A HISTORICAL AND COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE ON CHINESE ECONOMIC GROWTH

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 78, 796 - 807, 01.04.2021

İbrahim Külünk

https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.718584

Öz

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a transition period from the socialist economic model to the liberal economy model in two important regions of the world. The first is Eastern Europe and the second is China. The transition applied in Eastern European countries is an economic and institutional transformation, which is described as "Shock Therapy". On the other hand, China managed this process with a “Gradual” model, first in the economic field and then with limited institutional transformation. Looking at both regions today, it is seen that the model applied by China has much more positive results than the other. In this study, the economic policies of China in the past 70 years have been analyzed from a historical perspective. Also for the period 1991 – 2018 Johansen cointegration test was applied with GDP, Foreign Direct Investment, Industry and Trade variables. According to the result, these variables act together in the long term. Granger causality test shows that the increase in income in China has a positive relationship with other variables.

Anahtar Kelimeler

China, Economic Growth, Shock Therapy

ÇİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMESİNE TARİHSEL VE KARŞILAŞTIRMALI BİR BAKIŞ

Öz

Sovyetler Birliği’nin dağılmasından sonra dünyanın iki önemli bölgesinde sosyalist ekonomik modelden liberal ekonomi modeline geçiş süreci yaşanmıştır. İlki Doğu Avrupa ikincisi ise Çin’dir. Doğu Avrupa ülkelerinde uygulanan geçiş “şok terapi” olarak nitelendirilen hem ekonomik hem kurumsal bir dönüşümdür. Çin ise “aşamalı” bir geçişle önce ekonomik alanda daha sonra kısıtlı bir kurumsal dönüşümle bu süreci yönetmiştir. Bugün her iki bölgeye bakıldığında Çin’in uyguladığı modelin diğerine göre çok daha olumlu sonuçları olduğu görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, son 70 yılda Çin’in bugüne kadarki uyguladığı ekonomi politikaları tarihsel bir perspektifle incelenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çin, Ekonomik Büyüme, Şok Terapi, Aşamalı Model

Kaynakça

• Aghion, P., Blanchard O. J. (1994). On the speed of transition in Central Europe, National Bureau for Economic Research Macroeconomic Annual, (9), 283–320.
• Ashton, B., Hill, K., Piazza, A., Zeitz, A. (1984). Famine in China, 1958–61, Population and Development Review, 10 (4), 613-645.
• Aslund, A. (1991). Principles of privatization, Systemic Change and Stabilization in Eastern Europe, 17-31.
• Balcerowicz, L. (1995). Socialism, capitalism, transformation. Budapest, London, New York. Central European University Press.
• Banister, J. (1987). China’s changing population. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
• Berg A, Sachs J. (1992). Structural adjustment and international trade in Eastern Europe: The case of Poland, Economic Policy, 7 (14), 117–173.
• Boycko M. (1992). When higher incomes reduce welfare: Queues, labor supply, and macro equilibrium in socialist economies, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, (3), 907–920.
• Chan, Kam, Wing. (1994). Cities with invisible walls: Reinterpreting urbanization in post-1949 China. Oxford University Press, Hong Kong.
• CIA (1959). Economic Relations of Communist China with the USSR since 1950. Economic Intelligence Report, CIA/RR, 59-16.
• Clarke, S., Lee, C. H., Li, Q. (2004). Collective consultation and industrial relations in China. British journal of industrial relations, 42(2), 235-254.
• Coale, A. J. (1981). Population trends, population policy, and population studies in China, Population and Development Review, 7, (1), 85–97.
• Deniz, Y. (2014). Çin’in ekonomik dönüşümü ve Üçüncü Dünya, Barış Araştırmaları ve Çatışma Çözümleri Dergisi, 2(2), 64-80.
• Dewatripont, M., Roland, G. (1992). The virtues of gradualism and legitimacy in the transition to a market economy, The Economic Journal, 102 (411), 291-300.
• Fang C, Garnaut R., Song, L. (2018). 40 years of China’s reform and development: How reform captured China’s demographic dividend., ANU Press.
• Frydman, R., Rapaczynski A. (1994). Privatization in Eastern Europe: Is the state withering away?. Central European University Press.
• Gallagher, M., E. (2002). Reform and openness: Why China's economic reforms have delayed democracy. World Politics, 54 (3), 338-372.
• Garnaut R. (2001). Twenty years of economic reform and structural change in the Chinese economy. In: Growth Without Miracles. Oxford University Press.
• Global Times (2018). 40 years after reform and opening-up: China's GDP 1978-2017.” www.globaltimes.cn
• Gold T., B. (1985). After comradeship: Personal relations in China since the cultural revolution, The China Quarterly, (104), 657-675.
• Kanbur R., Zhang, X. (2005). Fifty years of regional inequality in China: a journey through central planning, reform, and openness, Review of Development Economics, 9 (1), 87–106.
• Kung J. K., Lin, L. (2003). The causes of China's great leap famine, 1959-1961, Economic Development and Cultural Change 52 (1), 51-73.
• Lin J., Y. (1988). The household responsibility system in China's agricultural reform: A theoretical and empirical study, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36 (3), 199-224.
• Lin J., (1990). Collectivization and China’s agricultural crisis in 1959-1961, Journal of Political Economy, 98 (6), 1-42.
• Lipton D., Sachs J. D. (1990). Creating a market economy in Eastern Europe: The case of Poland, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 21 (1), 75-148.
• Ma J. C. L. (2002). Urban transformation in China, 1949 - 2000: A review and research agenda, Environment and Planning, (34), 1545 – 1569. Marangos, J. (2003). Was Shock Therapy really a shock? Journal of Economic Issues, Vol: XXXVII, No: 4, 943-966.
• McKinnon, Ronald. I. (1992). The order of economic liberalization. Financial control in the transition to a market economy. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
• Medvedev, R. (1986). China and the superpowers, Oxford, New York, Basil Blackwell.
• McMillan J., Naughton B. (1992). How to reform a planned economy: Lessons from China, Oxford Review Of Economic Policy, 8 (1), 130-143.
• Mukherjee A., Zhang X. (2007). “Rural industrialization in China and India: Role of policies and institutions, World Development, 35 (10), 1621-1634.
• Murph K. M., Shleifer A., Vishny R. W. (1992). The transition to a market economy: Pitfalls of partial reform, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107 (3), 889-906.
• Nought Barry J. (2007). The Chinese economy transitions and growth. The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts, London.
• Peng, X. (1987). Demographic consequences of the great leap forward in China’s provinces, Population and Development Review, 13 (4), 639-670.
• Portes, R. (1991). The path of refrom in Central and Eastern Europe: An introduction. in: European Economy, Special Issue, 3–15.
• Roland, G. (1991). Political economy of sequencing tactics in the transition period. in: Csaba, László (Hg.): Systematic Change and Stabilization in Eastern Europe.” Aldershot: Dartmouth, 47–64.
• Roland G. (2000). Transition and economics: Politics, markets, and firms, The MIT Press.
• Sachs, J. (1994). Poland's jump to the market economy. 1. paperback ed. Cambridge, MIT Press (The Lionel Robbins lectures).
• Sachs J. (1994). Shock therapy in Poland: Perspectives of five years, The Tanner Lectures on Human Values, pp. 2965-290.
• Saray, M. O., Gökdemir, L. (2007). Çin ekonomisinin büyüme aşamaları (1978-2005), Journal of Yaşar University, 2(7), 661-686.
• Shin H. B. (2015). Urbanization in China, International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, 2nd edition, (24), 973-979.
• Svejnar J. (1989). A framework for the economic transformation of Czechoslovakia, Eastern European Economics, 29(2), 5-28.
• Ting Tih-Fen, (2004). Shifts in reproductive patterns in China, Population and Environment, 25(4), 299-317.
• Woo W. T.(1994). The art of reforming centrally planned economies: Comparing China, Poland and Russia, Journal of Comprative Economics, (18), 276-308.
• Worden, R. L., Savada, A. M., Dolan, R. E. (1987). China: A country study. 4th ed. Washington, DC: Library of Congress.
• World Bank. (2018, 2020). www.worldbank.org
• Xiaoping, D. (1984). Build socialism with Chinese characteristics, pp. 1-5 in The Research Department of Party Literature, Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (1991).
• Yao, S. (1999). A note on the causal factors of China’s famine in 1959– 1961, Journal of Political Economy, 107 (6), 1365-1369.
• Zhang, W, Yi, G. (1995). China's gradual reform: a historical perspective. CCER.
• Zhou Y., Ma, L. C. J. (2003). China’s urbanization levels: Reconstructing a baseline from the fifth population census, The China Quarterly, (173), 176-196.
• Zhu X. (2012). Understanding ,hina’s growth: Past, present and future, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26 (4), 103-124.