AVRUPA PİYASALARINDA DOĞAL GAZ FİYATININ PETROL FİYATI İLE İLİŞKİSİ – SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

Bu çalışma, bağımsız bir doğalgaz fiyatının varlığını araştırmaktadır. İnceleme konusu olarak Avrupa pazarları ele alınmıştır. Doğal gaz fiyatının petrol fiyatından ayrışmasının varlığı incelenmiş, doğal gaz fiyatı olarak Almanya Federal İhracat Kontrol Ofisi (BAFA) tarafından açıklanan aylık ortalama sınır giriş fiyatı, petrol fiyatı olarak ise aylık ortalama Brent petrolü fiyatı kullanılmıştır. Serilerin eşbütünleşikliği Sınır Testi ile incelenmiş, kısa ve uzun dönem analizleri ARDL metoduyla yapılmıştır. 2010:01-2020:03 arası dönem için yapılan araştırmada elde edilen sonuçlar, petrol fiyatının doğal gaz fiyatına etkisinin literatürdeki araştırmalar kadar olmasa da sürdüğünü göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğal Gaz Fiyatı
• Avrupa Gaz Piyasası
• Petrol Fiyatına Bağlılık
• ARDL tahmini

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS PRICE AND OIL PRICE – BOUNDS TEST APPROACH

Öz

This study investigates the existence of an independent natural gas price. European markets are considered as the subject of study. The existence of the decoupling of the natural gas price from the oil price was examined, the monthly average border entry price announced by the German Federal Export Control Office (BAFA) as the natural gas price, and the monthly average Brent crude oil price as the oil price. The cointegration of the series was examined with the Bounds Test, and the short and long term analyzes were made by the ARDL method. The results obtained in the study conducted for the period between 2010: 01-2020: 03 show that the effect of oil price on natural gas prices continues, although not as much as at the studies in the literature.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Natural Gas Price
• European Gas Market
• Oil Price Linkage
• ARDL Estimation

Kaynakça

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