TURİZM ÇIKTISININ TAHMİNİNDE OPTİMUM DEĞİŞKEN SEÇİMİ: EKONOMİK, ÇEVRESEL, TARİHSEL VE ​​ALTYAPISAL FAKTÖRLERİN MODELLEMESİ

Öz

Şimdiye kadar turizm olgusuna iktisadi perspektifle yaklaşan birçok çalışma bulunmakla birlikte, bu çalışmaların büyük kısmında çevresel, tarihi ve altyapısal faktörler yok sayılmaktadır. Çalışma turizm talebinin gerçekleşmesinde rol oynayan tüm faktörleri modele dahil ederek oluşturulabilecek en optimal regresyonu oluşturmayı amaçlamaktadır. Ampirik süreçte ekonometrik metodolojiye uygun olarak istatistik paket programların algoritmalarından faydalanılmaktadır. Örneklemi panel veri kümesi oluştururken, zaman 2014’ten 2021’e uzanmaktadır. Yatay kesiti ise Muğla’nın ilçeleri oluşturmaktadır. Önce turizm ile en ilişkili değişkenler tespit edilir, sonrasında gözlemlenemeyen heterojenitenin varlığı araştırılmaktadır. Sonrasında ise forward-stepwised metot ile en anlamlı katsayılara sahip değişkenler modele eklenmektedir. Çalışmanın ekonometrik bulguları ise çok şaşırtıcı olmamakla birlikte hipotetik olarak doğru kabul edilebilecek bazı hipotezleri de reddetmektedir. Nitekim, bir önceki yılın yabancı ziyaretçi sayısı ve zamana özgü kukla değişkenlerden (COVID-19 kısıtlamaları ve pandemi sonrası normalleşme) sonra en yüksek katsayıların çevresel değişkenlere ait olduğu görülmektedir. Tarihi ve kültürel derinliği oldukça fazla olan, MÖ 2000’lerden 1280 yılına kadar Karya Uygarlığına, Leleglere, Perslere, Helenistik döneme, Romalılara ve Bizanslılara ev sahipliği yapmıştır. Sonrasında kurulan Menteşe Beyliği ile Türk egemenliğine girmiş tarihi ve kültürel olarak zengin bir destinasyondur. Ancak turistlerin talep faktörleri arasında tarihi unsurlar önemli bir yer tutmamaktadır. Sebebi, mevcut tarihi varlığın etkin pazarlanamaması olabilir. Ampirik sonuçlar, bir önceki yılki ziyaretçi sayısının, sahip olunan mavi bayraklı plajların ve orman yoğunluğunun turizm talebi unsurlarında ön plana çıkan çevresel faktörler olduğunu göstermektedir. Altyapı değişkenlerinin de turizm talebine tesir eden unsurlardan biri olduğuna dair bulgular bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm talebi
• çevresel faktörler
• optimal değişkenler
• optimal regresyon

REMODELING TOURISM DEMAND USING OPTIMAL PREDICTORS: THE CASE OF MUĞLA

Öz

Although there have been many studies that have approached the tourism phenomenon from an economic perspective, most of these studies ignore environmental, historical and infrastructural factors. The study aims to create the most optimal regression that can be created by including all the factors that play a role in the realization of tourism demand in the model. In the empirical process, algorithms of statistical package programs are used in accordance with the econometric methodology. While the sample is a panel dataset, the time period extends from 2014 to 2021. The horizontal section consists of the districts of Muğla. First, the variables most related to tourism are determined, then the existence of unobserved heterogeneity is investigated. The variables with the most significant coefficients are added to the model with the forward-stepwised method. The econometric findings of the study are not very surprising, but they also reject some hypotheses that can be considered hypothetically correct. As a matter of fact, it is seen that the highest coefficients after the lagged foreign visitor and time-specific dummy variables (COVID-19 restrictions and post-pandemic normalization) belong to the environmental variables. Having a great historical and cultural depth, it hosted the Carian Civilization, Lelegians, Persians, Hellenistic Period, Romans and Byzantines from 2000 BC to 1280 BC. It is a historically and culturally rich destination that came under Turkish sovereignty with the establishment of Menteşe Principality. However, historical elements do not have an important place among the demand factors of tourists. The reason may be the ineffective marketing of the existing historical assets. Empirical results show that number of visitors in the previous year, the blue flag beaches and forest density are the environmental factors that stand out in tourism demand elements. There are also findings that infrastructure variables are one of the factors affecting tourism demand.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism demand
• environmental factors
• optimal variables
• optimal regression

Kaynakça

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