The Effect of Cash Flow Risk on Capital Structure Decisions

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of cash flow risk on decisions of capital structure in companies included in the BIST 100 Index (excluding financial institutions). In this study, quarterly financial data of 61 companies between the periods of 2004 and 2018 were used. By using panel regression method, in the study a negative correlation between cash flow risk and leverage ratios and profitability ratios, and a positive and statistically meaningful correlation between leverage ratios and Market to Book Value ratio and firm size were found. No statistically significant relationship was found between the leverage ratio and the ratio of tangible assets to total assets and expected inflation. According to the results of the analysis, cash flow risk is one of the determinants of the capital structure and is a factor to be considered in decisions regarding the capital structure. When there is an increase in cash flow risk, firms tend to use less debt, and therefore, the increase in cash flow risk causes a change on decisions of capital structure in favor of equity. As growth opportunities (Market to Book Value ratio) increase, firms borrow more, in other words, they prefer financial debt for financing new investments. Firms prefer financing with equity when there is an increase in profitability ratios, and financing with debt when there is a decrease in profitability ratios. If the size of the firms increases, their debt usage levels of the firms increase.

Keywords

• Cash Flow Risk
• Capital Structure
• Leverage

Nakit Akış Riskinin Sermaye Yapısı Kararlarına Etkisi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, BIST 100 Endeksi’nde yer alan işletmelerde (finansal kuruluşlar hariç) nakit akış riskinin sermaye yapısı kararları üzerine etkisini araştırmaktır. 2004-2018 döneminde 61 işletmenin çeyrek dönemlik mali tablo verileri kullanılmıştır. Panel regresyon yönteminin kullanıldığı çalışmada, kaldıraç oranı ile nakit akış riski ve karlılık oranı arasında negatif yönde, kaldıraç oranı ile Piyasa Değeri/Defter Değeri oranı ve firma büyüklüğü arasında ise pozitif yönde ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Kaldıraç oranı ile maddi duran varlıkların toplam varlıklara oranı ve beklenen enflasyon arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, nakit akış riski sermaye yapısının belirleyicilerinden biridir ve sermaye yapısına ilişkin kararlarda dikkate alınması gereken bir faktördür. Nakit akış riskinde bir artış yaşandığında işletmeler daha az borç kullanma eğiliminde olmaktadır ve dolayısıyla nakit akış riskindeki artış sermaye yapısı kararlarında özkaynaklar lehine değişime yol açmaktadır. Büyüme fırsatları (Piyasa Değeri/Defter Değeri oranı) arttıkça, işletmeler daha fazla borçlanmaktadır, diğer bir ifadeyle yeni yatırımların finansmanında borçla finansmanı tercih etmektedirler. İşletmeler, karlılık oranlarında yükseliş olduğunda öz kaynak ile finansmanı, karlılık oranında düşüş olduğunda ise borçla finansmanı tercih etmektedir. Firma büyüklüğünün artması halinde, işletmelerin borç kullanım düzeyleri yükselmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Nakit Akış Riski
• Sermaye Yapısı
• Kaldıraç

Kaynakça

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