BANKA MÜŞTERİLERİNİN SERGİLEDİKLERİ DAVRANIŞSAL EĞİLİMLERİN BULANIK AHP YÖNTEMİ İLE ANALİZİ

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3, 759 - 773, 09.10.2023

Yusuf Güneysu , Salih Aydın

https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.1317366

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’deki ticari banka ve katılım bankası müşterilerinin sergiledikleri davranışsal eğilimleri önem sırasına göre ağırlıklandırmak ve farklı banka müşterilerinin davranışsal eğilimlerinde önem sırasına göre farklılık olup olmadığını ortaya koymaktır. Bu kapsamda hazırlanan anket formu bireylere ulaştırılmış ve elde edilen veriler bulanık Analitik Hiyerarşi Prosesi (AHP) yöntemi ile değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda ticari banka müşterileri için en etkili üç ana kriterin aşırı güven eğilimi, temsiliyet eğilimi ve sürü eğiliminin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Katılım bankası müşterileri açısından en önemli eğilimlerin muhafazakârlık eğilimi, aşırı güven eğilimi ve temsiliyet eğilimi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bankacılık işlemlerinde hem ticari bankaları hem de katılım bankalarını tercih eden müşteriler için ise aşırı güven eğilimi, muhafazakârlık eğilimi ve temsiliyet eğilimi önem arz etmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre farklı bankacılık türlerinde işlem yapan bireylerin sergiledikleri eğilimler arasında önem bakımından farklılıklar olduğu söylenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Davranışsal Finans, Yatırımcı Eğilimleri, Yatırım Davranışı

ANALYZING THE BEHAVIORAL BIASES OF BANK CUSTOMERS WITH THE FUZZY AHP METHOD

Öz

The aim of the study was to weigh the behavioral biases of commercial bank and participation bank customers in Turkey in order of significance and to reveal whether there is a difference in behavioral biases of individuals. The questionnaire form prepared in this context was delivered to the individuals and the data obtained were evaluated using the fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. As a result of the study, it was found that the three most effective main criteria for commercial bank customers are overconfidence, representation, and herding biases. The most important biases for the participation bank customers were determined as conservatism, overconfidence, and representation biases. Overconfidence, conservatism, and representation biases were determined as important for customers who prefer both commercial and participation banks in banking transactions. The results show that there are differences between the biases exhibited by individuals who transacted in different types of banking.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Behavioral Finance, Bank Customer, Investor Bias, Investment Behavior, Fuzzy AHP

Kaynakça

• ACKERT, L., & DEAVES, R. (2009). Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets. Cengage Learning.
• AHMAD, M., & WU, Q. (2022). Does Herding Behavior Matter in Investment Management and Perceived Market Efficiency? Evidence from an Emerging Market. Management Decision, 60(8), 2148-2173.
• AHSAN, S. M., & MALIK, H. (2016). Moderating Role of Conservatism Bias in Personality Traits and Investment Management. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2812604.
• ANDREASSEN, P.B, & KRAUS, S.J. (1990). Judgmental Extrapolation and the Salience of Change. Journal of Forecasting, 9(4), 347-372.
• ARMANSYAH, R. F. (2021). Overconfidence, Mental Accounting, and Loss Aversion in Investment Decision. Journal of Auditing, Finance, and Forensic Accounting, 9(1), 44-53.
• AYDIN, S. & GÜNEYSU, Y. (2022). The Intermediation Role of Risk Bias Between Overconfidence and Investment Performance: A Research in Borsa Istanbul. International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, (37), 157-172.
• AZIZ, B., & KHAN, M. A. (2016). Behavioral Factors Influencing Individual Investor’s Investment Decision and Performance, Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange. International Journal of Research in Finance and Marketing (IJRFM), 6(7), 74-86.
• BARBER, B.M., & ODEAN, T. (2000). Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. The Journal of Finance, 55 (2), 773-806.
• BARBERIS, N., SHLEIFER, A., &VISHNY, R., A (1998). Model of Investor Sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49, 307–343.
• BASHIR, T., AAQIBA, J., USMAN, A., USMAN ILYAS, M., & MUBASHAR, M. N. (2013). Empirical Testing of Heuristics Interrupting the Investor’s Rational Decision Making. European Scientific Journal, 9(28), 185–191.
• BATMUNKH, M. U., CHOIJIL, E., VIEITO, J. P., ESPINOSA-MÉNDEZ, C., & WONG, W. K. (2020). Does Herding Behavior Exist in the Mongolian Stock Market?. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 62, 101352.
• BEN-DAVID, I., J. R. GRAHAM, AND C. R. HARVEY. (2008). Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies. NBER Working Paper, 13711, Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13711/w13711.pdf.
• CAPARRELLI, F., D’ARCANGELIS, A.M., & CASSUTO, A. (2004). Herding in the Italian Stock Market: A Case of Behavioral Finance. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 5(4), 222-230.
• CHANDRA, P. (2017). Behavioural Finance (1st Ed.), Mcgraw Hill Education.
• CHANG, D. Y. (1996). Applications of the Extent Analysis Method on Fuzzy AHP. European Journal of Operational Research, 95(3), 649-655.
• CHEN, G., KIM, K.A., NOFSINGER, J.R., & RUI, O.M. (2007). Trading Performance, Disposition Effect, Overconfidence, Representativeness Bias, and Experience of Emerging Market Investors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 451, 425-451.
• CHEN, T. (2013). Do Investors Herd in Global Stock Markets?. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 14(3), 230-239.
• CHERONO, I., OLWENY, T., & NASIEKU, T. (2019). Investor Behavior Biases and Stock Market Reaction in Kenya. Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 9(1), 147-180.
• CIPRIANI, M., & GUARINO, A. (2008). Herd Behavior and Contagion in Financial Markets. The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics. 8(1), 1-54.
• DE BONDT, W. (1993). Betting on Trends: Intuitive Forecasts of Financial Risk and Return. International Journal of Forecasting, 9, 355-371.
• DE BONDT, W. & THALER, R.H. (1995). Financial Decision-Making in Markets and Firms: A Behavioral Perspective, in Jarrow, R.A., Maksimovic, V. and Ziemba, W.T. (Eds), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, (9), North Holland, Amsterdam, 385-410.
• DOUKAS, J.A., & MCKNIGHT, P.J. (2005). European Momentum Strategies, Information Diffusion, and Investor Conservatism. European Financial Management, 11(3), 313–338.
• FACHRUDIN, K. R., LUMBANRAJA, P., SADALIA, I., & LUBIS, A. N. (2017). Analysis of Heuristic Behavior on Investment Decision. International Journal of Economic Research, 14(20), 297–309.
• GERVAIS, S., & ODEAN, T. (2001). Learning to Be Overconfident. Review of Financial Studies, 14(1), 1-27.
• GOODFELLOW, C., BOHL, M.T., & GEBKA, B. (2009). Together We Invest? Individual and Institutional Investors’ Trading Behaviour in Poland. International Review of Financial Analysis, 18(4), 212-221.
• GRETHER, D.M. (1992). Testing Bayes Rule and the Representativeness Heuristic: Some Experimental Evidence. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 17(1), 31-57.
• GRINBLATT, M., & KELOHARJU, M. (2000). The Investment Behaviour and Performance of Various Investor Types: A Study of Finland’s Unique Data Set. Journal of Financial Economics, 55, 43-67.
• GÜNDOĞDU, E. (2022). View of the Banking Sector from A Behavioral Finance Perspective (Unpublished Master’s Thesis). Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University, Turkey.
• GÜNEYSU, Y., ER, B., & AR, İ. (2015). Analysing Performance of Commercial Banks in Turkey with AHP and GRA Method. Karadeniz Technical University Institute of Social Sciences Journal of Social Sciences, 5(9), 71-93.
• HIRSH, J. B., DEYOUNG, C. G., XU, X., & PETERSON, J. B. (2010). Compassionate Liberals and Polite Conservatives: Associations of Agreeableness with Political Ideology and Moral Values. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 36(5), 655-664.
• HOMBURG, C., & J. NASEV. (2008). How Timely Are Earnings When Costs Are Sticky? Implication for Link Between Conditional Conservatism and Cost Stickiness. Management Accounting Section (MAS) Meeting Paper, Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1187082.
• HUNGURU, P., SIBANDA, V., & TADU, R. (2020). Determinants of Investment Decisions: A Study of Individual Investors on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. Applied Economics and Finance, 7(5), 38-53.
• JAIN, N., & KESARI, B. (2019). Effect of Conservatism Bias and Self-Attribution Bias on Financial Risk Tolerance of Investors. Gap Gyan-An International Peer-Reviewed Open Access Journal of Social Sciences, 2(1), 83-87.
• JAIN, J., WALIA, N., & GUPTA, S. (2020). Evaluation of Behavioral Biases Affecting Investment Decision Making of Individual Equity Investors by Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. Review of Behavioral Finance, 12(3), 297-314.
• JAIN, J., WALIA, N., SINGH, S., & JAIN, E. (2021). Mapping the Field of Behavioural Biases: A Literature Review Using Bibliometric Analysis. Management Review Quarterly, 72, 823–855.
• JAIN, J., WALIA, N., KAUR, M., & SINGH, S. (2022a). Behavioural Biases Affecting Investors’ Decision-Making Process: A Scale Development Approach. Management Research Review, 45(8), 1079-1098.
• JAIN, J., WALIA, N., GUPTA, S., AGGARWAL, K., & SINGH, S. (2022b). A Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process Framework for Stock Selection in the Indian Stock Market. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(4), e2710.
• JAVED, H., BAGH, T., & RAZZAQ, S. (2017). Herding Effects, Overconfidence, Availability Bias and Representativeness as Behavioral Determinants of Perceived Investment Performance: An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Journal of Global Economics, 6(1), 1-13.
• JOST, J. T., GLASER, J., KRUGLANSKI, A. W., & SULLOWAY, F. J. (2003). Political Conservatism as Motivated Social Cognition. Psychological Bulletin, 129(3), 339-375.
• KAHNEMAN, D., & FREDERICK, S. (2002). Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment, in Gilovich, T., Griffin, D. and Kahneman, D. (Eds), Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, 49-81.
• KAHRAMAN, C., CEBECI, U., & ULUKAN, Z. (2003). Multi‐Criteria Supplier Selection Using Fuzzy AHP. Logistics Information Management, 16(6), 382-394.
• KANSAL, P., & SINGH, S. (2018). Determinants of Overconfidence Bias in Indian Stock Market. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 10(4), 381–394.
• KARTINI, K., & NAHDA, K. (2021). Behavioral Biases on Investment Decision: A Case Study in Indonesia. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(3), 1231–1240.
• KENGATHARAN, L., & KENGATHARAN, N. (2014), The Influence of Behavioral Factors in Making Investment Decisions and Performance: Study on Investors of Colombo Stock Exchange, Sri Lanka. Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, 6(1), 1-23.
• KIM, W., & WEI, S.J. (2002), Foreign Portfolio Investors Before and During a Crisis. Journal of International Economics, 56(1), 77-96.
• KISHOR, N. (2020). Development and Validation of Behavioral Biases Scale: A SEM Approach. Review of Behavioral Finance, 14(2), 237-259.
• KOO, J. H., & YANG, D. (2018). Managerial Overconfidence, Self-Attribution Bias, and Downwardly Sticky Investment: Evidence from Korea. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(1), 144-161.
• KUMAR, S., & GOYAL, N. (2015). Behavioural Biases in Investment Decision Making–A Systematic Literature Review. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 7(1), 88-108.
• LAKONISHOK, J., SHLEIFER, A., & VISNHY, R.W. (1994). Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk. The Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1541-1578.
• LEE, Y., LIU, Y., & ROLL, R. (2004). Order Imbalances and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39(2), 327-341.
• LUO, G. Y. (2013). Conservatism Bias in the Presence of Strategic Interaction. Quantitative Finance, 13(7), 989-996.
• MAHINA, J. N., MUTURI, W., & FLORENCE, M. (2018). Effect of Self-Attribution Bias on Investment in the Rwandan Stock Market. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 18(2), 54–63.
• MESSIS, P., & ZAPRANIS, A. (2014). Herding Behaviour and Volatility in the Athens Stock Exchange. The Journal of Risk Finance, 15(5), 572-590.
• MISHRA, K. C., & METILDA, M. J. (2015). A Study on the Impact of Investment Experience, Gender, and Level of Education on Overconfidence and Self-Attribution Bias. IIMB Management Review, 27(4), 228-239.
• MITTAL, M. (2010). Study of Differences in Behavioral Biases in Investment Decision Making Between the Salaried and Business Class Investors. IUP Journal of Behavioral Finance, 7(4), 20–34.
• MORADI, M., MOSTAFAEI, Z., & MESHKI, M. (2013). A Study on Investors’ Personality Characteristics and Behavioral Biases: Conservatism Bias and Availability Bias in the Tehran Stock Exchange. Management Science Letters, 3(4), 1191-1196.
• NAVEED, F., & TAIB, H. M. (2021). Overconfidence Bias, Self-Attribution Bias and Investor Decisions: Moderating Role of Information Acquisition. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences (PJCSS), 15(2), 354-377.
• OSMAN, M., CHARY, G. R., BALLOLI, S. S., & HAFFIS, S. (2015). Sustainable Land Use Diversification and Investment Potential in Peri-Urban, Semi-Urban and Rural Areas of Telangana State, India. Indian Journal of Dryland Agricultural Research and Development, 30(1), 24-34.
• PATEL, J., ZECKHAUSER, R., & HENDRICKS, D. (1991). The Rationality Struggle: Illustrations from Financial Markets. The American Economic Review, 81(2), 232-236.
• PATTERSON, D. M., & SHARMA, V. (2007). Did Herding Cause the Stock Market Bubble of 1998-2001. University of Michigan-Dearborn, Retrieved from https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=f04d2d5ae95c23b1e4aafa4089c8dac159de2b26.
• QUDDOOS, M. U., RAFIQUE, A., KALIM, U., & SHEIKH, M. R. (2020). Impact of Behavioral Biases on Investment Performance in Pakistan: The Moderating Role of Financial Literacy. Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies, 6(4), 1199-1205.
• RICCIARDI, V., & SIMON, H.K. (2000). What Is Behavioral Finance?, Business, Education and Technology Journal, 2(2), 1-9.
• RIZWAN, K., JAVED, M. U., & KHURRAM, S. (2018). Impact of Behavioral Biases on Investment Decision Making with Moderating Role of Financial Literacy. Jinnah Business Review, 6(2), 34–41.
• RUBALTELLI, E., PASINI, G., RUMIATI, R., OLSEN, R. A., & SLOVIC, P. (2010). The Influence of Affective Reactions on Investment Decisions. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 11(3), 168-176.
• SAATY, T. L. (2008). Decision-Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process. International journal of services sciences, 1(1), 83-98.
• SANSAR, N. G. (2016). Changing Financial Flows: From Rationalism to Behavioral Finance Approach. Istanbul Gelisim University Journal of Social Sciences, 3(2), 135-150.
• SEKKAT, K., & VEGANZONES‐VAROUDAKIS, M. A. (2007). Openness, Investment Climate, And FDI in Developing Countries. Review of Development Economics, 11(4), 607-620.
• SHEFRIN, H. (2005). A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing (2nd Ed.). Burlington, MA: Elsevier Academic.
• SOPER, D. S. (2020). Informational Social Influence, Belief Perseverance, and Conservatism Bias in Web Interface Design Evaluations. IEEE Access, 8, 218765-218776.
• STATMAN, M., THORLEY, S., & VORKINK, K. (2006). Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(4), 1531-1565.
• SYARKANI, Y., & ALGHIFARI, E. S. (2022). The Influence of Cognitive Biases on Investor Decision-Making: The Moderating Role of Demographic Factors. Jurnal Siasat Bisnis, 26(2), 183-196.
• VIEIRA, E. F. S., & PEREIRA, M. S. V. (2015). Herding Behaviour and Sentiment: Evidence in A Small European Market. Revista de Contabilidad, 18(1), 78-86.
• WANG, Y. M., LUO, Y., & HUA, Z. (2008). On the Extent Analysis Method for Fuzzy AHP and Its Applications. European journal of operational research, 186(2), 735-747.
• WAWERU, N. M., MWANGI, G. G., & PARKINSON, J. M. (2014). Behavioural Factors Influencing Investment Decisions in the Kenyan Property Market. Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4(1). 26-49.
• ZADEH, L. A. (1965). Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control, 8(3), 338-353.
• ZADEH, L. A. (1988). Fuzzy Logic. Computer, 21(4), 83-93.