İstatistiksel Verilerle Deprem Sonrası Suçların Analizi: Kahramanmaraş Depremlerinden Elde Edilen Bulgular

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 120 Ek, 1369 - 1388, 15.12.2024

Ayşe Mahinur Tezcan , A. Veronika İnan

https://doi.org/10.22559/folklor.3795

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı depremler vb. doğal afetler sonrasında ortaya çıkan
sosyal düzensizlik ortamının neticesinde suç oranlarında nasıl bir değişim
olduğunu anlamaya çalışmaktır. Bu çalışma özellikle 6 Şubat 2023 tarihinde
meydana gelen Kahramanmaraş merkezli depremlerden en fazla etkilenen beş
il olan Adıyaman, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kahramanmaraş ve Malatya’daki ve tüm
Türkiye genelindeki suç oranlarının deprem öncesi döneme göre nasıl bir değişim
yaşadığını analiz etmektedir. Doğal afetler sonrasındaki suç davranışlarının
açıklanmasında sıklıkla kullanılan rutin aktivite, sosyal düzensizlik ve teröpetik
topluluk teorilerinden faydalanarak Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Adalet Bakanlığı’ndan
elde edilen verileri analiz ettik. On sekiz ayrı suç türüne ait elde ettiğimiz verileri
mala karşı suçlar, cana karşı suçlar ve cinsel suçlar olarak sınıflandırdık. Rutin
faaliyet teorisi ve sosyal düzensizlik teorisi afet sonrası suç oranlarındaki artışı
açıklamaya çalışırken, terapötik topluluk teorisi azalan suç oranlarının deprem
öncesi sosyal düzeni yeniden tesis etmeyi amaçlayan sosyal dayanışmadan
kaynaklandığını öne sürmektedir. Nicel desende betimleyici, açıklayıcı ve
karşılaştırmalı analiz tekniğini kullandık. Deprem öncesi ve deprem sonrası
olarak iki temel döneme ayırdık. Depremin hemen ertesinde ve geç dönemde suç
davranışlarının durumunu analiz edebilmek maksadıyla deprem sonrası dönemi
erken, geç ve yekpare olarak sınıflandırdık. Suç çeşitleri, dönemler ve iller
arasında bir karşılaştırma yaptık. Yaptığımız analiz neticesinde Kahramanmaraş
depremi sonrası suç oranlarının döneme ve suç çeşidine göre farklılaştığı
sonucuna ulaştık. Buna göre, erken dönemde tüm suçlarda azalma, geç dönemde
tüm suçlarda artış ve yekpare dönemde hayata karşı işlenen suçlar dışındaki
suçlarda azalma olduğu ortaya çıktı. Sonuçlar, deprem sonrası erken dönemde
suç oranlarındaki azalmanın terapötik topluluk etkisine atfedilebileceğini, geç
dönemdeki artışın ise gecikmiş bir etki olarak rutin faaliyet teorisiyle uyumlu
olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

suç, terapötik topluluk, rutin aktivite, sosyal düzensizlik, deprem

Analysing Post-earthquake Crime through Statistical Data: Findings from the Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes

Öz

This study analyses the occurrence of crimes in earthquake-affected regions, with
a particular focus on the aftermath of the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Drawing
on routine activity theory, social disorganization theory, and therapeutic
community theory, utilizing data sourced from the Turkish Ministry of Justice,
this study aims to identify the types of crimes in earthquake-affected regions and
examine the dynamics of their fluctuating trends, including increases and
decreases. In this study, we employed a quantitative research design, utilizing
descriptive, explanatory, and comparative analysis methods. The statistical data
includes eighteen different types of crimes, which we have divided into theree
main categories: property crimes, crimes against life and sexual crimes. By
dividing the period into pre-earthquake and post-earthquake periods (early,
late, and entire), the study compares rates of different types of crimes to
determine variations and underlying reasons. Routine activity theory and social
disorganization theory attempt to explain the increase in crime rates following
disasters by highlighting disruptions in societal structures and daily routines.
Alternatively, therapeutic community theory suggests that decreased crime
rates can be attributed to social solidarity aiming to restore the pre-earthquake
social order. The results indicate that the decrease in crime rates during a
postearthquake period can be attributed to the therapeutic community effect, while
the subsequent rise in crime rates aligns with routine activity theory as a
delayed effect. We conclude that crime rates following the Kahramanmaraş
earthquake changed in different periods and according to crime types. Crime
rates initially decreased across all categories in the early period, increased in
all crimes during the late period, while there was a general decline in crimes
other than crimes against life over the entire period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

crime rate, therapeutic community, routine activity, social disorder, earthguake

Etik Beyan

Author contributions: First author 50%, Second Author 50%. Ethical committee approval: No ethical committee approval is required for this study. Financial support: This study has not received any financial support. Conflict of interest: There are no potential conflict of interest in this study. Acknowledgements: We would like to thank the Judicial Records and Statistics General Directorate for their valuable support and contribution in providing the statistical data used in this study.

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