Bu çalışma, döviz kurundaki değişimler ile Türkiye'nin ödemeler dengesi (ÖD) arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Çalışmada, 2000:Q1 ile 2019:Q4 dönemleri arasındaki çeyreklik veriler kullanılarak, değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkileri tahmin etmek için ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, her bir serinin I(2) olup olmadığından emin olmak için, birim kök testi olarak Augmented Dickey-Fuller ve Phillips-Perron testlerine başvurulmuştur. Veriler Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) ve TÜİK veri tabanlarından elde edilmiştir. Çalışmada, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını kontrol etmek için sınır eşbütünleşme testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, döviz kuru ve dışa açıklığın uzun dönemde anlamsız olduğunu, TÜFE, reel GSYİH ve faiz oranının ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak kısa dönemde döviz kuru, TÜFE ve reel GSYH'ın BOP'u etkileyen önemli faktörler olduğu bulunmuştur.
Afolabi, B., and Sherif, A. (2017). The Analysis of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Nigeria’s Balance of Payments. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, issue (163)
Ahmad, N., Ahmed, R., Khoso, I., Palwishah, R., & Raza, U. (2014). Impact of exchange rate on balance of payment: An investigation from Pakistan. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 5(13), 2222-1697.
Alawattage, U. P. (2009). Exchange rate, competitiveness and balance of payment performance. Staff Studies, 35(1).
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
Frenkel, J. A., & Johnson, H. G. (1976). The monetary approach to the balance of payments: essential concepts and historical origins. The monetary approach to the balance of payments, 21-45.
Gebremariam, T. K., Batu, M. M., & Tola, S. (2018). The effect of real effective exchange rate on balance of payments in Ethiopia: A co-integrated VAR approach. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 10(12), 156-165.
Iyoboyi, M., & Muftau, O. (2014). Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Cogent Economics & Finance, 2(1), 923323.
Kandil, M. (2004). Exchange rate fluctuations and economic activity in developing countries: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Development, 29, 85-108.
Lerner, A.P. (1944). Economics of Control: Principles of Welfare Economics‟. The Macmillian Company. N.Y.
Levacic, R., and Rebmann, A. (1982). Macroeconomics; London, Macmillian Publishers Ltd, Pp. 89-100.
Marshall, A. (1923). Money, credit and commerce‟, London, Macmillan.
Odili, O. (2014). Exchange rate and balance of payment: An autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric investigation on Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(6), 21-30.
Pilbeam, K. (1998). International Finance, 2nd Edition. Palgrave Macmillan Texts in Economics, Macmillan, London.
Salasevicius, R. and Vaicius, P. (2003). Exchange Rate Relationship: Testing the Marshall-Lerner Condition in the Baltic States. Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. SSE Riga Working Papers 2003: 13(48).
Whitman, Marina V. N. (1975). The Payments Adjustment Process and the Exchange Rate Regime: What Have We Learned? The American Economic Review, 65(2), 133-146.
EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE
This study examines the relationship between exchange rate changes and the BOP of TÜRKİYE. While utilizing quarterly data ranging from 2000:Q1 to 2019:Q4, the study employs ARDL approach to estimate the long run and the short run relationship between the mentioned variables. To make it sure that none of the series are I(2), the study uses Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron tests for unit root testing of the series. Data are taken from the Central Bank of the Republic of TÜRKİYE (CBRT) and TURKSTAT databases. The study used bound cointegration testing approach to check for the existence of the long run relationship between the variables. The findings indicate that exchange rate and openness are insignificant in the long run, while CPI, real GDP, and IR were found to be statistically significant. Whereas the exchange rate, CPI, and real GDP are the factors significantly influencing the BOP in the short run.
Afolabi, B., and Sherif, A. (2017). The Analysis of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Nigeria’s Balance of Payments. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, issue (163)
Ahmad, N., Ahmed, R., Khoso, I., Palwishah, R., & Raza, U. (2014). Impact of exchange rate on balance of payment: An investigation from Pakistan. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 5(13), 2222-1697.
Alawattage, U. P. (2009). Exchange rate, competitiveness and balance of payment performance. Staff Studies, 35(1).
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
Frenkel, J. A., & Johnson, H. G. (1976). The monetary approach to the balance of payments: essential concepts and historical origins. The monetary approach to the balance of payments, 21-45.
Gebremariam, T. K., Batu, M. M., & Tola, S. (2018). The effect of real effective exchange rate on balance of payments in Ethiopia: A co-integrated VAR approach. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 10(12), 156-165.
Iyoboyi, M., & Muftau, O. (2014). Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Cogent Economics & Finance, 2(1), 923323.
Kandil, M. (2004). Exchange rate fluctuations and economic activity in developing countries: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Development, 29, 85-108.
Lerner, A.P. (1944). Economics of Control: Principles of Welfare Economics‟. The Macmillian Company. N.Y.
Levacic, R., and Rebmann, A. (1982). Macroeconomics; London, Macmillian Publishers Ltd, Pp. 89-100.
Marshall, A. (1923). Money, credit and commerce‟, London, Macmillan.
Odili, O. (2014). Exchange rate and balance of payment: An autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric investigation on Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(6), 21-30.
Pilbeam, K. (1998). International Finance, 2nd Edition. Palgrave Macmillan Texts in Economics, Macmillan, London.
Salasevicius, R. and Vaicius, P. (2003). Exchange Rate Relationship: Testing the Marshall-Lerner Condition in the Baltic States. Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. SSE Riga Working Papers 2003: 13(48).
Whitman, Marina V. N. (1975). The Payments Adjustment Process and the Exchange Rate Regime: What Have We Learned? The American Economic Review, 65(2), 133-146.
Waqar, S. M. (2023). EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE. Finans Ekonomi Ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8(3), 516-525. https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.1132085