TÜRK REEL SEKTÖR FİRMALARINDA KREDİ RİSKİNİN MİKRO VE MAKRO BELİRLEYİCİLERİ ÜZERİNE EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı, firmaya özgü değişkenlerin ve makro ekonomik değişkenlerin Türk reel sektör firmalarının kredi riski üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Bu bağlamda makroekonomik veriler ile Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) tarafından yayımlanan sektör bilançoları istatistiklerinde yer alan 17 sektöre ait finansal tablo ve risk verileri kullanılmıştır. 2016-2021 dönemine ilişkin yıllık veriler doğrusal panel veri yöntemleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, alacak devir hızı, nakit oran, özsermaye kârlılığı ve enflasyon oranı değişkenlerinin kredi riski üzerindeki etkisinin negatif, kısa vadeli borç/toplam borç oranı, döviz kuru ve faiz oranı değişkenlerinin kredi riski üzerindeki etkisinin pozitif olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kredi Riski
• Reel Sektör
• Panel Veri Modelleri

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON THE MICRO AND MACRO DETERMINANTS OF CREDIT RISK IN TURKISH REAL SECTOR FIRMS

Öz

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of firm specific and macroeconomic variables on the credit risk of Turkish real sector firms. In this context, financial statements and risk data of 17 sectors in the company accounts statistics published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) and macroeconomic data were used. Annual data for the period 2016-2021 were analyzed using linear panel data methods. Analysis results indicate that receivables turnover, cash ratio, return on equity and inflation rate have a negative effect on credit risk, but short term debt/total debt ratio, exchange rate and interest rate have a positive effect.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Credit Risk
• Real Sector
• Panel Data Models

Kaynakça

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