Türkiye’de İhracat Artışlarınınİstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisininİncelenmesi

Yıl 2016, Sayı: 616, 75 - 86, 01.06.2016

Hüseyin Altay Alper Yılmaz

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye özelinde ihracat ve istihdam arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. 2005M01-2015M09 dönemine ait aylık verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmada ilk olarak ihracat ve istihdam verilerinin durağanlıkları Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. İkinci aşamada birinci farklarında durağan olan ilgili değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmiş ve değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı kanıtlanmıştır. Uzun dönemde beraber hareket ettikleri kanıtlanan değişkenler için analizin üçüncü aşamasında Tam Düzeltilmiş En Küçük Kareler (FMOLS) yöntemi kullanılarak uzun dönem katsayı tahminlemesi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye’de 2005M01 – 2015M09 döneminde ihracat ile istihdam arasında uzun dönemli ve pozitif yönlü bir ilişki mevcuttur. Analizin son aşamasında yer alan hata düzeltme modeline göre de ihracat ve istihdam serileri arasında uzun dönem analizleri güvenilir sonuçlar vermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat, İstihdam, Eşbütünleşme

Analysing the Effect of Export on Employment in Turkish Economy

Öz

This study investigates the relationship between export volume and employment level in the Turkish economy, using monthly data for the period of 2005M01 and 2015M09. In the first part of the study, we determine the stationarity of the two series by Carrion-i Silvestre (2009) multiple structural breakpoint unit root test and we find that series are stationary at their first difference. At the second step, we estimate the cointegration relationship by introducing of Maki (2012) multiple structrural breakpoint cointegration test and we find that there is a cointegration relationship between export and employment level that means these two series are moving together in the long run. Thirdly, we estimate the long run coefficients using the method of Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). According to the result, there is a positive relationship between export volume and employment level in the long term over the period of 2005M01-2015M09. Lastly, we estimate a vector error correction (VEC) in a cointegration framework and the results indicate that a statistically significant long run eguilibrium relationship exists between the export volume and employment level in the Turkish economy

Anahtar Kelimeler

Export, Employment, Cointegration

Kaynakça

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