BİREYSEL YATIRIM KARARLARINDA BİLİŞSEL ÖNYARGILAR İLE ÜLKENİN KÜLTÜREL BOYUTLARI ARASINDAKİ ETKİLEŞİM

Öz

Karar verme sürecini etkileyen birçok fiziksel, psikolojik ve sosyal faktör vardır. Bu süreç üzerinde etkili olan sübjektif bilişsel faktörlere bilişsel önyargılar denir. Bilişsel önyargılar, insanların karar vermedeki nesnel davranışlarını etkileyerek doğru kararlar vermelerini engelleyebilmektedir. Bu durum özellikle finansal yatırım kararlarında ön plana çıkmakta ve çeşitli bilişsel önyargılar nedeniyle yatırımcılar optimal karar vermekten uzaklaşmaktadır. Kültür, bir ülkede yaşayan insanların yaşam biçimleri ve düşünceleri üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahiptir. Ülkenin kültürel özellikleri farklı bilişsel önyargıların öne çıkmasında etkili olabilir. Bu çalışmada kültürün boyutları ile bilişsel önyargılar arasındaki ilişki Türkiye'deki bireysel finansal yatırımlar açısından incelenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bilişsel Önyargı
• Bireysel Yatırım Kararları
• Kültür

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN COGNITIVE BIASES AND THE CULTURAL DIMENSIONS OF THE COUNTRY IN INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS

Öz

There are many physical, psychological, and social factors that have an impact on the decision-making process. Subjective cognitive factors that affect this process are called cognitive biases. Cognitive biases can impede people from making the right decisions by affecting their objective behavior in decision-making. This situation comes to the fore, especially in financial investment decisions and investors move away from making optimal decisions due to various cognitive biases. Culture has a significant impact on the way of life and thinking of people living in a country. The cultural characteristics of the country may have an impact on the prominence of different cognitive biases. In this study, the relationship between cultural dimensions and cognitive biases was examined in terms of individual financial investments in Türkiye.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cognitive Bias
• Personal Investment Decisions
• Culture

Kaynakça

1. ALNORI, F., & AHMAD, M. U. (2022). Herd Mentality Amongst Equity Investors During COVID-19: Evidences from Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 12(4), 40–46. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.13192
2. AMERICAN PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION (2023) APA Dictionary of Psychology, Overconfidence, https://dictionary.apa.org/overconfidence, Accessed at: 03.20.2023.
3. ANDERSEN, J. V. (2010). Detecting anchoring in financial markets. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 11(2), 129-133. ARORA, M., & KUMARI, S. (2015). Risk taking in financial decisions as a function of age, gender: mediating role of loss aversion and regret. International Journal of Applied Psychology, 5(4), 83-89.
4. BIKHCHANDANI S. & SHARMA S. (2000) Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: A review, IMF Working Paper, WP/00/48.
5. BILEK, J., Nedoma, J., & Jirásek, M. (2018). Representativeness heuristics: A literature review of its impacts on the quality of decision-making. Scientific papers of the University of Pardubice. Series D, Faculty of Economics and Administration. 43/2018.
6. BOUSSAIDI, R. (2013). Representativeness heuristic, investor sentiment and overreaction to accounting earnings: The case of the Tunisian stock market. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 81, 9-21.
7. CAFFERATA, A., & TRAMONTANA, F. (2019). A financial market model with confirmation bias. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 51, 252-259.
8. CBRT EVDS Data Central (2023) https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket/collapse_4/ 5899/DataGroup/turkish/bie_kmmbgmv/ Accessed at: 09.28.2023.

9. CEN, L., HILARY, G., & WEI, K. J. (2013). The role of anchoring bias in the equity market: Evidence from analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 48(1), 47-76.
10. CHAKRABORTY, A. (2021). Present bias. Econometrica, 89(4), 1921-1961.
11. CHIN, P. N., CH’NG, K. S., & ISA, S. M. (2018). The effect of self-serving bias on trading decisions and its solution mechanisms: An experimental study. Global Business and Management Research: An International Journal, 10(1), 67-81.
12. CHONG, F. N. (2011). Representative heuristics and the aftermarket dynamic of the new listings in Malaysia. Labuan Bulletin of International Business and Finance (LBIBF), 9, 1-11.
13. DANG, H. V., & LIN, M. (2016). Herd mentality in the stock market: On the role of idiosyncratic participants with heterogeneous information. International Review of Financial Analysis, 48, 247-260.
14. DUONG, C., PESCETTO, G., & SANTAMARIA, D. (2014). How value–glamour investors use financial information: UK evidence of investors’ confirmation bias. The European Journal of Finance, 20(6), 524–549. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847x.2012.722117.
15. GAL, D., & RUCKER, D. D. (2018). The loss of loss aversion: Will it loom larger than its gain?. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 28(3), 497-516.
16. GIANINAZZI, V. (2019). Framing bias in mortgage refinancing decisions and monetary policy pass-through. Working paper, Nova School of Business and Economics.
17. GRAY, S. J. (1988). Towards a Theory of Cultural Influence on the Development of Accounting Systems Internationally, Abacus. Vol. 24, p. 1-16.
18. HOFSTEDE, G. (1980). Culture and organizations. International studies of management & organization, 10(4), p.6.
19. HOFSTEDE G. & ASSOCIATES. (1998) Masculinity and Femininity: The Taboo Dimensions of National Cultures, Sage Publications.
20. HOFSTEDE G.J., JONKER C. & VERWAART T. (2008) Modeling Culture in Trade: Uncertainty Avoidance, Agent-Directed Simulation Symposium (ADS'08), part of the 2008 Spring Simulation Multiconference (SpringSim'08), April 14-17, 2008, Ottawa, Canada.
21. HOFSTEDE INSIGHTS (2023) Country Comparison Tool, https://www.hofstede-insights.com/country-comparison-tool?countries=Türkiye, Accessed at 10.05.2023.
22. HOFSTEDE, G. (2001). Culture’s Consequences, second edition. Sage Publications, p.161.
23. HOFSTEDE, G., & BOND, M. H. (1988). The Confucius connection: From cultural roots to economic growth. Organizational dynamics, 16(4), 5-21.
24. HOFSTEDE, G., HOFSTEDE, G. J., & MINKOV, M. (2010). Cultures and organizations: Intercultural Cooperation and its importance for survival. New York: The McGraw-Hill Companies.
25. HOLLIDAY A. (2017) Top 50 List of Cognitive Biases in Trading, https://capital.com/top-50-cognitive-biases-list, Accessed at 03.04.2023.
26. HÖLZL, E., KIRCHLER, E., & RODLER, C. (2002). Hindsight bias in economic expectations: I knew all along what I want to hear. Journal of Applied Psychology, 87(3), 437–443. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.87.3.437
27. HUR, J., & SINGH, V. (2019). How do disposition effect and anchoring bias interact to impact momentum in stock returns?. Journal of Empirical Finance, 53, 238-256.
28. JOHNSON, S. G., & TUCKETT, D. (2022). Narrative expectations in financial forecasting. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 35(1), e2245.
29. KAHNEMAN, D. (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
30. KAUSTIA, M., ALHO, E., & PUTTONEN, V. (2008). How much does expertise reduce behavioral biases? The case of anchoring effects in stock return estimates. Financial Management, 37(3), 391-412.
31. KIYILAR M. & AKKAYA M. (2016) Davranışsal Finans, Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul, p.270.
32. KIM U. (2001) Individualism and Collectivism: A psychological, cultural and ecological analysis, Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, NIAS Report Series No: 21.
33. KOLEŚNIK, Katarzyna (2013) : The role of culture in accounting in the light of Hofstede's, Gray's and Schwartz's cultural dimensions theories: A literature review, eFinanse: Financial Internet Quarterly, ISSN 1734-039X, University of Information Technology and Management, Rzeszów, Vol. 9, Iss. 3, pp. 33-41.
34. KUBILAY, B., & BAYRAKDAROGLU, A. (2016). An empirical research on investor biases in financial decision-making, financial risk tolerance and financial personality. International Journal of Financial Research, 7(2), 171-182.
35. KUNST, M. J. J., & VAN DE WIEL, M.. (2016). Evaluating the Reliability of Expert Evidence in Compensation Procedures: Are Diagnosticians Influenced by the Narrative Fallacy when Assessing the Psychological Injuries of Trauma Victims?. Psychological Injury and Law, 9(3), 265–271. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12207-016-9263-5
36. LIBERTO D. (2022) Loss Aversion: Definition, Risks in Trading, and How to Minimize, Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/loss-psychology.asp, Accessed at 06.23.2023
37. LUO, G. Y. (2013). Can representativeness heuristic traders survive in a competitive securities market?. Journal of Financial Markets, 16(1), 152-164.
38. MANIADIS Z., TUFANO F. & LIST J.A (2014). One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects, American Economic Review, 104 (1): 277-90.
39. MERKLE, C. (2020). Financial loss aversion illusion. Review of Finance, 24(2), 381-413.
40. MONTI, M., & LEGRENZI, P. (2009). Investment decision-making and hindsight bias. Retrieved January 5, 2014.
41. MOOSA, I. A., RAMIAH, V., MOOSA, I. A., & RAMIAH, V. (2017). Overconfidence and self-serving bias. The Financial consequences of behavioural biases: An analysis of bias in corporate finance and financial planning, PalGrave-McMillan, pp.45-69.
42. PARK J., KONANA P., GU, B., KUMAR A. & RAGHUNATHAN R. (2010), Confirmation Bias, Overconfidence, and Investment Performance: Evidence from Stock Message Boards (July 12, 2010). McCombs Research Paper Series No. IROM-07-10, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1639470
43. ROESE, N. J., & VOHS, K. D. (2012). Hindsight bias. Perspectives on psychological science, 7(5), 411-426.
44. RUBALTELLI, E., RUBICHI, S., SAVADORI, L., TEDESCHI, M., & FERRETTI, R. (2005). Numerical information format and investment decisions: Implications for the disposition effect and the status quo bias. The Journal of Behavioral Finance, 6(1), 19-26.
45. SACHAN, A., & CHUGAN, P. K. (2021). Relationship between Framing Bias and Big Five Personality Traits of Individual Investors. Towards Excellence: An Indexed, Refereed & Peer Reviewed Journal of Higher Education, Gujarat University, Ahmedabad, 13, 665-676.
46. SCHULTZ, P. W., UNIPAN, J. B., & GAMBA, R. J. (2000). Acculturation and ecological worldview among Latino Americans. The Journal of Environmental Education, 31(2), 22-27.
47. SCHWARTZ, S. H. (1994). Beyond Individualism–Collectivism: New Cultural Dimensions of Values. In U. Kim, H. C. Triandis, C. Kagitcibasi, S-C. Choi, G. Yoon (Ed.), Individualism and Collectivism: Theory, Method and Applications (p. 85–119). London: Sage.
48. SCOTT G. (2022) Confirmation Bias: Overview and Types and Impact, Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/confirmation-bias.asp, Accessed at: 03.04.2023.
49. SCOTT, J., STUMPP, M., & XU, P. (2003). Overconfidence bias in international stock prices. The journal of portfolio management, 29(2), 80-89.
50. SEILER, M., SEILER, V., TRAUB, & HARRISON, D.. (2008). Familiarity Bias and the Status Quo Alternative, Journal of Housing Research, 17:2, 139-154, DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2008.12091988
51. SHUKLA, S., TRIPATHI, A. R., KUMAR SHUKLA, S., & SHUKLA, A. (2022). The Impact of Self-Serving Bias on Selection of Stocks by Retail Investors in Equity Market: A Study of the Urban Middle Class of India. European Journal of Business and Management Research, 7(3), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2022.7.3.1400
52. SOLOMON M. (2018) Consumer Behavior: Buying, Having and Being, Global 12th ed. Pearson Inc.
53. STATMAN, M., THORLEY, S., & VORKINK, K. (2006). Investor overconfidence and trading volume. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(4), 1531-1565.
54. STROUGH, J., MEHTA, C. M., MCFALL, J. P., & SCHULLER, K. L. (2008). Are older adults less subject to the sunk-cost fallacy than younger adults?. Psychological Science, 19(7), 650-652.
55. TALEB, N. N. (2010). The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable. 2nd ed., Random trade pbk. ed. New York, Random House Trade Paperbacks.
56. TÜRK DIL KURUMU, Güncel Türkçe Sözlük, https://sozluk.gov.tr/, Accessed at: 16.05.2023
57. VENKATAPATHY, R., & SULTANA, A. H. (2016). Behavioural finance: heuristics in investment decisions. TEJAS Thiagarajar College Journal, 1(2), 35-44.
58. VIPOND T. (2019) Cognitive Bias, Corporate Finance Institute Web Site, https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/capital-markets/list-top-10-types-cognitive-bias/, Accessed at: 03.04.2023.
59. YANG, L, (2019) Loss Aversion in Financial Markets, Journal of Mechanism and Institution Design, 4(1), 119 –137.
60. YIEND, J., ANDRÉ, J., SMITH, L., CHEN, L. H., TOULOPOULOU, T., CHEN, E., ... & PARKINSON, B. (2019). Biased cognition in East Asian and Western cultures. Plos one, 14(10), e0223358.