ORTA ASYA’DA ARTAN ÇİN ETKİSİ: RUS HAKİMİYETİ SONA ERECEK Mİ?

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 1 - 18, 30.04.2025

Mustafa Karakaya

Öz

Bu makale, 1991-2025 yılları arasında Çin'in Orta Asya'daki etkinliğini artırmak için izlediği politikaları ortaya çıkarmayı ve Çin'in bu çabasının bölgede uzun süredir devam eden Rus hakimiyetine bir meydan okuma olup olmadığını araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Makale, SSCB'nin dağılmasından bu yana Çin'in siyasi, ekonomik, diplomatik, askeri ve ticari faaliyetler yoluyla Orta Asya'da etkisini önemli ölçüde artırdığını öne sürmektedir. Bununla birlikte, Çin’in bu politikalarının amacı Orta Asya'daki Rus hegemonyasına meydan okumak değil, Rusya ile bir yük paylaşımı yapmaktır. Makalede, Rusya ve Çin'in bir rekabet içerisinde değil bir işbirliğinde içerisinde oldukları; Orta Asya'da olası bir Batı etkisini önlemek, terörizm, etnik ayrılıkçılık ve dini aşırıcılık gibi tehditlere karşı bölgede güvenlik ve istikrarı sağlamak ve iyi ilişkiler içinde oldukları seküler rejimlerin iktidarda kalmasına yardımcı olmak için birbirlerine ihtiyaç duydukları ileri sürülmektedir. Ayrıca, söz konusu Çin-Rusya dayanışması Rusya'nın Orta Asya'da güçlü bir aktör olarak kalmasını engellememiştir. Çin, Şanghay İşbirliği Örgütü gibi uluslararası örgütler, yatırımlar, boru hattı projeleri ve Kuşak Yol İnisiyatifi gibi gibi araçlarla bölgedeki etkinliğini artırmış olsa da; Rusya özellikle Avrasya Ekonomik Birliği ve Kolektif Güvenlik Antlaşması Örgütü aracılığıyla Orta Asya’da kontrolünü devam ettirdiği için hala belirleyici bir güçtür. Sunulan bilgilerin ışığında, makale Çin-Rus işbirliği bu iki ülkenin yukarıda bahsedilen hedeflere ulaşmalarında bugüne dek işe yaradığından, Çin ve Rusya arasında Orta Asya’da yakın gelecekte Çin’in yükselişinden kaynaklanan bir çatışmanın görünmediği sonucuna varmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Orta Asya , Rusya , Çin , Çin-Rusya dayanışması , Kuşak ve Yol İnisiyatifi

CHINA'S GROWING PRESENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA: WILL RUSSIA'S DOMINANCE COME TO AN END?

Öz

This article aims to explore what policies China has followed to enhance its presence over Central Asia from 1991 to 2025 and to inquire whether China is to challenge the longstanding Russian domination in the region. The article suggests that, since the dissolution of the USSR, China has been carrying out political, economic, diplomatic, military, and commercial activities in Central Asia, which has dramatically increased its influence over the region. However, China’s objective in these policies is not to challenge the Russian hegemony in Central Asia, but to make a burden-sharing with Russia. It is argued in the article that Russia and China are not in a competition, but in a cooperation as they need each other to prevent any Western influence in Central Asia, to provide security and stability over the region against threats like ethnic separatism, religious extremism, and terrorism, and to help the friendly secular regimes to stay in power. Moreover, this Sino-Russian cooperation has not stopped Russia from staying as a strong actor in Central Asia. Though China has enhanced its presence in the region through various tools such as international organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, investments, pipeline projects, and the Belt and Road Initiative; Russia is still a determining power as it enjoys control especially through the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. In the light of the information presented, the article concludes that, between China and Russia, no conflict stemming from China’s rising power is visible in the near future in Central Asia as the Sino-Russian cooperation has been useful so far for these two countries to attain the aforementioned goals.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Central Asia , Russia , China , Sino-Russian cooperation , Belt and Road Initiative

Kaynakça

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