Araştırma Makalesi
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Türk Mevduat Bankalarında Sorunlu Kredilerin Belirleyicileri

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2, 658 - 677
https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.1544203

Öz

Bu araştırmanın temel amacı, Türk mevduat bankalarının bankacılık faaliyetlerinde sorunlu kredi (NPLs) durumunun belirleyicilerini ortaya koymaktır. Çalışmanın amacı, 20 mevduat bankası için panel regresyon analizi yöntemini kullanarak 2012-2023 yılları arasında hem banka düzeyindeki veriler hem de makroekonomik göstergeler açısından sorunlu kredilerin belirleyicilerini değerlendirmektir. Hausman testi uygulanarak NPLs için rastgele modelin geçerli olduğu görülmüştür. Ampirik analiz sonuçları, sorunlu kredilerin (NPLs) bir dizi faktör tarafından belirlendiğini göstermektir. Bu faktörler banka büyüklüğü, karlılık, kredi verme davranışları ve kredi kalitesi olarak sıralanmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, banka büyüklüğünün (BS), varlık getirisinin (ROA), kredi düzeyinin (LTA) ve kredi kalitesinin (PLLTA) NPLs üzerindeki etkisinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Alnabulsi, K., Kozarević, E., & Hakimi, A. (2023). Non-performing loans as a driver of banking distress: A systematic literature review. Commodities, 111-130. https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities2020007
  • Altınbaş, H., & Hanişoğlu, G.S. (2023). Forecasting and evaluation of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector. Istanbul Business Research, 52(2), 381-406. https://doi.org/10.26650/ibr.2023.52.994354
  • Beaton, K., Myrvoda, A., & Thompson, S. (2016). Non-performing loans in the ECCU: Determinants and macroeconomic impact. IMF Working Paper, No. 16/229, 1-33.
  • Bekereci, N.E., Kısakürek, M., Ayrıçay, Y. (2023). Sorunlu kredilere etki eden faktörler: Farklı gelişmişlik düzeyindeki ülkeler üzerine bir araştırma. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 17(2), 131-152.
  • Belgrave, A., Kester, G., & Jackman, M. (2012). Industry specific shocks and non-performing loans in Barbados. The Review of Finance and Banking, 4(2): 123-133.
  • Berger, A., & DeYoung, R. (1997). Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks. Journal of Banking & Finance, 21, 849–870. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00003-4
  • BRSA Report. (2023). https://www.bddk.org.tr/KurumHakkinda/EkGetir/5?ekId=262
  • Chaibi, H., & Ftiti, Z. (2015). Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study. Research in International Business and Finance, 33, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.06.001
  • Cucinelli, D. (2015). The impact of non-performing loans on bank lending behavior: Evidence from the Italian banking sector. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 8(16), 59-71. http://dx.doi.org/10.17015/ejbe.2015.016.04
  • Das, D., Rathi, M., & Suresh, K. (2024). Moral Hazard in Lending Decisions of Indian Public Sector Banks. Journal of Financial Risk Management, 13, 605-617. https://doi.org/10.4236/jfrm.2024.134028
  • Erdoğan, B. (2024). Bankaların takipteki kredilerini etkileyen faktörlerin panel veri modelleri ile analizi. Uluslararası Ekonomi Siyaset İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Dergisi, 7(3), 141-152.
  • Ersoy, E. (2021), The determinants of the non-performing loans: The case of Turkish banking sector. International Journal of Insurance and Finance, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.52898/ijif.2021.6
  • Fofack, H. (2005). Non-performing loans in Sub-saharan Africa: Causal analysis and macroeconomic implications. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. WP 3769:1-36.
  • Gjeçi, A., Marinč, M., Rant, V. (2023). Non-performing loans and bank lending behaviour. Risk Management, 25(7), 1-26.
  • Ghosh, A. (2015). Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: evidence from US states. Journal of Financial Stability, 20, 93-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2015.08.004
  • Goyal, S., Singhal, N., Mishra, N., & Verma, S.K. (2023). The impact of macroeconomic and institutional environment on NPL of developing and developed countries. Future Business Journal, 9(45), 1-15.
  • İlhan, S.T., & Gökçe, A. (2024). Türkiye’de takipteki kredilerin banka kredi verme davranışına etkisi. Gazi İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 10(1): 120-134. https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2024.10.1.008
  • Hardiyanti, S.E., & Aziz, L.H. (2021). The case of COVID-19 impact on the level of non-performing loans of conventional commercial banks in Indonesia. Banks and Bank Systems, 16(1), 62-68. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.16(1).2021.06
  • Isik, O., & Bolat, S. (2016). Determinants of non-performing loans of deposit banks in Turkey. Journal of Business, Economics and Finance, 5(4), 341-350. http://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2017.356
  • Kartal, F. (2023). Sorunlu kredilerdeki değişimin kârlılık ve sermaye yeterliliğine etkisi. Ekonomi, İşletme ve Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 25-42. https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.1210493
  • Khan, M.A., Siddique, A., & Sarwar, Z. (2020). Determinants of non-performing loans in the banking sector in developing state. Asian Journal of Accounting Research, 5 (1),135-145. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJAR-10-2019-0080
  • Klein, N. (2013). Non-performing loans in CESEE: Determinants and macroeconomic Performance. IMF Working Paper, WP/13/72, 1-26.
  • Li, Z., & Lai. R.N. (2024). Are “too big to fail” banks just different in size? – A study on systemic risk and stand-alone risk. International Review of Financial Analysis, 93, 1-23.
  • Mamonov, M.E. (2013). Bad management, skimping, or both? The relationship between cost efficiency and loan quality in Russian banks. Basic Research Program Working Paper, Series: Financial Economics WP BRP 19/FE/2013, 1-43.
  • Maseke, B. F., & Swartz, E. M. (2021). Risk Management Impact on Non-Performing Loans and Profitability in the Namibian Banking Sector. Open Access Library Journal, 8, e6943. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1106943
  • Kryzanowski, L. Liu, J., & Zhang, J. (2023). Effect of COVID-19 on non-performing loans in China. Finance Research Letters, 52, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103372
  • Messai, A.S., & Jouini, F. (2013). Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-performing Loans. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), 852-860.
  • Nkusu, M. (2011). Nonperforming loans and macrofinancial vulnerabilities in advanced economies. IMF Working Paper, No 11/161.
  • OECD Report. (2021). The COVID-19 crisis and banking system resilience: Simulation of losses on non-performing loans and policy implications, 1-52.
  • Park, C.Y., & Shin, K. (2021). COVID-19, nonperforming loans, and cross-border bank lending. Journal of Banking & Finance, 133, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106233
  • Plikas, J.H., Kenourgios, D., & Savvakis, G.A. (2024). COVID-19 and non-performing loans in Europe. Risk Financial Management, 17(7), 1-38. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17070271
  • Ranjan, R., & Dhal, S.C. (2003). Non-performing loans and terms of credit of public sector banks in India: An empirical assessment. Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 24(3), 81-121. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2016.64042
  • Reddy, Y.V. (2004). Credit policy, systems, and culture. Reserve Bank of India Bulletin, 303-311. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.843836
  • Sahbaz, N., & Inkaya, I. (2010). Türk bankacılık sektöründe sorunlu krediler ve makroekonomik etkileri. Optimum Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 1(1), 69-82.
  • Skarica, B. (2014). Determinants of non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries. Financial Theory and Practice, 38(1), 37-59. https://doi.org/10.3326/fintp.38.1.2
  • Toksoy, T. (2024). Makroekonomik göstergelerin takipteki banka kredileri üzerindeki etkisi: Avrupa bölgesi ülkeleri için ampirik bir inceleme. Scientific Journal of Innovation and Social Sciences Research, 4(2), 130-140.
  • Tölö, E., Jokivuolle, E., & Viren, M. (2021). Have too-big-to-fail expectations diminished? Evidence from the European overnight interbank market. Journal of Financial Services Research, 60, 25-54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-021-00351-2
  • Us, V. (2020). A panel VAR approach on analyzing non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector. 14(1), Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets,1-38. https://doi.org/10.46520/bddkdergisi.789935
  • Vardar, G., & Özgüler, İ.C. (2015). Short term and long term linkages among nonperforming loans, macroeconomic and bank specific factors: An empirical analysis for Turkey. Ege Academic Review, 15 (3), 313-325.
  • Wang, K. (2019). Comparative analysis of business management of Chinese and foreign commercial banks—Based on the perspective of non-performing loans of commercial banks. Modern Economy, 10, 108-119. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2019.101008
  • Žunić, A., Kozarić, K., & Dželihodžić, E.Z. (2021). Non-performing loan determinants and impact of COVID-19: Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 3, 5-22. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0021

Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Turkish Deposit Banks

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2, 658 - 677
https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.1544203

Öz

The main purpose of this research is to reveal the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) of Turkish deposit banks on banking operations. The study aims to evaluate the determinants of non-performing loans in terms of both bank-level data and macroeconomic indicators between 2012 and 2023 by using the method of panel regression analysis for 20 deposit banks. Random model is valid for NPLs by applying Hausmen test. The results of the empirical analysis suggest that the non-performing loans (NPLs) is determined by a series of factors. These factors are listed as bank size, profitability, lending activity and credit quality. Analysis results indicate that the effect of bank size (BS), return on assets (ROA), lending level (LTA) and credit quality (PLLTA) on NPLs are statistically significant.

Kaynakça

  • Alnabulsi, K., Kozarević, E., & Hakimi, A. (2023). Non-performing loans as a driver of banking distress: A systematic literature review. Commodities, 111-130. https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities2020007
  • Altınbaş, H., & Hanişoğlu, G.S. (2023). Forecasting and evaluation of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector. Istanbul Business Research, 52(2), 381-406. https://doi.org/10.26650/ibr.2023.52.994354
  • Beaton, K., Myrvoda, A., & Thompson, S. (2016). Non-performing loans in the ECCU: Determinants and macroeconomic impact. IMF Working Paper, No. 16/229, 1-33.
  • Bekereci, N.E., Kısakürek, M., Ayrıçay, Y. (2023). Sorunlu kredilere etki eden faktörler: Farklı gelişmişlik düzeyindeki ülkeler üzerine bir araştırma. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 17(2), 131-152.
  • Belgrave, A., Kester, G., & Jackman, M. (2012). Industry specific shocks and non-performing loans in Barbados. The Review of Finance and Banking, 4(2): 123-133.
  • Berger, A., & DeYoung, R. (1997). Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks. Journal of Banking & Finance, 21, 849–870. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00003-4
  • BRSA Report. (2023). https://www.bddk.org.tr/KurumHakkinda/EkGetir/5?ekId=262
  • Chaibi, H., & Ftiti, Z. (2015). Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study. Research in International Business and Finance, 33, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.06.001
  • Cucinelli, D. (2015). The impact of non-performing loans on bank lending behavior: Evidence from the Italian banking sector. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 8(16), 59-71. http://dx.doi.org/10.17015/ejbe.2015.016.04
  • Das, D., Rathi, M., & Suresh, K. (2024). Moral Hazard in Lending Decisions of Indian Public Sector Banks. Journal of Financial Risk Management, 13, 605-617. https://doi.org/10.4236/jfrm.2024.134028
  • Erdoğan, B. (2024). Bankaların takipteki kredilerini etkileyen faktörlerin panel veri modelleri ile analizi. Uluslararası Ekonomi Siyaset İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Dergisi, 7(3), 141-152.
  • Ersoy, E. (2021), The determinants of the non-performing loans: The case of Turkish banking sector. International Journal of Insurance and Finance, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.52898/ijif.2021.6
  • Fofack, H. (2005). Non-performing loans in Sub-saharan Africa: Causal analysis and macroeconomic implications. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. WP 3769:1-36.
  • Gjeçi, A., Marinč, M., Rant, V. (2023). Non-performing loans and bank lending behaviour. Risk Management, 25(7), 1-26.
  • Ghosh, A. (2015). Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: evidence from US states. Journal of Financial Stability, 20, 93-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2015.08.004
  • Goyal, S., Singhal, N., Mishra, N., & Verma, S.K. (2023). The impact of macroeconomic and institutional environment on NPL of developing and developed countries. Future Business Journal, 9(45), 1-15.
  • İlhan, S.T., & Gökçe, A. (2024). Türkiye’de takipteki kredilerin banka kredi verme davranışına etkisi. Gazi İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 10(1): 120-134. https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2024.10.1.008
  • Hardiyanti, S.E., & Aziz, L.H. (2021). The case of COVID-19 impact on the level of non-performing loans of conventional commercial banks in Indonesia. Banks and Bank Systems, 16(1), 62-68. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.16(1).2021.06
  • Isik, O., & Bolat, S. (2016). Determinants of non-performing loans of deposit banks in Turkey. Journal of Business, Economics and Finance, 5(4), 341-350. http://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2017.356
  • Kartal, F. (2023). Sorunlu kredilerdeki değişimin kârlılık ve sermaye yeterliliğine etkisi. Ekonomi, İşletme ve Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 25-42. https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.1210493
  • Khan, M.A., Siddique, A., & Sarwar, Z. (2020). Determinants of non-performing loans in the banking sector in developing state. Asian Journal of Accounting Research, 5 (1),135-145. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJAR-10-2019-0080
  • Klein, N. (2013). Non-performing loans in CESEE: Determinants and macroeconomic Performance. IMF Working Paper, WP/13/72, 1-26.
  • Li, Z., & Lai. R.N. (2024). Are “too big to fail” banks just different in size? – A study on systemic risk and stand-alone risk. International Review of Financial Analysis, 93, 1-23.
  • Mamonov, M.E. (2013). Bad management, skimping, or both? The relationship between cost efficiency and loan quality in Russian banks. Basic Research Program Working Paper, Series: Financial Economics WP BRP 19/FE/2013, 1-43.
  • Maseke, B. F., & Swartz, E. M. (2021). Risk Management Impact on Non-Performing Loans and Profitability in the Namibian Banking Sector. Open Access Library Journal, 8, e6943. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1106943
  • Kryzanowski, L. Liu, J., & Zhang, J. (2023). Effect of COVID-19 on non-performing loans in China. Finance Research Letters, 52, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103372
  • Messai, A.S., & Jouini, F. (2013). Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-performing Loans. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), 852-860.
  • Nkusu, M. (2011). Nonperforming loans and macrofinancial vulnerabilities in advanced economies. IMF Working Paper, No 11/161.
  • OECD Report. (2021). The COVID-19 crisis and banking system resilience: Simulation of losses on non-performing loans and policy implications, 1-52.
  • Park, C.Y., & Shin, K. (2021). COVID-19, nonperforming loans, and cross-border bank lending. Journal of Banking & Finance, 133, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106233
  • Plikas, J.H., Kenourgios, D., & Savvakis, G.A. (2024). COVID-19 and non-performing loans in Europe. Risk Financial Management, 17(7), 1-38. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17070271
  • Ranjan, R., & Dhal, S.C. (2003). Non-performing loans and terms of credit of public sector banks in India: An empirical assessment. Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 24(3), 81-121. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2016.64042
  • Reddy, Y.V. (2004). Credit policy, systems, and culture. Reserve Bank of India Bulletin, 303-311. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.843836
  • Sahbaz, N., & Inkaya, I. (2010). Türk bankacılık sektöründe sorunlu krediler ve makroekonomik etkileri. Optimum Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 1(1), 69-82.
  • Skarica, B. (2014). Determinants of non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries. Financial Theory and Practice, 38(1), 37-59. https://doi.org/10.3326/fintp.38.1.2
  • Toksoy, T. (2024). Makroekonomik göstergelerin takipteki banka kredileri üzerindeki etkisi: Avrupa bölgesi ülkeleri için ampirik bir inceleme. Scientific Journal of Innovation and Social Sciences Research, 4(2), 130-140.
  • Tölö, E., Jokivuolle, E., & Viren, M. (2021). Have too-big-to-fail expectations diminished? Evidence from the European overnight interbank market. Journal of Financial Services Research, 60, 25-54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-021-00351-2
  • Us, V. (2020). A panel VAR approach on analyzing non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector. 14(1), Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets,1-38. https://doi.org/10.46520/bddkdergisi.789935
  • Vardar, G., & Özgüler, İ.C. (2015). Short term and long term linkages among nonperforming loans, macroeconomic and bank specific factors: An empirical analysis for Turkey. Ege Academic Review, 15 (3), 313-325.
  • Wang, K. (2019). Comparative analysis of business management of Chinese and foreign commercial banks—Based on the perspective of non-performing loans of commercial banks. Modern Economy, 10, 108-119. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2019.101008
  • Žunić, A., Kozarić, K., & Dželihodžić, E.Z. (2021). Non-performing loan determinants and impact of COVID-19: Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 3, 5-22. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0021
Toplam 41 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Finans
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Serpil Tomak 0000-0002-2092-1582

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 27 Mart 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi
Gönderilme Tarihi 5 Eylül 2024
Kabul Tarihi 5 Mart 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Tomak, S. (2025). Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Turkish Deposit Banks. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 658-677. https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.1544203

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ESBD Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi (Electronic Journal of Social Sciences), Türk Patent ve Marka Kurumu tarafından tescil edilmiştir. Marka No:2011/119849.