NİJERYA’DA ‘20 YILLIK’ DEMOKRASİNİN NİTELİĞİ: OTORİTERLİKTEN DEMOKRATİK MELEZLİĞE DOĞRU MU?

Öz

Nijerya’daki rejim türü çoğu zaman literatürde tartışmalı bir konu olmuştur. Nijerya Cumhuriyetinin daha önce ‘belirsiz’ olarak sınıflandırılmış olması bu makalenin çıkış noktasını oluşturmaktadır. Nijerya, Dördüncü Cumhuriyet döneminde demokratikleşme sürecine dahil olmuş ve rejim türünün melezliği incelemeye değer bir konu olagelmiştir. Dolayısıyla bu makale, Nijerya’daki demokrasinin kalitesini sorunsallaştırarak demokratik ve otoriter yönetim biçimleri arasındaki geçirgen bağı göstermeyi amaçlamıştır. Bu minvalde çalışma, söz konusu süreçlerin durağan değil, daha ziyade iç içe geçmiş olduğunu vurgulamaktadır. Bu makale Nijerya’daki rejim tipinin otoriter ve liberal ilkelerin bir melezi olduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Ancak Dördüncü Cumhuriyet döneminde melezliğin derecesi değişiklik göstermiştir. Bu gelişmeler ışığında, bu makale Nijerya’da demokrasinin 2011-2015 yılları arasında demokratik spektrumun otoriter ucundan liberal ucuna kadar gelişiminin nedenlerine odaklanmaktadır. Çalışma, karşılaştırmalı ve betimleyici analiz biçiminde nitel yöntemler kullanmaktadır. Veriler, Freedom House ve Afrobarometer’in yanı sıra Nijerya’nın demokratikleşmesi ve melez (hibrit) rejimleri hakkında gelişmekte olan literatürden alınmıştır. Dördüncü Nijerya Cumhuriyeti’ni mevcut rejim tipolojileri bağlamına yerleştirmeyi amaçlayan bu makale, Nijerya demokrasisinin melez doğasını ve rekabetçi otoriterlik içindeki konumunu göstermek için Linz ve Stepan’ın sivil ve siyasi toplumlara ilişkin demokratik göstergelerinden yararlanmaktadır. Bu makale, Diamond ve Carothers’ın Nijerya örneğine ilişkin daha önceki teorisinin ötesine geçmeyi amaçlamıştır. Ülkede özellikle 2015 seçimlerinde çok partili seçim rekabetinin gerçek bir olgu olduğunu ve Nijerya demokrasisinin çoğunlukla verimsizliğin ve siyasal toplumun uygun şekilde kullanılmamasının sonucu olması nedeniyle iktidar değişimine yol açtığını ileri sürmektedir. Dolayısıyla melez rejimler, kabaca yarı demokrasi veya demokrasi dışı olarak tanımlanamaz. Zira melez rejimlerin derinlemesine inceleme gerektiren kendine özgü özellik ve hibrit yörüngeleri vard

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Nijerya
• melez rejimler
• demokrasi
• seçimler
• partiler ve muhalefet
• rekabetçi otoriterlik
• etnik-dinsel ayrışmalar

THE QUALITY OF ‘20-YEAR-OLD’ DEMOCRACY IN NIGERIA: FROM AUTHORITARIAN TO DEMOCRATIC HYBRIDITY?

Öz

The regime-type in Nigeria has been a controversial in scholarly discussions. This article draws its meaning from the earlier classifications of the case of the Nigerian Republic as ‘ambiguous’. The path towards democratization in the Fourth Republic of Nigeria is an ongoing process, and it is worth scrutinizing its regime hybridity. This article, thus, problematizes the quality of democracy in Nigeria and illustrates the permeable nexus between democratic and authoritarian forms of governance, emphasizing that these processes are not stagnant, but rather intertwined. In this regard, this article argues that the regime-type in Nigeria is a hybrid of authoritarian and liberal principles. However, the degree of hybridity varied during the Fourth Republic. In light of this, this article focuses on the reasons for the improvement of democracy in Nigeria from the authoritarian to the liberal end of the democratic spectrum between 2011 and 2015. The study employs qualitative methods in the form of comparative and descriptive analysis. Data is drawn from Freedom House and Afrobarometer, as well as the growing literature on Nigerian democratization and hybrid regimes. With the aim of placing the Fourth Republic of Nigeria in the context of current regime typologies, this article utilizes the democratic indicators of Linz and Stepan regarding civil and political societies to demonstrate the hybrid nature of Nigerian democracy, and its location within competitive authoritarianism. This contradicts the earlier theory of the Nigerian case proposed by Diamond and Carothers’. This paper argues that multiparty electoral competition in Nigeria, especially in the 2015 elections, was real and led to power alternation as Nigerian democracy is mostly the result of inefficiency and a lack of the proper utilisation of political society. Hence, hybrid regimes cannot be simply described as semi- or pseudo-democracies; rather, each has a unique character and trajectory of regime hybridity, which calls for an in-depth analysis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Nigeria
• hybrid regimes
• democracy
• elections
• parties and opposition
• competitive authoritarianism
• ethno-religious cleavages

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