ALMAN OTOMOBİL ENDÜSTRİSİ: BRENT PETROL VE ÇELİK'İN FİNANSAL ETKİLERİ

Öz

Otomobil sektörü iki önemli kaynaktan beslenmektedir; çelik ve petrol. Bu nedenle çelik ve petrol endüstrilerinin mali yapısı hem otomotiv endüstrisi hem de sanayileşen dünya açısından büyük önem taşımaktadır. Dünya çelik pazarını anlamak için, dünya çelik liderliği olarak Çin çelik pazarına odaklanılmıştır. Bu makale, DCC GARCH (Dinamik Koşullu Korelasyon Çok Değişkenli GARCH) modellerini kullanarak bu üç sektörün finansal analizini yapmayı amaçlamaktadır. Ana bulgulara göre, Alman otomobil sektörünün mali yapısı büyük ölçüde Brent petrol getirilerinden etkilenmektedir. Çin çelik vadeli işlemlerinin getirilerinin, Alman otomobil markalarının getirileri üzerindeki etkisine dair istatistiksel bir kanıt bulunmamaktadır. Bu bulgular, Alman otomobil endüstrisinin çelik dalgalanmalarına ancak petrol dalgalanmalarına karşı mali bağışıklığa sahip olduğu anlamına gelebilir. Bu bağlamda Almanya'nın uluslararası ekonomi politikasının önemlidir. Diğer taraftan Alman otomobil devleri ve onların Çinli iştirakleriyle olan ilişkileri de sonucun bir başka parçası olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Alman Otomobil Endüstrisi
• Brent Petrol
• Çelik

GERMAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY: THE FINANCIAL IMPACTS OF BRENT OIL AND STEEL

Öz

The automobile industry is nourished by two important resources: steel and oil. For this reason, the financial structure of the steel and oil industries is so important for the sake of the automobile industry and also the industrializing world. To understand the world steel market, we should concentrate on the Chinese steel market as its world steel leadership. This paper aims to make a financial analysis of these three industries by utilising DCC GARCH (Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH) models. According to the main results, the German automobile industry’s financial structure is largely impacted by Brent oil returns. There is no statistical evidence of the impact of the Chinese steel futures’ returns on the returns of German automobile brands in a relationship. These findings can mean that the German automobile industry has financial immunisation against steel fluctuations but oil fluctuations. In this context, the international politics of Germany is so important, on the other side, German automobile giants and their relationships with Chinese affiliates can be another part of the conclusion.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• German Automobile Industry
• Brent Oil
• Steel

Kaynakça

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