COVID-19 Döneminde Türkiye Dış Ticaretinin Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

2021 yılında Türk lirası %44 değer kaybetti. Ticaret dengesi kur dalgalanmasından doğrudan etkilenmektedir. Öte yandan, COVID-19, Türkiye'de olduğu gibi dünyada da ticaret dengesinin önemli ölçüde etkilenmesine sebebiyet vermiştir. Bu çalışmada, COVID-19'un-Türkiye ile AB27 ülkeleri arasındaki ticareti nasıl etkilediğini değerlendirmeye çalıştık. Çeşitli dönem ve alt dönemlerini kullanarak J-eğrisi ve S-eğrisi yaklaşımlarını baz aldık. COVID-19'un ticaret dengelerini nasıl etkilediğini incelemeden önce, reel döviz kurunun ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkisi de dahil olmak üzere ilk olarak Türkiye ile AB27 arasındaki ikili ticaretin uzun vadeli ilişkilerini ele aldık. Bulgular, ilk olarak, Türkiye'nin ticaret dengesi için J-eğrisi veya S-eğrisi etkisinin olmadığı kanıtına varılmıştır. İkincisi, Türk ticaret dengesi, salgın döneminde Türk parasının reel değer kaybından dolayı yararlandığı gözlenmiştir. Pandemi öncesi korelasyonlara kıyasla, pandemi sırasında çapraz korelasyon katsayıları daha düşüktür. Türk ticaret dengesi, bir J-eğrisi veya S-eğrisi belirtisi olmasa bile, pandemi sırasında Türk lirasının değer kaybı ile birlikte COVID-19'un etkilerinden yararlanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• COVID-19
• Uluslararası Ticaret
• J Eğrisi
• Döviz Kuru
• Marshall-Lerner Koşulu

The Evaluation of Turkey's Foreign Trade during COVID-19

Abstract

The value of the Turkish currency decreased by 44% in 2021. The trade balance was directly impacted by exchange rate fluctuation. Moreover, COVID-19 had a significant impact on the trade balance globally as well as in Turkey. In this study, we attempt to assess how COVID-19 has affected trade between Turkey and the EU27 counties. We employ the J-curve and S-curve approaches using various samples and sub-samples. Before examining how COVID-19 influences trade balances, we first looked at the long-term relationship of bilateral trade between Turkey and the EU27, including the impact of the real exchange rate on the trade balance. The findings indicate that, first; there is no indication of a J-curve or an S-curve in Turkey’s trade balance. Second, the Turkish trade balance benefited more from a real fall of the Turkish currency during the pandemic era. In comparison to pre-pandemic correlations, the pandemic cross-correlation coefficients are lower. Despite some delays, it turned out well. The Turkish trade balance is improved by the weakening of the Turkish Lira and the effects of COVID-19 during the pandemic, even if there is no indication of a J-curve or an S-curve.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• International Trade
• J Curve
• Exchange Rate
• Marshall-Lener conditions

Kaynakça

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