reformlarda somut kazanımlar sağlamıştır. Ancak bu etki sonraki yıllarda giderek azalmıştır. Brüksel'deki genişleme yorgunluğu, Türkiye'nin özellikle 2016 darbe girişiminden sonra yaşadığı otoriter süreç ve göç-güvenlik temelli çıkarlar, AB-Türkiye ilişkilerini daha araçsal ve kısa vadeli bir yapıya dönüştürmüştür. Bu çalışma, AB'nin Türkiye üzerindeki demokratik etkisinin zaman içinde nasıl zayıfladığını ortaya koymakta ve kalıcı demokratik dayanıklılık için kısa vadeli jeopolitik hesaplamaların ötesine geçilmesi gerektiğini savunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• AB–Türkiye İlişkileri
• Demokrasi Teşviki
• Katılım Koşulluluğu
• Koşulluluk Sonrası Dönem
• Otoriterleşme ve Avrupaileşme

From Accession Conditionality to Strategic Ambiguity: Evaluating the EU’s Influence on Democracy and Human Rights in Turkey (1999–2025)

Öz

This article examines the transformation of the European Union’s efforts to promote democracy and human rights in Turkey from the 1999 Helsinki Summit to mid-2025. The study analyzes the instruments implemented by the EU, reform periods, and democratic setbacks, and examines the internal and external factors that shape these processes. A qualitative and historical-institutionalist method is adopted; EU Progress Reports, Turkey’s legal reform documents, and important political developments are evaluated using discourse analysis and process monitoring techniques. In the early 2000s, EU conditionality implemented within the framework of membership negotiations, reform roadmaps, and pre-accession financial assistance provided concrete gains in democratic reforms. However, this effect gradually diminished in the following years. Enlargement fatigue in Brussels, the authoritarian process that Turkey has experienced, especially after the 2016 coup attempt, and migration-security-based interests have transformed EU-Turkey relations into a more instrumental and short-term structure. This study reveals how the EU's democratic influence on Turkey has weakened over time and argues that for lasting democratic resilience, it is necessary to go beyond short-term geopolitical calculations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• EU–Turkey Relations
• Democracy Promotion
• Accession Conditionality
• Post-Conditionality
• Authoritarianism and Europeanization

Kaynakça

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